Two Answers For Ed Wade?: Astros Offseason Talk
by David Coleman on Dec 2, 2010 1:26 PM CST
in Houston Astros News
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PrintContinuing my line of question-based headlines, here's one for you to ponder. The Seattle Mariners appear poised to non-tender second baseman/third baseman Jose Lopez and the Arizona Diamondbacks have reportedly non-tendered lefty outfielder Ryan Church. Can you guess which move I'm going to advocate for and which one I'll avoid?
For starters, Jose Lopez may not be a viable candidate to play second base again. From what I've been hearing, he was out of shape as a third baseman and has serious questions about whether he can regain his previous form. Writers around the country yesterday started jumping on the "Do the So-and-So's need Lopez?" bandwagon, thinking he can still be that all-star player. After reading some of the local press on him, I'm not convinced he'll bounce back. I'm not even convinced he's an upgrade over Jeff Keppinger. Lopez doesn't walk as much, hasn't shown consistent gap power in his career and probably plays a little worse defense than Kepp. The only thing he has over our own Scrappy-Do is he can occasionally hit home runs. I even doubt that part of his skill set, since he's hit more than 20 only once in his career and saw a precipitous drop in his homer and double total last season. So, no, the Astros should not go after Lopez.
Church, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense as that platoon partner for Jason Michaels out in left field. Church has shown no ability to hit right-handers in the past few seasons, but hit .290/.350/.405 against right-handers as recently as 2009. Yes, he's 32 and yes, he's been really bad overall the past few years. Also, little trivia fact, he has never hit a home run at Minute Maid Park.
Still, Church is one of the few decent left-handed outfielders on the market right now. Would I prefer someone like Scott Hairston or Tony Gwynn, Jr.? Nope. Hairston may have more power potential, but he's never been consistent enough to think he could do it as the everyday left fielder. And that's what we're talking about if we take anyone who's not left handed for this spot. Have you seen the list of free agent outfielders? It's seriously depressing. We're talking, Garret Anderson, Rick Ankiel, Scotty Pods, Bill Hall...Looking through their stat lines is like looking at replacement level players over and over and over again.
Is Church the only answer? Nope, probably not. But, if the Astros can get him for a reasonable salary (1 million?), he makes sense. In fact, that'd be my negotiating strategy with these guys. Say, "We have 1 million to spend. Who's taking it?"* These guys are all interchangeable, anyways, right?
*And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why I am NOT a general manager of a major league baseball team.
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I’ll remember that in 2016 when we’re having to move him to first base.
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson
by David Coleman on Dec 2, 2010 2:08 PM CST up reply actions
I highly doubt he gains that much weight.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 2, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions
You convinced me on Ryan Church. I’d sign on for that.
What do you think about Hideki Okajima as a bullpen lefty, as opposed to plucking a Rule 5 guy.
Okajima probably has some potential as a LOOGY. His BABIP blew up last year. But his performance against LHBs was good. I’m not so confident about using him as a regular reliever, though. I don’t know if he will cost more than you want to spend on a LOOGY. His 2010 salary was 2.5 Million. After a down year, Boston didn’t want to go to arbitration and possibly have to pay him $3.5 Million. If he would sign for $1.5 Million, it would be a good deal. At a higher price, I don’t know. He has one more year of arbitration after 2011. So, he would be still be cost controlled in 2012 if he is signed as a free agent.
By the way, I noticed that he had a really high infield fly rate (over 25%). He has been criticized for a declining K rate last year, but I wonder if the high infield fly rate is the reason.
Just curious...
What is Church’s UZR rating and how does that compare to Carlos Lee? If Church isn’t a huge upgrade over Lee, and I’m assuming he’s not, then what’s the point in signing him?
I understand the need for a lefthanded bat for an outfield spot, but Church doesn’t strike as a good fit for the Astros.
I still have yet to understand why the Astros don’t just leave Carlos at LF. Yes, the guy is horrible defensively, but there aren’t really any better (affordable) options out there and we really should give Brett Wallace a true shot at 1B.
Church would be a defensive upgrade in LF over Lee. In 272 plays in LF in his career, his UZR/150 is 6.1. Carlos Lee, on the other hand, hasn’t had a positive UZR/150 since 2004. He posted a -21.1 UZR/150 in LF last year. That works out to about a game and a half or two games difference in Church’s favor on defense.
The better question would be who isn’t an upgrade over Carlos Lee.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 2, 2010 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
But what does this all mean...
for Brett Wallace?
The guy needs to get ABs and he’s not going to get that platooning with Carlos. So, he either rots on the bench for a season or two (not good) or he keeps playing at AAA (also bad).
Let’s give the Wallace a shot to see if he can play! You guys really can’t tolerate another season of Carlos Lee in LF? Seriously, what do we have to lose by doing this? This team IS NOT built to win pennants, much less the Central!
I’m with you on Wallace playing this year but I’m not as opposed to Wallace spending a little time in Triple A as I once was.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 2, 2010 3:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Why is it bad for Wallace to play at AAA in 2011?
Although he hit well in his partial season in AAA ball this year (.301/.359/.509), he did it in a hitter friendly park. We’ve had some analysis here on the website showing there are some mechanical issues that Wallace can work on, whether it be shortening his swing or being more consistent with his weight shift.
He’ll still only be 24 years old next season…if he needs a little bit more tuning up in AAA to reach his full potential as the “hitting machine” that Wade/Heck saw in him, then that’s what should happen.
At some point...
Someone needs to have/show confidence in his abilities. (The guy wasn’t a first rounder for nothing!)
The great thing about the 2011 Astros is that there are absolutely no expectations for this team. They’ve got a bunch of kids who can just go out and play free of pressure—and that’s the perfect sort of environment for Wallace to get at-bats, learn the ropes, and even struggle in.
The problem I have with keeping him at AAA is that he’s already had two full seasons and close to 1000 ABs there. I just don’t see how keeping him down is going to help any. Let’s let him move up to the next level and be playing everyday.
Earn your job
It just means that Wallace will have to hit his way to a job it won’t be given to him. That’s how it should be—especially after his struggles last year.
Do not want Church.
I like Bill Hall. Versatile, inexpensive, has put up good #’s in the past.
Brad Hawpe is another guy I wouldn’t mind.
Media outlets keep mentioning 3 needs (OF, IF, SP), but I will be surprised if we acquire 3 more players. Other than the posiibility of a trade for an infielder, I think they let the young guys and minor league FAs compete for the 2 uncommitted roster spots.
Thoughts
1) I agree with Timmy, and agree is an understatement!
2) I have seen church hit MONSTER home runs in BP at Minute Maid and yes pretty much anybody is an upgrade over carlos defensively. At least he hustles though unlike Manny
3) How many extra runs did we lose by having Lee in left? Whether its his lack of range, his bobbling of the ball or his piss poor ability to throw the ball he is just bad. Overall as a team we are better with him at 1st.
4) Carl if you’re reading this…come home! Give us, your home town team, one year? You can hang out with your ol friends and see moms a bit…what do ya say, help us out a bit? The Crawford Boxes got your name on it…
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 2, 2010 2:54 PM CST via mobile reply actions
The only reason Carlos Lee hasn’t high five’d anyone in the Crawford Boxes is because upon landing he would make Houston a big sinkhole.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 2, 2010 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
Jose Lopez
I disagree somewhat on Lopez. I don’t think he is a bad fit for a Geoff Bllum type role on the team. I also think that a back up at 3d base who can be a legitimate starter is prudent, because of the possibility that Chris Johnson’s BABIP will fall to earth and leave a hole at the position. No, Lopez will not be a star player, but I think there is pretty chance of a rebound. Lopez’s BABIP was depressed last year, compared to his career BABIP. He is almost the yin to CJ’s yang.
Also, the advanced metrics indicate that Lopez is a good defensive player at 3d base. Last year, he was 7.5, UZR/150, and +15 on UZR. Total zone also had him with a high positive value. The advanced metrics also indicate that Lopez is a major improvement over Keppinger at 2d base. UZR has Lopez at basically average at 2d base, and DRS shows consistent positive values (3 last year) at 2d base.
My main reason for thinking that Lopez could be a fit as a utility player is that he currently plays at Safeco Field which destroys left field power more than any ballpark in the majors. That’s why the Red Sox decision to sign Adrian Beltre was so smart last year; it was predictable that he would have a spike in offensive performance in moving from the worst LF to the best LF, from an offensive standpoint.
Whether Lopez will sign for a low enough salary (say, $1.5 million), I don’t know.
I also have always liked Bill Hall as a utility player and platoon player. Unfortunately, I don’t think he will be cheap; he proved his value to the Red Sox last year, and given the lack of choices on the market, I think he will be in fair demand. If he could be signed cheaply, I would go for it. But I think he will get a $5 million contract.
Lopez a backup
From what I remember hearing, Lopez is the grumpy type and probably wouldn’t accept a backup role. Keppinger can always slide over to third if Johnson struggles and Sanchez can be a stopgap at second.
Lopez to the Rockies
Jose Lopez is sent to the Rockies. Whether he likes it or not, he will probably be a back up at both 3d base and 2d base—-probably picking up the at bats that Barmes would have gotten. Don’t be surprised if Lopez responds with a big year. As fangraphs shows, all of Lopez’s fly balls go to LF, and he is moving from a 84 park factor for RH HRs to 117 in Coors.
I would very much like to get Bill Hall
but you’re probably right, he might cost a little more than the Astros could afford.
Logically, I guess I saw Jose Lopez as a potential bounceback candidate, but I did watch him swing and try to pull every pitch he got thrown. Suppose it doesn’t really matter now.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
Matt Albers was non-tendered—- if anyone thinks it would be a good idea to bring him back to the Astros.
Sammy Gervacio non-tendered
according to MLBTR..wtf?
Relievers are easily replaceable especially for Waiver Wire Eddie, but the Astros by all indications still hope to sign him.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 2, 2010 6:09 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Update...injury seems to be the concern.
McTaggert’s quotes from Wade indicate that Gervacio’s injury is still a problem. It’s been 7 months since he was put on the DL in AAA, and he still has a sore rotator cuff. Wade says that if Gervacio had been tendered, he might end up on the ML disabled list all season and tie up a ML roster spot.
Albers?
Would make better sense if he was a lefty but our pen is pretty much set, and strong for that matter. I am basing that on the hope, which is a mistake I know, that Arias and Gervacio make strong recoveries and jump back in where they left off.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 2, 2010 5:49 PM CST via mobile reply actions
If the Astros aren’t going to pick up any bigger FAs for the No. 5 starter spot, how about signing Albers to a NRI and letting him compete with Figueroa for the No. 5 rotation spot? The loser of the competition goes to the bullpen. Albers hasn’t started any ML games since 2008, but his fastball velocity and good groundball rate indicates that he still has a power sinker. I have read that the Orioles have been frustrated by his conditioning and inconsistency. If he came back to his hometown, maybe he would realize that he is approaching his last chance.
WHAT?!!
He is like a lil Carlos Marmol! How can you risk that?
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 2, 2010 6:30 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I like former Ranger and Reds OF...
Lance Nix, who is a free agent. His numbers from last year stink, maybe he was injured. But his numbers from the previous year are terrific. He’s a lefty, has played LF probably more than CF or RF. To top it all off, he was born in Houston, Texas! I think he’s much better than Church, Hawpe or Hall. When Hall was a Brewer, he was basically a utility player who played against lefties only. He was terrible against RHP.
Nothing wrong with Nix's 2010 season...
He just didn’t get the same playing time because the Reds had so many good outfielders. His OPS was better last year than 2009. I would take his 2010 results if he were an Astros hitter: .291, .350, .455, .805. He would have been one of the better offensive players on the Astros in 2010. On top of that, he is a plus defensive outfielder, who can play all three positions.
I like nix
But id like to know what happened to him last year.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 2, 2010 8:15 PM CST via mobile reply actions
But if we were to get nix
we’d have to get Berkman to get the Lances together. Then they can joust! We need to trade some of our minor league outfielders (Locke Bog maybe even Shuck) for a pitcher with potential. SP are going to get expensive soon
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 2, 2010 9:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions
What do you guys think of Kevin Correia as a fifth starter?
His story is inspiring and he was pretty damn good in 09.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Dec 4, 2010 4:42 PM CST reply actions
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