Unexpected Consequences For A Possible Astros Sale
by David Coleman on Nov 20, 2010 6:00 AM CST
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PrintWhy this "Drayton is looking to sell the Astros" story finally hit the big time with his press conference yesterday, at the start of a long offseason that will be mostly devoid of moves, is beyond me. All I know is it was the worst possible time, because I have way too much time to dwell on it. For instance:
Let's say this sale takes a year to finish. By December 2011, Tillman Fertitta or Warren Buffet or someone will own the Astros. The new owners will have two of its star players in their third year of arbitration and another approaching free agency. Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn will be entering their Age 29 seasons while Wandy will be 33. Do you know what that means, boys and girls? No long-term contracts for any of those three. Ditto J.A. Happ and Matt Lindstrom. If anything, I bet Chris Johnson could sign a three- or four-year deal and be safe, but don't expect this ownership group to sign any of these guys long-term.
What does that mean? They'll probably be moved. Maybe not right away, but at some point in the next two years. The Astros don't like to sign guys long-term while they still have arbitration years left anyway, but I can't see any long deals being struck until the team changes hands. At that point, the new ownership may be reluctant to lock up older players to long deals and instead, focus on younger players like Johnson, Castro and Brett Wallace.
It also probably signals the end of Tal Smith's run in the Houston front office. I don't believe the new ownership will want him out (whoever they are), but Smith is getting up there and may feel like retiring and running his arbitration business full time. Just a hunch there, so we'll see what happens.
Conversely, I don't think the Astros will avoid signing free agents. As we saw with the Rangers last year, they did bring in Vladimir Guerrero, but only on a one-year deal. I can see the Astros taking a similar approach, which might have priced them out of Juan Uribe Land before the bidding started.
Lastly, Carlos is probably gone and probably for peanuts. Seriously, if Drayton can get a bag of peanuts for him, he's headed to the American League. And Drayton will eat some delicious, delicious peanuts. Every sale is different, and there probably won't be a huge amount of pressure to move him no matter what, but that press conference Friday was a sign to the rest of the league that the Astros are open for business, but of a very particular kind.
I'm already excited about 2011...
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It’s all worth it to be rid of Carlos…thats how bad I want to get rid of him…
Although, I’d like to see Pence get a long term deal. I’d like to see Bourn locked up for a few extra seasons, but I’m not sure just how long term I’d like to sign him for though. Even in new ownership, I could see Pence getting a deal because he is the face of the franchise now and a fan favorite. Sure, ownership is going to want to build the team the way they want, but you don’t want to tick the fan base off too much.
On the plus side
New ownership often brings with it a desire to make a big splash, so if a sale has indeed gone down by next offseason, that could be an exciting one.
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I don’t any of the things you mention necessarily follow from a sale. The prospect of a sale probably precludes signing a huge contract, like Cliff Lee, but we all knew that wouldn’t happen. Some of those things (1 year contracts, no multi-year contract extensions) may happen, but it’s because they were likely to happen with or without the prospect of a sale. If the Astros think it’s a good baseball decision to sign a 2 or 3 year contract with a free agent, or to buy out arbitration years, I don’t think the possibility of a sale will stop them. Those are not significant in terms of the franchise’s long term value, and I think most prospective owners will want to take over a franchise which has continued to operate in a long term prudent manner. Stripping down the franchise would probably discourage high bids, since it would look like a distress sale. The Rangers aren’t the best example because they had so many creditor problems surrounding their sale. The Cubs went on a contract signing spree just before and during the time that the team was put on the block. Zambrano was extended, Milton Bradley was signed, Fukudome was signed, pitching free agents were signed, etc. I’m not saying the Astros will do the same, but it shows that contracts can be signed. I think the Astros would like to trade Lee with or without a sale, but that will depend on how much money Drayton will pull out of his own pocket to make it happen. I doubt it happens. And, at most, the new owners will only have one year of his contract to pay. I doubt that will make a difference on the sale.
Other than Bourn
and Chris Johnson….is there anyone really worth keeping? Another point to be made is that this could take longer than a year. Even if a new owner is in place quickly, think he’ll wanna pick who is general manager is? That means we’re looking at a heck of a lot longer than a year or two.
by twinkilling0303 on Nov 20, 2010 8:49 AM CST reply actions
Can the Astros avoid declining attendance and ratings next year?
If McLane is serious about getting $700 – $800 million for the Astros, I would think that it would be helpful if the team didn’t continue to show declining attendance and revenues. The competitiveness of the team probably will have a lot to do with that question. Unless Wade has some bigger moves up his sleeves for the 2011 season, I have to question whether the team will be able to reach .500.
thats why id look to package two or three vets into getting guys like gordon beckham or colby rasmus, maybe even justin uptin
would you not trade wandy bourn kepp and a mid prospect for rasmus
and pence myers kepp for beckham
i definitely would, that gives us a 23 year old outfielder, and middle infielder going forward, and while we lose in the total talent of the trade, we are getting back the two highest potential guys
plus rasmus and beckham fit more into the building period of this team, given that when they’re pence and bourn’s age we’ll hopefully have wallace and castro also hitting their strides in the prime of their careers, AND they’ll hopefully have young talent on the way to help with guys from recent drafts being ready
but in the short term i would definitely make those trades and sign guys like zach duke, scott olsen, jeff francis or rich harden to fill out the rotation
Would you trade Lyles to the Cardinals for Westbrook, Molina, and Schumaker?
No? So then what makes you think teams would trade their top young talent for a quantity?
If the Astros were a contending team, then perhaps
Although I also think Wandy, Bourn, and Keppinger are better players than Westbrook, Molina, and especially Schumaker.
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because they can compete for a championship next year.
because rasmus has had problems with his manager and veteran players.
and we aren’t exactly giving them nothing, they are getting back a gold glove center fielder who has led the league in stolen bases the last two years, and a lefty who has proven he can be dominant, plus a upgrade at 2nd base that they need and a prospect
seems like a fair haul, i guarantee they wouldn’t get a much better offer than that if they put him on the market
We couldn’t even get a player of Rasmus caliber for Oswalt, a top 5 pitcher of the last decade. What makes you think a quantity of lesser players would do it?
very true
We couldn’t even get a player of Rasmus caliber for Oswalt, a top 5 pitcher of the last decade. What makes you think a quantity of lesser players would do it?
It seems like a buyers market, but we’ll see what it takes to get guys like Grienke, Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Upton if they are moved. And the Royals, Padres and Diamondbacks will be asking for the moon.
Because Oswalt came with a very expensive contract in tow
Not to mention a no-trade clause and some demands regarding waiving it, both in terms of financial considerations and in terms of what teams he was willing to play for.
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Yes, that’s very true. Oswalt would have brought a lot more in trade if he had a $5 million contract and didn’t have no trade clause. Also, it is easier to trade a good player, like Oswalt, for significant major league players if the trade occurs in the off-season rather in-season. If a team is in a pennant chase, it’s hard for them to give up players who have important roles on their team, unless they have a good replacement available. In the off-season, free agents are available as replacement players. Having said that, this discussion is pretty useless, because I don’t think Rasmus will be traded. No matter what Tony thinks, Mozeliak, the GM, wants to keep Rasmus. As for an Upton trade, consider anonymous quote from a D-Backs’ scout, when asked what the D-Backs would ask for: “Everything you’ve got.”
Back to topic
Honestly I think with some key free agent pick ups and some key moves on defense we could, and bare with me now, could make a run for the wildcard. I like the idea that Dray would want to make his team a contender to try and sell it. Who would make us a winner you ask? I’ve said it a thousand times, Carl Crawford. I mean come on his name is the left field bleachers! His defense in left alone would save a couple runs per game and another power/speed/average bat in the line up won’t kill us. And now with the regrettable loss of Paulino another starter, the return of Carlos’s bat and repeats by Hunter and CJ and this team COULD easily make the playoffs.
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 20, 2010 11:38 PM CST via mobile reply actions
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