Finding A Shortstop: Astros Offseason Talk
by David Coleman on Nov 22, 2010 6:00 AM CST
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PrintSometime Thursday morning, I was happily surfing through a batch of morning links from my trusty RSS feed when I saw this story from AstroB's website about Houston's glaring need. I, of course, agreed with him, as many of you likely did. Shortstop was the biggest hole the Astros had last season, both offensively and defensively. There is a chance Tommy Manzella rebounds to post good numbers again, but the odds are against him.
But, I got to thinking about how hard it might be to upgrade at shortstop. For instance, how many teams feel good about their incumbents at short? How many could use an upgrade and how many are basically running out a replacement-level player? So, I hopped onto Baseball Reference and FanGraphs and did some research. Took me an hour or two to sort through all the teams, look at WARs and fill out the little chart you'll see below. Not a big deal but I was happy with the results I got and was planning an article about the Astros chances of really improving the position.
Then, Ed Wade struck like a mongoose. As I'm beginning to eat lunch, I see the tail end of a couple tweets by Alyson Footer and Brian McTaggart talking about the recent trade and the rest is history. My next three days were filled with anguish and way too much reflection on what Clint Barmes means to the 2011 Astros.
But, I still think the discussion of shortstops is a valid one. We just have to refocus the lens a little. Instead of trying to show how hard it will be to upgrade, let's see where Barmes might put Houston next season
First of all, I divided the league into three categories. The first are teams that had a shortstop with a WAR over 2.0 last season and who retained said shortstop for 2011. The second are teams with incumbent shortstops who had less than a 2.0 WAR but more than 1.0. The last group, the replacement level teams, had shortstops on the roster with less than 1.0 WAR. I included San Francisco in this group, since they lost both Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria off last year's roster. Mike Fontenot is the only Giant still on the roster to play shortstop in 2010.
Things will change and I wasn't rigid in my standards. For instance, I put Derek Jeter with the Yankees, despite the fact that he's a free agent. There are also a couple guys on the replacement list who are young and definitely the team's starting shortstop for the future (Milwaukee's Escobar and Chicago's Castro). So, the list is a little misleading, but not terribly so.
Notice how few teams get any value out of their shortstops. We're talking defense-first guys too. Almost two-thirds of the league could stand to upgrade that position. But, as I've said before, we know this. It's hard to even find replacement level players at short, much less a contributor. Before I get too deep into the analysis, here's the full list of teams
Comfortable
Arizona - Stephen Drew
Atlanta - Alex Gonzalez
Boston - Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie
Chicago White Sox - Alexei Ramirez
Colorado - Troy Tulowitski
Florida - Hanley Ramirez
Los Angeles Dodgers - Rafael Furcal
Oakland - Cliff Pennington
Could Improve (Less than 2.0 WAR)
Detroit - Jhonny Peralta
Kansas City - Yuniesky Betancourt
Minnesota - JJ Hardy
New York Yankees - Derek Jeter
Philadelphia - Jimmy Rollins
Seattle - Jack Wilson, Josh Wilson
Tampa Bay - Jason Bartlett, Reid Brignac
Toronto - Yunel Escobar
Texas - Elvis Andrus
Replacement-Level (Less than 1.0 WAR)
Baltimore - Robert Andino
Cincinnati - Paul Janish
Cleveland - Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Donald
Los Angeles Angels - Erick Aybar
Milwaukee - Alcides Escobar
Pittsburgh - Ronny Cedeno
St. Louis - Brendan Ryan
San Diego - Everth Cabrera
San Francisco - Mike Fontenot
Washington - Ian Desmond
Free Agents (Age, WAR total)
Orlando Cabrera (35, 0.4)
Miguel Tejada (37, 1.8)
Juan Uribe (31, 2.0)
Edgar Renteria (35, 1.0)
Cesar Izturis (31, -0.4)
None of the free agents are very attractive. The only teams with depth are Tampa Bay, Boston and Seattle. I bet the Mariners don't trade either of those guys, though. That leaves precious few teams willing to give up on shortstops or shortstop prospects via trade. With limited free agent options, it's just a tough position to fill.
Were there better options than Barmes out there? Sure, but they all would have been more expensive. Either they would have cost more to sign as a free agent or they would have cost more in prospects. The only guy that may have been available for Paulino was Bartlett, and I'm not sure if the Rays would do that deal.
Another point to bring up is that only two teams had negative WAR out of their main shortstop last season: Baltimore and Houston. I'm thinking Barmes' combination of defense and power should up him to 1.0 or 1.5 WAR in 2011. That'd bring Houston up from worst in the league to middle of the Needs Work category. For a trade that was almost universally panned around here, I think that's a bigger improvement than we're letting on. Barmes himself may not be exciting, and Paulino may have had a lot more upside than we got in that trade, but Wade may have just given us a passable shortstop for next season. I don't think we can knock that.
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I worry about the reason for the trade,
not the trade itself. To me it signifies that maybe Houston can’t fully commit to a rebuilding period. And it just bugs me that he was lock to be non-tendered, and he doesn’t provide significant more value at the shortstop position.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 22, 2010 9:23 AM CST reply actions
Regarding the non-tender thing...
What the above article shows is that there is clearly a demand for slightly above replacement shortstops. I’d say Barmes fits in that category and, had he gone on the FA market, maybe the Astros have to overpay (like we did with Lyon last year) in order to get a contract signed. Would you still be happy with Barmes if we paid him $12 million over 3 years on the FA market because six other teams were bidding on him too?
The other nice thing about trading for Barmes now is that it gives the Astros some leverage. They can try and work out a team friendly extension all the while knowing that if all else fails, we can still take Barmes to arbitration and have him signed affordably for one year.
Finally, let’s say we sign Barmes at one year and he pulls up his offensive totals a bit this year. If the team is out of contention, we might have a relatively good trade chip on our hands for a post-season contender.
So, yes, it doesn’t appear very logical why you’d trade for a guy who was about to be released anyway, but there are actually some pretty good reasons too.
I’d be happy with playing Manzella/Sanchez to see what the Astros have, they both come a helluva a lot cheaper.
You really want the Astros to give a multi-year deal to a 32 year old slightly above replacement level shortstop/second baseman.
And your trade deadline is predicated on if’s a big IF. No one is going to give up anything of value for Barmes especially not someone with the potential of Paulino.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 22, 2010 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
Great article!
When I first heard the news of the Barmes deal, I was actually quite excited. SS was big question mark for us last year, so I commend Ed Wade for trading Paulino (who never really proved himself consistent or healthy enough) to get a guy who’ll instantly improve our lineup.
If the Astros can sign Barmes to a 2 year deal paying $3.5-4 million per season, and he can provide a bit more pop and defense than Manzella/Sanchez, I’m all for it.
I still don’t think that Barmes profiles as better than Manzella. The WAR calculations are not park adjusted. (Yes, that is a major flaw in WAR.) Barmes projects as sub-.600 OPS, based on his career 75 OPS+. And the odds are that Barmes is on the decline, given his age. I think it’s fair to say that Manzella has fairly decent potential to put up a low to mid .600’s OPS, given his minor league record; and, sure, he could be a total bust, who knows. I’m glad that Barmes has good defensive ability, but I think he falls short of what the Astros need, unless the Astros can acquire a platoon partner at shortstop.
hence why i thought Goff's statement
that we had acquired a power bat in Barmes was ridiculous.
Looking closely at Barmes numbers, nothing really impresses. There are patches where he has done ok, but even his 23 HR in 2009 came at a cost of a 22.0 K%.
Its an upgrade, basically because Barmes is a comparative veteran if you look at Manzella.
not the trade itself. To me it signifies that maybe Houston can’t fully commit to a rebuilding period. And it just bugs me that he was lock to be non-tendered, and he doesn’t provide significant more value at the shortstop position.
This is what troubles me, but I see this as Wade buttering up the team for a potential buyer.
Saying all of this, if our season comes down to whether Barmes succeeds or not, you know we’re in trouble.
How confident are you guys that whoever would’ve played SS next season in Barmes’ place (I assume Manzella or Sanchez) would be a piece of the next Astros’ playoff team?
Unless you feel like one of them would have been good enough to become the SS of the next 3-4 yrs, trading for Barmes did not hinder the rebuilding process.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 22, 2010 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
Except that we lost Felipe Paulino
Who I did think had a legitimate chance at being a part of the next Astros playoff team. (Not saying he would have, just that there was a real possibility.)
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Paulino was signed in 2001(!) and has had a lot of time to establish himself, but the injuries are still a question and, best case scenario, he maybe gets a spot on the roster for 2011.
Clearly the ship has sailed here. I think the Astros have been more than patient with him, and he’s shown flashes of being a good pitcher at times, but even when he is healthy consistency is still a big issue.
On top of that (and this is something that nobody seems to be mentioning) Paulino is arbitration eligible for the first time this year and is totally out of options.
It often takes IFAs a long time to work their way up
He’s had mixed results at the big league level but shown some flashes of great promise. I don’t agree that the ship had sailed, or whatever, and it’s not really about being patient with him or doing him a favor of anything like that, it’s simply about what’s best for the ball club.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him develop into a mainstay of the Colorado rotation in the next couple years. I’d give it about a 30/70 chance.
Where are you seeing that he is arbitration eligible, by the way? Isn’t that based on service time? He only has 1.1 years per Cot’s Contracts.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Paulino is not out of options. That is a misconception floating around out there. Paulino had an option year left in 2010, and he was not optioned to the minors, and therefore the option year was not used.
This confuses me too...
As I feel like I read the same thing earlier this season. Seems like there’s some conflicting reports around?
Anyway, you’d have to think that Ed Wade would’ve done his homework first before trading Paulino away. Seems like if he still had an option left, they would’ve offered someone else. (Obviously the Astros really liked Paulino and kept waiting for that breakout season to occur.)
As someone who was under the impression that Paulino was out of options, and who wrongly stated so on this website, I feel a bit obligated to explain things in detail. Confusion starts to creep in since the rules are a bit weird.
First, re-hab assignments don’t count against one’s options. Paulino had a number of those, so it may have seemed like he’s been up and down enough to exhaust his options.
Second, a player can be optioned multiple times in a season and it only counts against his options once. Paulino was optioned at least once in 2009 (once before the season, in March, once in July). But this only counts as a single option. The only other time he was optioned was after his first stint in the majors, in 2007. So he entered 2010 with an option left, and as you point out, clack, the option was not used. As confirmation, here’s the Bernardo Fallas article which shows that Paulino had an option remaining heading into 2010. Finally, none of Footer, McTaggart, Levine, or Justice mentioned that Paulino was out of options. If something was weird and the by me or Fallas were off, you’d expect one of those fine writers to mention that Paulino was out of options.
So we should consider the Paulino-is-out-of-options myth debunked.
For discussion: A history of Felipe Paulino injuries
2004 - apparently missed time with arm injuries
2007 - misses first month of the season with an “arm problem”
Mar. 2008 – Paulino has an infection cut out of his foot during spring training
Later Mar. 2008 – Paulino sent home from spring training with arm pain, says he’s had it for a while…Ed Wade says that he wishes Paulino had brought it to someone’s attention earlier. It’s a pinched nerve and Paulino is out until May.
June 2008 – Has a “setback” in re-habbing his arm
August 6, 2008 – In less than an inning on a re-hab assignment with the Round Rock Express, Paulino experiences shoulder tightness, which doctors dubbed “right should tendinitis” and later called “bursitis”. Paulino is completely out for the season.
June 7, 2009 – apparently strains right groin throwing a pitch to Ian Snell. It’s considered minor, but spends two weeks rehabbing it
March 31, 2010 - Held out of spring training game due to back spasms
June 24, 2010 – Right shoulder tendinitis
July 16, 2010 – while on a rehab assignment in Round Rock from his tendinitis, has a setback…MRI calls it a “mild right rotator cuff strain”
August 4, 2010 – Paulino is unable to throw a bullpen session, Dr. James Andrews gives second opinion…says rotator cuff has improved, but there is still inflamation. Re-activated from the disabled list on Sept. 12.
I'm very worried
That Barmes will be the next Pedro Feliz, except even worse since we gave up more than just money for him.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I still like my idea
of trading for a player like Hu or Iorg if they were cheap. You’d end up with a glovey SS with offensive potential and if they worked out you’d control them for 5 or 6 years. That’s kind of what Barmes seems like only without the years of control and with higher cost.
I’ve always liked the Hu trade idea. But the Dodgers don’t appear to be giving up on him, despite the prospect depth at shortstop. However, to be clear, Hu is a great defender, but at best only a modest hitter. Because of offensive questions at other positions, the Astros (and fans) feel like they have to demand power hitting from the shortstop, which is tough to find. I think it’s symptomatic of other problems in the lineup.
It seems like we can never catch a break
At short besides Tejada we havn’t really had a descent hitting SS for years. At catcher we have usually great defense but with no bat. At CF with the excepting of Beltran same thing. Don’t get me wrong im a huge fan of Mikey but he’s had one good offensive season. And im not counting Biggio as a CF because he was a plug in due to an overflow of second base talent.
Seeing that Bar is a dead pull hitter with some pop (seems like everybody has pop in that high altitude) Wade saw this as possibly his best option overall. Here’s hoping that short porch in left can produce some nice numbers for him as planned. Still liked Paulino better even if he was a long shot.
Just a thought though are we sure we got him for SS? Will we use Kepp as trade bait since we don’t look so needy now?
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 25, 2010 3:52 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I had thought about the Keppinger possibility as well.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 25, 2010 9:01 AM CST up reply actions
It seems like we can never catch a break
At short besides Tejada we havn’t really had a descent hitting SS for years. At catcher we have usually great defense but with no bat. At CF with the excepting of Beltran same thing. Don’t get me wrong im a huge fan of Mikey but he’s had one good offensive season. And im not counting Biggio as a CF because he was a plug in due to an overflow of second base talent.
Seeing that Bar is a dead pull hitter with some pop (seems like everybody has pop in that high altitude) Wade saw this as possibly his best option overall. Here’s hoping that short porch in left can produce some nice numbers for him as planned. Still liked Paulino better even if he was a long shot.
Just a thought though are we sure we got him for SS? Will we use Kepp as trade bait since we don’t look so needy now?
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 25, 2010 3:52 AM CST via mobile reply actions
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