NL Central in 2011 Chances?
by Jake Sumeraj on Dec 12, 2010 6:45 PM CST
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I have read more than one article in the past few weeks about how some experts believe that the Astros have a chance at winning the NL Central next year. Every one says that our rotation and core of young players is enough to at least contend, and possibly even be atop the standings after 162 games next year. Personally, I think that this is a long shot, but it definitely is possible. Houston had a great second half in 2010 after the Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman deals. On top of the second half success, our young players (ex. CJ, Castro, Wallace, and young bullpen) are going to become more comfortable to the big leagues. It definitely is possible to win the division next year.
This is what our lineup and rotation will look like in 2011 as of right now:
1. Michael Bourn CF
2. Jeff Keppinger 2B (if he stays)
3. Hunter Pence RF
4. Carlos Lee LF (BLEH...)
5. Chris Johnson 3B
6. Brett Wallace 1B
7. Clint Barmes SS
8. Jason Castro C
9. Pitcher
1. Brett Myers
2. J.A. Happ
3. Wandy Rodriguez
4. Bud Norris
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith/ Nelson Figureoa/Aneury Rodriguez/Jordan Lyles/etc.
How do you think that looks?
I think that if we're going to be successful in 2011, we have to sign or trade for someone who is going to hit 20+ HRs, our offense needs serious help.
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If we sign Bill Hall, start him at 2B, put Keppinger in bench role, then we’d have a guy possibly hitting 20+ homers. I like Keppinger, but our team is filled with average guys.
Jason Castro is nice & stuff, but Buster would rather have fried chicken like any other good southun' boy.
If we sign Bill Hall, or any second baseman for that matter, I think that Keppinger will have to be traded. Kepp hit over .280 last year, and I’m sure that he has some value in the free agent market this year. I say sign a second baseman that can hit for some power, and trade Keppinger for pitching help, a left fielder, or whatever Wade thinks we could use the most.
by Jake Sumeraj on Dec 12, 2010 7:52 PM CST up reply actions
We will definitely be better than Pittsburgh.
We will probably be better than the Cubs.
We will probably not be better than Cincinatti.
We will definitely not be as good as St. Louis.
To be in the mix to win the division, we would need EVERYTHING to go right: breakout years from Wallace, Norris, Castro, and whoever the 5th starter ends up being, a repeat year for Johnson and Myers, a return to form for Lee, and par years from Kepp, Pence, Wandy, and Bourn. Not likely.
That said, I expect we’ll be very competitive and hover around .500. Houston will need to add another all-star pitcehr and power hitter before they will be favored to make the playoffs and/or win the division. Cincy and STL have deep quality rotations and much more potent offenses.
Quick current roster comparison:
Chicago Cincinatti Houston Pittsburgh St. Louis
C Soto Hanigan Castro Doumit Molina
1B Pena Votto Lee Jones Pujols
2B DeWitt Phillips Keppinger Walker Shumaker
SS Castro Janish Sanchez Cedeno Theriot
3B Ramirez Rolen Johnson Alvarez Craig
RF Byrd Bruce Pence Milledge Berkman
CF Fukudome Stubbs Bourn McCutcheonRasmus
LF Soriano Gomes Michaels Tabata Holliday
SP Zambrano Cueto Myers Maholm Carpenter
SP Dempster Arroyo Wandy Correia Wainwright
SP Wells Leake Happ McDonald Garcia
SP Gorzelanny Volquez Norris Karstens Westbrook
SP Samarzija Wood Figueroa Burres Hawksworth
CL Marmol Cordero Lyon Hanrahan Franklin
by Snake Diggity on Dec 13, 2010 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
It will be interesting to find out if the Cardinals pitching staff will be as good as anticipated, given the liklihood of worse defense in 2011. The Cardinals traded off Brendan Ryan; that means they will go with a middle infield of Theriot and Schumaker, which will be a poor fielding combo, particularly compared to Ryan at shortstop. This is important to a groundball oriented pitching staff. Also, Berkman in LF and Holliday in RF will diminish the defense at two outfield positions. Here is a link to vivaelbirdos’ enraged overflow thread (over 1,000 comments on the Ryan trade).
In the absence of more offensive reinforcements, my expectation is for the Astros’ record to regress next season, probably in the 70 – 74 win area. I think something close to .500 is reasonably possible, but that getting into contention is very unlikely. My reasoning: Chris Johnson, Jeff Keppinger, Brett Myers, and Happ are likely to regress from overperformance last season; the Astros lose Berkman’s and Oswalt’s contribution from last year; Barmes may be a marginal improvement at shortstop and Lee will see some improvement on offense, but neither is likely to offset the regression and Berkman/Oswalt loss; the Astros were outscored by over 100 runs last year; the Astros’ offense probably is the worst in the division; the Astros outscored their Pythagorean record by 11 runs last year, which is lot to explain away. The Astros may perform closer to .500 if Pence and Lee have big years. I’m normally not as pessimistic about the Astros chances as other people. But the Astros lack of OBP and power is likely to handicap the Astros’ chances this year, IMO.
I was kind of hoping the Astros would trade for Ryan. I think a Barmes-Ryan infield would be fun to watch and give the pitchers a nicer looking ERA which in turn would make them more valuable at the deadline. And if Ryan returns to something closer to his 2009 self, his offense would be enough with his glove.
Personally I’d give the Astros a 5% chance of making the playoffs. And the only way I see it happening is if Myers only regresses a little, Wandy shows up to pitch a complete season, Happ doesn’t regress, and Norris progresses. I think our chances were better with Paulino in the number 5 spot than with Hyphen or Figeroa back there (I think they are the most likely number 5s). But Aneury Rodriguez makes Paulino expendable, so I hope next year is his year. I think I may have a new favorite player to pull for. I hope MLB.TV has spring training games because I want to watch our potential number fives.
They have the last few years, but it all depends on when FS Houston or the other teams broadcast team decide to do games.
by Timothy De Block on Dec 14, 2010 7:21 AM CST up reply actions
possible upgrades?
So the only idea I have seen floated out there as an offensive upgrade is Bill Hall. I would be fine with that signing, but I can’t say he’d really get me excited. Does anyone have any trade ideas out there for upgrading second base since that seems to be the plan? I suppose they could still target another SS and mover Barmes to second. If you dealt Pence what would you hope to get back?
dont even say that! hunter pence is an astro. if he left the team id be devastated. we can talk about if we dealt carlos lee who would you want though hahaha. im fine with talking about that.
by Jake Sumeraj on Dec 13, 2010 10:46 PM CST up reply actions
I like Pence too but he might actually be able to fill multiple holes and a prospect might be able to fill in for him somewhat. We can all wish on Lee getting traded but there’s a better chance of him working out all off season and hitting 45 homeruns than getting traded…much less traded for something useful.
update
just signed hall… ss and 2b will be manned by better hitters than we were expecting. puts kepp and sanchez in dugout where they will contribute a lot. hall could get your 20+ hrs. lots of options in rotation, for 5 spot. some of the others go to the pen… bullpen looks good.. i think closer job is settled. lopez will be good in setup and others will help. Abad may be a starter. he looked good last yr. question is, in my opinion, is how do young players do in their 2d go round? magnus
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
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Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
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Pittsburgh
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22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
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Milwaukee
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19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
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Chicago
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15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
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