Houston Astros Trade Matt Lindstrom to Colorado
by David Coleman on Dec 23, 2010 5:08 PM CST
in Houston Astros News
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PrintAccording to multiple reports, including this one on Fox 26 by Mark Berman and this one in the Denver Post by Troy Renck, the Houston Astros have reached an agreement to trade Matt Lindstrom to the Colorado Rockies for former University of Houston left-hander Wes Musick and right-hander Jonnathan Aristil.
Lindstrom was acquired from the Florida Marlins last winter for right-hander Robert Bono and shortstop Luis Bryan. He had an up-and-down season in Houston, blowing multiple saves and spending quite a bit of time on the disabled list with various injuries. He also struck out 43 in 53 1/3 innings with 23 saves.
Lindstrom is also in his second year of arbitration. After making 1.625 million in 2010, Lindstrom is probably in line to double his salary next season. With the Astros likely wanting to keep the payroll below 80 million and the signing of Bill Hall to a 3 million dollar contract, this move was probably inevitable. The Astros still have Brandon Lyon as a closer and a host of other bullpen options, like Rule 5 draftees Aneury Rodriguez and Lance Pendleton.
Musick is an interesting prospect. John Sickels gave him a C- grade before the 2010 season and Baseball America left him out of the Rockies Top 30 prospects, though they did leave him in the organizational depth chart as a left-handed starter. The 24-year old from Lufkin isn't big at 6-foot, 190 pounds, but he did show a good ability to strike guys out last season.
Though he was a little old for the South Atlantic League, Musick struck out 109 in 123 innings while giving up just 29 walks. After the all-star break, he upped those totals to 48 strikeouts in 55 innings with just nine walks. He's not the best prospect in the world and probably will be pushed aggressively to Corpus Christi next season, but Musick still has some potential.
Left-handers who can strike guys out and have a good ground ball rate (1.3-1.5 in his career) are not easy to come by. At the very least, Musick could be depth as a LOOGY in a season or two. At best, he could become Wandy Rodriguez, a late-blooming lefty.
Overall, this is a very pedestrian trade. The Astros probably needed to shed some payroll and a former closer who has problems with injuries was a good place to make a change. This is Lindstrom's fourth team in his career and his third in the past three years. I know many of you will be underwhelmed with this move (I was), but the fact is, Lindstrom's value couldn't have been too high. To get an interesting lefty out of the deal who has a chance to produce at the big league level could be considered a win. A slight win, true, but a win nonetheless.
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Sounds like there may be another prospect involved in the deal
So that will be good if so.
I like Musick’s numbers, though that has to be tempered by his age relative to league. Curious what kind of stuff he has.
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I dont have an iphone (yet) and im not at home, so i cant really get a look at stats, but i’m not a fan of this trade at first look. Sure hes interesting at 24 even though ARL is less important for pitchers but the sally is also a pitchers league. I really hope there is another player involved. Although the injuries and blown saves are an issue, theres a ton of potential there just like with paulino. At worst, lindstrom is a servicable bullpen arm and could be a premier setup man. Colorado is taking all of the potential the pitching staff has at the major league level.
by Subber10 on Dec 23, 2010 5:32 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Asheville stats (122 IP) 1.25 WHIP 3.23 FIP 51% GB rate 5% BB rate 21% K rate
Those are impressive stats, though all the caveats about age and Sally league apply.
122 innings seems like a lot of pitching in A ball, doesn’t it?
FWIW, Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com says that Asheville is a hitter’s park (band box, he calls it) and points to big splits in favor of road performance by Musick. This was his first full season of pro ball (he had TJ surgery) and his performance improved over the course of the season (2.78 ERA). Mayo says that the decision as to whether Musick will be a starter or reliever depends on his ability to develop a change up.
Someone at SnS quoted Baseball America:
Musick has an easy scouting report as a classic lefthander with excellent secondary stuff and a fringy fastball. Musick has a long medical history, as he had both knee surgery to repair a torn ACL and Tommy John surgery when he was in college at Houston. Musick was drafted three times—high school by the Astros in 2005, as well as 2008 and 2009—because of his feel for a curveball and an excellent changeups, which scouts rate as a plus pitch. His fastball has average velocity at 88-91 mph, and he pitched off it more in 2010, which may be why he was hit harder than a 23-year-old in the Sally League should be. The Astros have drafted mostly high school pitchers, and Musick could jump a level up to Double-A in his new organization’s young farm system.
I’m not sure if the reports or contradictory, since BA says that scouts regarded Musick’s changeup as a plus pitch, and Mayo says that Musick must develop a better change up.
The start I saw him at Lexington, like I said the FB was mostly around 92
and I sat behind the scouts to peek over on their gun. Given that the Astros org. probably saw this start, I could see why they might have a rosier impression. I agree with Mayo, the change wasn’t all that impressive, and he didn’t really use the curve. This is actually pretty typical of Rockies prospects at that level, as the team tries to get them to develop broader, more MLB useful pitch repertoires. It’s why a lot of people are probably taking a more critical stance of Tyler Matzek (who was also told not to rely so much on his plus CB for now) than they should, and putting the pieces together, it would seem that the organizational philosophy of the Rockies would have given scouts and myself a kind of FB-centric skewed look at him this year.
Apparently Ed Wade said his scout thought...
…Musick could become a Randy Wolf type starting pitcher. That sounds overly optimistic, but who knows.
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Perhaps the Astros saw something in the change-up. We know their recent drafts have focused on guys with plus change ups.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 26, 2010 5:53 PM CST up reply actions
I thought I'd reply to this since our perspective on the minor leaguers heading back to you might be beneficial.
First of all, it does appear to be mostly a salary dump, as neither Musick or Aristil have that big of a chance of making it to the MLB level, I’d say that overall that there’s a greater than 50% chance that neither does, Musick’s probably around one in four, Aristil a bit less than that, so the Rockies have the advantage of a more certain return, even if they’re going to be paying the salary for it.
If Musick does make it, his most likely role is as a LOOGY, he’s got a solid, biting low 90’s FB is his calling card and it’s a solid one, his breaking and off speed stuff is a work in progress, which of course doesn’t bode well for a prospect at his age and level. There’s a solid low rotation starter upside if everything clicks, but that’s a small likelihood. One of our Purple Row users filmed him at Asheville this season, you can see the video here.
Aristil’s a good organizational soldier with another live arm. FB/slider, but he’s a bit more flat with the FB.
Thanks, Rox Girl. Lindstrom was a tale of two seasons last year. Up until about two weeks before the All Star break, Lindstrom was basically unhittable. He was as dominating a closer as you would want. He had a hard 2 seam FB to go with his high velocity 4 seam fastball, plus a good slider. Then all of the sudden he became hittable and his control wavered. After several poor outings, the Astros rested him for back soreness. He came back and still had the same problems, but told the Astros his back was fine—which wasn’t accurate. After more bad outings, he fessed up to the fact that his back injury was affecting his performance and went on the DL, if I recall. When he came back off the DL, he was somewhat better but more inconsistent than early in the season.
If he can manage his back problem (which I suspect is doable) and get back the pitcher he was in early 2010, he will be quite a bargain for the Rockies.
Remember that Lindstrom has little value over contract
Honestly this kind of return (assuming the second minor league player is of similar quality to Musick) is about what I expected.
Lindstrom has a little more value than he did when we traded a couple low-end grade C prospects for him last year, but he’s also going to be paid more through arbitration, so it’s a wash. Seems like we’re getting back about what we gave up to get him.
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A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
I like Musick better than Aristil. Aristil looks closer to filler for AA than future major leaguer—based on his stats anyway. He is 23, got shellacked in the California league before he was moved up to Tulsa in the Texas League. AA stats: 1.46 WHIP; 16% BB rate; 20 % K rate; 6.59 FIP. A good strike out rate, but a horrible walk rate.
This seems like a somewhat better return for Lindstrom than the Astros gave the Marlins—but not by much.
meh
this trade will balance out 2012 season if not next season once these guys will mature and maybe perform decently.
by underrated&undeniable on Dec 23, 2010 6:17 PM CST reply actions
Trade is Crap
Ed Wade is CRAP. After what happened with my beloved Berkman, the way he was treated, Ed Wade can suck a bag of goat _( fill in the blank).
Ive tried to be nice, Ive tried to be calm and patient, but now looking at whats become of our team, Im just ANGRY. Im not sad, Im angry. This team is BS. Its got A LOOOONG way to go, before were in contention again. Wade has focused on Defense and bullpen and we have virtually no OPB guys, and very little power. To make things worse, we have nothing in the pipeline. STILL.
We have ONE high level prospect in Lyles and some lower level guys that could turn out and well… thats about it. Know why? Because we havent taken Best player available. We just havent. Can you honestly say Castro was the best player available? Can you say the scrub Robert somethin – forget his name (college pitcher we took in 5th round in 08 draft – that weve ALREADY released) was best player available??? No. We adhere to slot, and we get what we pay for. Our farm system might be a smidgen better than it was 3 years ago, but its not by much. Were STILL! STILL! in the bottom rankings of farm systems! Again, Wade sucks.
This team looks TERRIBLE going into the 2011 season. I mean, I hope to God CJ has the same kind of year, AND Brett Myers repeats, AND Castro finds his stroke AND Wallace does… something BUT if even 2 of those things dont happen, were quite possibly the worst team in all of baseball.
BTW, Lindstrom WILL bounce back, have a great season and he couldve been a great piece to our Bullpen. Awful trade man.
Couldve waited til AS Break
Im sure now that LIndstroms healthy hell bounce back, and we couldve got a much better return. And is it me or are yall tired of Wade getting nothing but RP’s in trades? I hope he gets a real impact player if they trade Kepp, cause there goes our very little OPB once hes gone.
Not an awful return
especially when you’re trading a pretty uncertain relief arm who is probably getting a little expensive to get two potential relief arms who could be cheap, useful assets if they pan out okay.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
I like this trade if it means that enough payroll is jettisoned that Kepp can stay on as a utility man. I also like it if it improves the odds of retaining Aneury Rodriguez.
As for Lindstrom, I liked the guy and was very happy with his first half. I thought Ed Wade had gotten another steal. But I also worry a bit about a guy who’s going to be 30+ years old with an injury history and (the most important part to me) a history of not being forthcoming about his injuries. I do kind of wish that he could have had a chance to re-up his value after the end of last year, though.
I think Wes Musick is an upgrade over Robert Bono, who Houston gave up to get Lindstrom. I like a lefty, and his K and BB rates. Just wish he was a bit less hittable. I hope he’s able to put together a solid year at AA.
Also, I’m going to get this guy repeatedly confused with Matt Cusick, who was part of the Hawkins trade.
Already had that same problem typing his name over and over in this story…Matt Musick, Wes Cusick…do not like.
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
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by David Coleman on Dec 23, 2010 9:43 PM CST up reply actions
Jeff Fulchino
Just opened a bottle of champagne. It also opens up a spot on the 40 man roster too, right?
Our one potential strength was the pen
with three potential closers we were set for the later rounds. Now we’ll look to our rookies on yet another front. We now need Fulchino to step up and hope Lyon can repeat while little Lopez is still wet behind the ears.
Yes im tired of losing what little impact players we have for nothing too promising in return. Im sure in return for Kepp we’ll get a half ass prospect and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bourn and or Pence gone during the year at which time I’ll be done watching for the year.
I agree Lindstrom will bounce back and possibly be lights out with his fastball slider combo. If he needed to be traded we definitely could have gotten more during the season. Im comfortable in sayin Rockies are going to the post season next year using some former Astros to their advantage. If we have any other power arms we should package them in a deal to the Rockies as well. No need for a trade we apparently don’t need a return.
Are we ever going to get a good bat in a trade?
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 24, 2010 1:22 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Be careful not to overvalue Keppinger, the Astros gave up Drew Sutton to acquire him.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 26, 2010 5:56 PM CST up reply actions
Oswalt, Berkman, Paulino, Lindstrom
Did we get an equal or greater return on any of those trades?
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No.
I argue that with the utmost certainty, though with some serious luck, the Lindstrom return may end up decent. It seemed like they may have sacrificed prospect value for salary relief in dealing Oswalt and Berkman.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
The Astros sent substantial money to the Phillies and Yankees in order to get prospects for Oswalt and Berkman. So, I certainly hope that prospect value wasn’t sacrificed for salary relief in those trades. I think that Oswalt’s and Berkman’s use of their no trade clause to elminate potential trades is one of the main reasons that the Astros didn’t get equivalent value.
The Lindstrom trade is primarily a salary dump, as others have said. I second the comments about the advantage of waiting to see if Lindstrom would improve his trade value during the season. Right now, Lindstrom has too much uncertainty for a team to rely on using him as a closer. And his salary will be high for a non-closer position.
Maybe my rage towards
the Astros actually kicking in a fair amount of money on each (it’s fucking Philadelphia and the Yankees, for fuck’s sakes. I am so damn pissed about it.) is distorting my perception of the value received. I would’ve liked a perhaps lighter version of what the Indians got for Cliff Lee (which was even then, considered a little underwhelming) for Oswalt, but I guess ML-ready 2 WAR ceiling type players in Happ and Wallace (of course swapped for Gose in a pretty even trade – I didn’t really want to get in on the Gose lottery ticket), and a decent MI prospect in Villar was passable – though a more impact talent as a centrepiece would’ve been nice. Berkman return was probably about what you could’ve hoped for – a little less than what I would’ve wished, but an aging DH having a poor year, due for FA? That return is fine.
I would’ve felt a lot, lot better if the Astros hadn’t thrown that much cash though. I mean, I still would’ve felt underwhelmed, but considering the payroll problems that are appearing now…
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
Relative
To what the Astros sent the Marlins in the first place. I would say that the Astros did get greater return for Lindstrom.
Getting Melancon and other prospects for 2 months of Berkman (1 of which he spent on the DL) wasn’t bad either. The Astros were going to decline his option anyway.
My question to all
After just one year of Lindstrom, we trade him. Since Lindstrom was only here for a year, we virtually traded Robert Bono and Luis Bryan for Cusick and Aristil. What do you think of this return, when broken down from the original trade that brought Lindstrom here.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Dec 24, 2010 8:47 AM CST reply actions
?* After all I was asking a question
by SteveBartman_MVP on Dec 24, 2010 8:48 AM CST up reply actions
I think the Astros received more in value from the Rockies than they gave up to the Marlins. Bono seems comparable to Aristil, in terms of a pitcher who adds depth to AA. Luis Bryan is very young, making it hard to say a lot about him, but his offense appears to be very weak. I think Musick has a better chance to help out at the major league level, given his potential to become a LOOGY.
Luis Bryan, I feel, was not even close to comparable to either of the players the Astros received with the Lindstrom trade. Over the last two seasons, with a total of 225 at-bats, Bryan walked twice. Twice! That’s not very good plate discipline.
I like Musick a little bit better than Bono, with a caveat. First, Musick being a LHP means there’s a very clear path to the majors as a LOOGY. Second, they each pitched a full season in the Sally League and while Musick had decent looking walk and strikeout rates (1.9 BB/9 with 8.0 K/9), Bono’s seemed lackluster (1.2 BB/9 with 4.1 K/9). The caveat is that Musick was 23 years old when he pitched in the Sally League, so we’d expect him to have the edge over his competitors, whose average age was closer to 21.
I think Aristil’s odds of making it to the majors and staying there are rather slim. His walk rates are bit scary. But he will at the very least provide depth in the minors.
More moves to come
Well the Astros did one thing right. Is to trade a pitcher for 2 pitchers. Now is there going to be anymore trades the Astros going to do before Spring training begins. I would like to see one or two made. Is the Astros going to trade anybody for a Left hand batter to play Left field, & trade to get another starting pitcher. Are they looking to see who is a free agent, well maybe they will find somebody. I like the Astros go after Brandon Webb as a starting pitcher. Happy Holidays to everybody I will be praying the Astros get the right players. Larry _Lubbock Tx
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