Astros Draft Review 2003-present
by Snake Diggity on Nov 5, 2010 3:54 PM CDT
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Decided I'd kill some time by reviewing the last 8 drafts and what they've yielded. I mainly looked at the top 6 rounds, as from my limited research, there seems to be a pretty large dropoff in likelihood of reaching the bigs after that round.
2003
Players drafted remaining in Astros system: Edwin Maysonet (SS-19th Rd)
Players drafted playing for another MLB team: Jason Hirsch (RP), Drew Stubbs (CF), Josh Anderson (CF)
Notable Busts: Josh Muecke (SP-5th Rd), Jon Davis (C-6th Rd)
Comments: This was a pretty weak draft for Houston, but it sure would be nice to have Drew Stubbs roaming Minute Maid. Sad that only one player (a AAAA utility IF) remains in the system. Overall this draft gets a grade of D-
2004
Players remaining: Hunter Pence (RF), Lou Santangelo (C), Evan Englebrook (RP), JR Towles (C)
Playing for someone else: Ben Zobrist (2B)
Busts: Mitch Einertson (OF-5th Rd)
Comments: Obviously Pence was a great pick and Towles yielded more than expected (and may end up catchign on in the bigs with another team), but overall another below average draft. Again, it'd be sweet to have Zobrist at 2B in Houston. It's doubtful that Santangelo or Englebrook ever break in, but they are still in the system. Also of not is that 3rd rd OF Jordan Parraz is still in KC's system and doing pretty well. I'd grade this draft as a C-.
2005
Remaining: Tommy Manzella (SS), Brian Bogusevic (OF), Brandon Barnes (OF), Koby Clemens (1B), Mark Ori (1B)
Other Teams: None
Busts: Eli Iorg (OF- 1st Rd), Ralph Henriquez (C-2nd Rd), Josh Flores (OF-4th Rd), Billy Hart (OF-5th Rd)
Comments: At this moment, it doesn't look like this draft will yield a single every day MLB player, although Manzella, Clemens, and Bogusevic all have a chance. 3rd Rd SP Josh Lindblom is progressing in SF's system. Ori will probably be released. It depends on what ends up becoming of Clemens, Manzo, and Bogey, but at this point I grade it a D+.
2006
Remaining: Chris Johnson, Bud Norris, Sergio Perez (SP), Jimmy Van Ostrand (1B)
Other Teams: None
Busts: Max Sapp (C-1st Rd), Nick Moresi (CF-3rd Rd), Casey Hudspeth (SP-5th Rd)
Comments: Johnson and Norris are 2 players the 'stros are hoping will be parts of their next winning team(s). Other than that, this draft was pretty barren. Van Ostrand will probably be released this year, and Perez is on his last leg, although he could emerge as a solid reliever given his upside. Whiffing on consecutive 1st rounders (Sapp and Iorg) hurts. This draft gets a C-.
2007
Remaining: Collin DeLome, Jon Fixler, Kyle Greenwalt, Al Cartwright, Brian Pelligrini, Brian Wabick, Colton Pitkin
Other Teams: None
Busts: Derek Dietrich (unsigned), Brett Eibner (unsigned), David Dinelli (SP-6th Rd)
Comments: DeLome has shown good power, but poor OB skills. He needs a stellar year in AAA next year to get back on track, but he may not be given every day play. Fixler's #'s surprised me once I started looking at them; he actually is a decent offensive player, and I wonder if he could end up as a decent big league backup catcher. Greenwalt and Cartwright both have good upside, as some (not me) see Greenwalt as a #4 starter and Cartwright as an everyday 2B. The other guys who are left have repeated years or not progressed and not much is expected of them at this point. Starting with this year, there is still a fair amount of projection left, so it's harder to grade. Moving forward, none of the players who are not with Houston will have made an impact for other teams. Factoring in the absence of a 1st or 2nd round pick automatically lowers this draft's grade. I see this draft producing 4 cup-of-coffee players (DeLome, Fixler, Greenwalt, Cartwright), but no everyday players (although Cartwright has Brandon Phillips upside), so I grade it an F.
2008
Top Picks: Castro, Lyles, Shuck, Austin, OF TJ Steele, SP Ross Seaton, SP David Duncan
Busts: Chase Davidson (unsigned--although we did receive a compensatory pick for him)
Sleepers: Danny Meszaros (RP), Luis Cruz (SP), Chris Hicks (SP), Shane Wolf (RP)
Comments: This is shaping up to be a very good draft. Castro is already the starting C in Houston. Lyles lit the world on fire last season and profiles as a front of the rotation starter. Shuck, Meszaros, and Austin are all on track for MLB appearances someday, and many other players still have a lot of upside left. Steele, OF Jon Gaston, Seaton, 3B David Flores, SP Luis Cruz, C Rene Garcia, and SP Chris Hicks could all put themselves on the map with good 2011 seasons. Grade is a B+ with A- upside and C+ downside.
2009
Top Picks: SS Jio Mier, SP Tanner Bushue, 3B Jon Meyer, OF Telvin Nash, RP BJ Hyatt, SS Brandon Wikoff, 2B Kike Hernandez
Busts: None (yet)
Sleepers: OF JD Martinez, SP Dallas Keuchel, RP David Berner, SP Robby Donovan, RP Mike MOdica, OF Jake Goebbert, 3B Erik Castro
Comments: I think this will end up being a very good draft as well. With so many HS players drafted in the early rounds, it will be 2-3 more years before we can really begin to judge this draft. However, Martinez and Keuchel could both make their debuts as early as next year, and both project as starters in the bigs. ALthough they haven't put up monster stats, Mier, Meyer, and Bushue were all young for their league. Nash had a breakout year in 2010, and Hernandez has produced as well. I think in the end, this draft will produce at least 4 solid big leaguers, so it gets a B-, with A- upside and C- downside.
2010
Top Picks: 2B Delino DeShields, 3B Mike Kvasnicka, SP Mike Foltynewicz, SP Vincent Velasquez, CF Austin Wates, SP Robert Doran, C Ben Heath
Busts: Adam Plutko (unsigned)
Sleepers: OF Bryce Lane, C Roberto Pena, SP Jake Buchanan, SP Tom Shirley, C Chris Wallace, 3B Tyler Burnett, SP Evan Grills, OF Jordan Scott, OF Dan Adamson
Comments: Another good draft, which makes 3 straight. A good mix of HS and college players. Heath is on the fast track and I am really high on him. DeShields and Folty have as much upside as anyone. On the negative side, Kvasnicka didn't exactly light it up and Velasquez has already suffered a major injury. Solid throughout (as evidenced by the large number of sleeper prospects, which could easily be added to). Still 3+ years away from having a real grip on how good it is, but I see this draft being very fruitful, a solid A, with C- downside and A+ upside.
So other than just a time waster, the questions this begs from the board:
Who are your sleepers?
What grades would you assign?
How long can this string of above average drafts last?
And of course, any other thoughts, questions, or comments?
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Good Work
The obvious turn around exists when Wade and Heck were brought in, which leads to as long as they both are with the Astros, these type of drafts will continue, and IMO, actually improve. The system is getting influxed with solid prospects that are slowly trickling upward in the system. Because we will have several players in almost every level deserving of full time duties, I expect higher risk/reward picks being taken.
The 03 draft wouldn’t look that bad had, like you said, Stubbs still be with this organization. Even Hirsh and Anderson would make it better. The 04 draft would actually be pretty nice if Zobrist was with us obviously, and Towles would have been given a proper chance.
I love the last 3 drafts and I’m getting excited about the next draft, even though we don’t have any extra picks. I can see a few high risky picks next year, more likely a second or third round pick will be the exciting risky ones. That way, its not a big hit to the system if they don’t sign, but if they do…he’ll be an instant exciting prospect to follow.
I have a few sleepers of my own. In the 08 draft, Dydalewicz had an absolute terrible season, but he’s still very talented. All of his problems stem from his inability to repeat his delivery, and if he can straiten that out, he’ll be solid again. Nathan Pettus was supposed to anchor the Lexington pen this year before he had an injury. If he can recover, I think he could be a solid reliever. With the 09 draft, I like Mark Jones. He is very tall and had some good outings at a very low level this year in the GCL. Guys as tall and lanky as he is take a long time to develop cooridination and fill out. He could start turning it around this year. There also Bubby Williams (yeah I said it Timmy!), he showed some great power potential early on before falling off a cliff. I think it could have something to do with his body not being able to handle the wear and tear of the catcher position yet, so he could do something. With the 10 draft, I have several! I really like Kyle Redinger, it will probably take a while for him to develop his power potential, but it could be there. Rodney Quintero throws very hard (although he is an injury risk with a very high effort delivery) and could be a high upside starter if his secondary pitches develop. Krishawn Holley isn’t very projectable, but its rare for draft and scout type picks to get signed, but he was, so Heck had to have seen something this summer for him to sign him.
…just a correction, Drew Stubbs was never with the Astros’ organization. He was drafted but not signed. He then attended UT and was drafted by the Reds out of college.
I just have one caveat
It’s still early for the 2008 – present drafts.
Of course there are more names because of the fact that it’s still early and several prospects still have hope. but nice run down on past drafts in the last several years, I certainly think the selections have been more productive recently.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 6, 2010 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah it still early on the recent drafts but it’s pretty telling that the 08 draft has provided more than the 03 draft and after next year, probably close to the 04 draft.
Yeah, theres going to be more names now because its still early, but at the same time it could be a product of the increased talent per draft.
by Subber10 on Nov 7, 2010 5:11 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Patton, Linblum, other thoughts
Don’t forget that Troy Patton was a key part of the 04 draft and was used for Miggy in trade. He is in the mix to be a starter in Baltimore next year.
J. Lindblum never signed.
Wasn’t Ross Seaton drafted as a comp pick for Davidson not signing? I am not sure I call that a bust.
Right, that’s why I put the caveat of the compensation pick next to Davidson. But I would consider an uncompensated non-sign a bust, since it would be the same as if the player signed and faded out.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 7, 2010 8:22 PM CST up reply actions
03 and 04 Draft
Baseball cube gives a really good listing of our draft picks and where they played and their stats and everything. I was relooking at the 2003 draft and wow. The best player we got was Edwin Maysonet. We only had 9 players even reach AA in that draft. The 04 draft was heads and tails better with Pence, Zobrist, Patton, Reineke, and Towles. Overall (from what I saw) 14 players made it to at least AA. I’d go F- for 2003 and B- for 2004.
Also, Ross Seaton was the compensatory pick for failure to sign Dietrich in the 2007 draft. Chase Davidson was taken in the same draft as Seaton. Jonathon Meyers was the compensatory pick for failure to sign Davidson.
by GhostOfGlennDavis on Nov 8, 2010 11:39 AM CST reply actions
I was grading based on what production Houston actually received from the players. Because of that criteria, I’m sticking with a c- for ‘04. It yielded a starting RF (Pence), a cup of coffee C (Towles), and a cup of coffee reliever (Reineke). If you’re lumping in what we got in trade for Zobrist and Patton, I would argue that a % of Tejada and % of Huff doesn’t add much to the overall grade.
Of all the “busts”, Sapp and Iorg are really the only two that hurt enough to singlehandedly set back the franchise.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 8, 2010 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
Reineke was part of the Randy Wolf trade and never reached the majors with the Astros. everyone grades drafts differently from what they want to see. I think hindsight is always 20/20 for what we get in a trade and how they perform compare to how what we traded performs. My equation for figuring draft grades, and take it for what you will is:
after 3 full professional years:
highest player reaches-
AA – 2 pts
AAA – 4 pts
MLB backup- 7 pts
reg MLB player – 13pts
all-star caliber – 20 pts
tradebait for reg mlb player – 10 pts
lost points for:
failure to sign rd 6-10 = (-3 pts)
failure to sign rd 1-5 = (-5 pts)
my grade for 2003 from what i perused came to somewhere between 20-30, and my grade for 2004 was right at about 80 or 81. I prob put too much stock in the tradebait part, but that’s what i currently use.
by GhostOfGlennDavis on Nov 8, 2010 1:48 PM CST reply actions
Trade bait
Do you consider how the players turned out? For Example Zobrist has helped the Rays much more than Huff helped the Astros (I realize there was another player involved in the trade too)
That is why I still think Patton had value because Miggy was helpful to the Astros and Patton hasn’t panned out YET for the O’s
no, bc they no longer have value to the astros organization after being traded. It’s more of an organizational score than an overall grade. I also think it can be put on a curve if you went forth and graded out all the players drafted by every team.
I think the only flaw i see within the trade bait used is if there was a large number of prospects traded for an individual player. I think that could heavily warp the outcome.
by GhostOfGlennDavis on Nov 15, 2010 8:06 AM CST reply actions
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