Who Should We Add in 2011 to Help Our Offense?
by BustaPozee on Oct 3, 2010 11:47 PM CDT
Email
PrintWith the 2010 season already done for the Astros, we've seen very exciting things go on this year. We've traded away fan favorites Oswalt & Berkman for Melancon, Wallace & other prospects. We've acquired Angel Sanchez from the Red Sox in exchange for Kevin Cash. And, we've seen a lot of success in our pitching after the All Star break. A lot of people might say that we have a good chance of making it to the playoffs next year. Maybe so, but the truth is, I don't think it's very likely that we're going to make it to the playoffs unless we make some pretty bold offensive changes in the off season. And here's why:
Our offense is terrible. We have shown in the 2nd half that we can get runners on base, but we have a problem getting those runners across the plate. And it's all a matter of hitting balls deep enough so that the runners can move forward. Hitting singles will not move runners far. But doubles & homeruns will do that job. And if we have more people hitting doubles & home runs, we will have a better offense.
In 2011, we will have places where we need to put people. A big position is Left Field. With Carlos Lee most likely starting at 1st Base next year, we are going to have to have someone in left field who can hit for power & a high average to fill a void in our offense. While we have J-Mike, Jason Bourgeois, Brian Bogusevic and Drew Locke as options in Left Field, it would be better to put a proven major league outfielder who can also meet our offensive needs rather than load our offense with more inconsistent rookies. Manzella, Castro, Wallace, Downs, Bogusevic, Hernandez have shown some success, but they should not be in the Majors as far as hitting goes. But because we had gaps to fill, we had to fill them & these were the people who were chosen to fill those spots. While these people have contributed offensively in some games, in others they just get struck out, ground into double plays, fly out, or ground out or otherwise hurt our offense. With a team looking for a spot in the playoffs next year, we should not add another inconsistent bat to our team, but rather an experienced one while the rookies continue to develop in the Majors & at Oklahoma City. So, with this in mind, I hope the Astros fork over some money to sign a pretty dang good outfielder for at least a year. (I'll go over some options later, just keep reading).
Another player we will need is a utility infielder. With Geoff Blum parting ways, we need someone who can defend & hit at least 250 with some power. We have 2 shortstops Manzella & Sanchez, but we need someone who can play all 4 infield positions so we will need to sign someone.
The main focus for this offseason should be signing a high caliber leftfielder. So lets look at some options for Left Field:
Adam Dunn. Yes I said it, I said Adam Dunn. You want me to say it again? Okay. Adam Dunn. A Houston born native, He can play Left Field and while I don't know if he will be able to get to the ball any faster than Carlos could, he would be a big boost to our offense. It would be an expensive bold move, but if we can sign him to a 1 year deal, it should not be hesitated to sign him.
Carl Crawford. Houston Native as well as Dunn, but can steal bases, and hit for power with a lot of doubles & triples. Will be valuable for our offense. He will be pricey, but we should not pass him up if we can't sign Dunn.
Coco Crisp. A stellar defensive veteran outfielder. Can run & steal bases. Can hit for some power. Somewhat injury prone. If he doesn't end up at Oakland in 2011, and we don't get Dunn or Crawford, this is a guy we should try to go after.
Utility Infielders (that I can think of):
Ty Wigginton. Somewhat similar to what Geoff Blum has done for us, but he can hit for power as well & play 1st, 2nd & 3rd base. Did extremely well when he was with the Astros, but stupid of us that we didn't sign him again.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Anyway, with my extremely short list of people we could sign, I think it is important that we at least sign 1 person for at least a year who can hit lots of homeruns & can be an RBI machine. Lee & Pence are really the only 2 people who can do that, with Johnson being a possible 3rd. But, with all of our contact hitters, we will need someone who can send them home, rather than strand them on base. While our pitching is the best, if we give up 2 runs and have nobody on our side getting runs, that's not exactly what you want. Pitching wins games, but not if the Offense can't do anything. So, with my blabbering all done, I think we have a real good chance of making a playoff run next year, but not if we don't sign someone who can strengthen our offense.
Ps. This is my first post on the Crawfish Boxes. Please provide some feedback. Thanks!
99 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Welcome.
I don’t think the astros are in position to sign any of the top offensive free agents (Dunn, Werth, and Crawford included).
In 2010, the Astros are below average offensively at the following positions: C, 1B/LF, and SS. Keppinger was close enough to average at 2B to be adequeate. Johnson was above average. Pence is above average. Bourn is average, depending on how much emphasis you put on defense and baserunning. Lee was below average but must be counted on in 2011 considering his contract and previous performance.
So who’s out there at the need positions?
Catcher- Castro is the incumbent and will be given the job. Still, if you look at all the NL playoff teams, they all have an above average offensive catcher, something Castro probably won’t be until 2012, if ever. There are several quality free agents available, including Victor Martinez, John Buck, Miguel Olivo, and Yorvit Torrealba. Other interesting players on the market are Juan Castro, Jason Varitek, Gregg Zaun and Hernandez. If the Astros were to bring in a starting catcher (which I think is HIGHLY unlikely), Buck or Torrealba would be top choice. Both have decent power, are not on the decline, and would be relatively affordable (<$5M).
1B/LF- I don’t see how you don’t give Wallace another shot, but there are several 1B out there who could help. Dunn, Berkman, and LaRoche would be the 3 I would look at. My best case scenario would be to bring Lance back on a 1yr/$6M deal and have him play both 1B and LF, allowing Wallace and Bogey to get plenty of ABs. Other free agents who could help are Huff, Konerko, Branyan, Derrek Lee, and Mike Sweeney (all 1B). I just don’t see Houston signing a FA OFer. Too many young guys clamorign for a chance and not enough $ to bring in a difference maker.
SS- I like Sanchez as a bench player, but not as an everyday SS. I don’t think Manzella is the answer either. This is the position where I think Houston will spend the bulk of it’s FA dollars. The problem is that there just aren’t very many starting SS available this year. The 2 players I like are Jose Reyes and Juan Uribe. Reyes is unlikely to reach free agency, leaving Uribe as my #1 target. He’s just a good all around player and shouldn’t break the bank. Should be a great stopgap 2-3 yr guy who can play multiple positions.
The pitching staff is pretty much set. They could use another starter and another fringe closer, but should only chase value. I was messing around last week and came up with this 25 man roster (which I believe would fit under payroll and not keep the team from continuing the rebuilding process):
C: Castro
1B: Wallace
2B: Keppinger
SS: Uribe
3B: Johnson
RF: Pence
CF: Bourn
LF: Lee
Bench: Michaels, Sanchez, Buck, Berkman, Bogusevic
Rotation: Myers, Wandy, Happ, Norris, Justin Duchscherer
Bullpen: Figueroa, Byrdak, Abad, Melancon, Kerry Wood, Lopez, Lyon
That would mean demoting Manzella, Quintero, Bourgeois, Downs, Paulino, Wright, Chacin, Fulchino, etc. I just don’t think Manzo is a big leaguer, and Q cannot hit. All of those players would be in Houston when an injury/etc occurs. I would trade Lindstrom.
Interesting
I like your viewpoint. We surely need a catcher who can hit for power & let Castro develop more. I’d like Castro at Oklahoma just so he can play every day & develop his bat if we get Buck, leaving Q as the backup & Buck as the starter. We wouldn’t be in a desperate situation like we were when we called him up, so lets let Castro develop. I’ve taken a look a Uribe for a couple times, he seems like a good candidate for our needs. I think by adding these 2 people, Buck & Uribe for cheap is a really good idea. Of course, left field may be a problem and as of now, It would make more sense signing Berkman back, rather than a big egg like Dunn.
I think with my thinking, I was chosing 1 big egg to do all of our offense when several people we can add in the offseason would do better for less $$ at key positions. Thank you for your input. Having a catcher who can hit is probably much better than having a left fielder hit.
I see Figueroa as a starter. Mainly because of his last 3 starts when he didn’t pitch only 5 innings, I don’t expect the Astros to go after a veteran starting pitcher.
With this, I have made an opening day roster of my own (with the help of the logically thinking Snake Diggity).
C: Buck
1B: Lee
2B: Keppinger (Sanchez could also be better at 2nd than at SS defensively)
3B: Johnson
SS: Uribe
LF: Berkman
CF: Bourn
RF: Pence
Bench: Michaels, Sanchez, Quintero, Bogusevic, O
Rotation: Myers, Wandy, Happ, Norris, Figueroa
Bullpen: Byrdak, Abad, Wright, Melancon, Lopez, O, Lyon
For the Bench, O is for other, I’m not sure who we could put there. We obviously need someone, so I would chose Hernandez. Before I would not have chosen Hernandez because he is bad defensively & offensively, but he has shown something at the plate the past couple of weeks, drawing walks & actually hitting. For the Bullpen, O is for other, or somebody we could trade for Lindstrom (who we obviously don’t need with Lyon around). I don’t think Arias will be able to make it through spring training because of all that time he missed, but Alberto Arias did well in 2009.
Welcome!
I would like to point out that this Astro favorite had these stats in his first year:
.211 AVG .254 OBP .350 SLG
I wouldn’t write off the young players so quickly.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 4, 2010 11:36 AM CDT reply actions
Well.
I’m not saying that the young ones are bad, just that they should not all be thrown into one pot at the same time. We know that they can hit, but Manzella, Castro, & Wallace mostly have struggled offensively this year by not showing much at the bottom of the order. I certainly think that the youngsters will be better next year, but I think that another big bat would help tremendously offensively.
Up the middle are the only spaces Wade can really ugrade
considering the sort of game he is playing with the Astros franchise at the moment. If Wade will upgrade, it will be via a trade, rather than free agency.
Shortstop upgrade is needed more than second base. Orem mentioned Dan Uggla a few weeks ago, but I’m throwing Ricky Weeks out there. Eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, the Brewers may not have the finances to sign both him and Corey Hart to long term contracts. Saying that, I don’t see the Brewers wanting to trade him within the division (I’m sure this is the point where Pete upbraids me for even suggesting Milwaukee would trade Weeks).
The Justin Duchscherer suggestion is an intruiging one, but I’m not sure how significant his results would be on the team.
I wish they would trade Weeks
They have options coming in the minors. I’d bet actual money that they’ll extend him though. Melvin loves him and the various media people give the impression that he is loved by the organization.
There’s some ego involved as well. He was a top draft choice and year after year all you ever hear is how much potential he has and if only he didn’t have freak injuries and now he had a really good year. There’s a bit of a ‘see i told you so’ feel to it all.
If they did trade him it would be for major league starting pitching (not of the Figueroa variety) even if they had to make him part of a package.
I’d trade Norris and Keppinger for Weeks
by Timothy De Block on Oct 5, 2010 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd flip
Wandy and Keppinger rather than Kepp and Norris for Weeks (but the Brewers would probably be more amenable to taking Norris, considering he’s cheaper and under team control for quite a few more years).
However, I’m not sure I like giving up Norris. I still think he could be a very good pitcher in time, when he sorts out his control problems and learns to be more tactically nouse on the mound.
My thinking with Weeks is that, as a FA after the 2011 season he would be a Type A FA, and those lovely picks will help us re-stock the system (I think Weeks is Type A borderline this season).
Though there is risk, if you trade one of your starting pitchers (unless you are sold on Figueroa being a starter for the entirety of 2011).
Only with a (not too expensive) extension
That would be a reasonable trade Weeks would sign on for at least a couple more seasons at a decent price, but there’s no way I’d do it for one season of him.
If we were looking for an equal trade, Wandy for Weeks would make more sense. (Weeks had a better year, but Wandy has produced more value over the last three seasons combined.) They are both last arbitration year players.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
My thinking is that I’d like to resign Rodriguez, which is why I don’t offer him. I’m trading Norris because I think his future is in the bullpen. I could be wrong, but I still don’t like his efficiency in the rotation and would rather just have him gone.
Plus as discussed below I’m looking to sign a low cost starter to fill the 4 or 5 spot in the rotation, preferably Vazquez. So I still have Paulino and Figueroa in case of an emergency. If I get really desperate there’s Dallas Keuchel or Jordan Lyles sitting in Triple-A.
Rickie Weeks also looks to be a Type A free agent in his free agency so if I don’t get a deal done with him I have an opportunity with draft picks. If I can’t re-sign Wandy he’s a Type A free agent as well.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 6, 2010 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I just don’t feel comfortable giving up a pair of quality players who are cost-controlled for multiple seasons, in exchange for a one-year rental during a season in which we probably won’t contend either way.
Having Weeks would slightly increase our chances of contending in 2011, but those chances are not good anyway. The draft picks are nice, but consider that Keppinger would already qualify for type B status if he were an impending free agent, and could well qualify for type A by the time he hits free agency.
Of course, similar to the Uggla scenario, it would change things dramatically if Weeks were willing to sign a reasonable extension.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I don’t think Keppinger will be around when the Astros are competing so giving him away is no loss to me. He’s been a nice surprise but in reality he’s only average. Would a C prospect level out the deal for you a bit?
by Timothy De Block on Oct 6, 2010 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Didn't realise Wandy was a Type A
ranked player. Of course I would be very happy with Wade re-signing him for Myers money. But we don’t know what Wandy thinks, mainly because he keeps his own council. Does he want to stay with the Astros? How money motivated is he? What did he think about getting $5m instead of $7m in 2010?
I wonder if we could get a second baseman without giving up major league pitching. Although I’d be happier acquiring a shortstop and leaving Keppinger at second if we were discussing priorities. However, I only mention a second baseman, because I can’t find any examples of SS who fit the bill for the Astros.
Wandy has stated on several occasions that he would like to stay in Houston. The Astros are the only organization he has known, and I think he would be upset to go elsewhere. After he lost his arb hearing last year, he said that outcome only increased his desire to pitch well this year so that the Astros might offer him a multi-year contract. Based on the fact that Wandy went to arb hearing last year, I assume he is motivated to some degree by money (who isn’t, really?). Probably Wandy is one of those players who thinks that salary would validate his status as a premier pitcher in the game.
Duchscherer is a big injury risk. He is moving into Mike Hampton territory as injury-prone. He doesn’t strike me as a good idea.
“Low cost,” high upside pitchers last season included Sheets for $10, Penny for $8 I think and Harden for I dunno – not so good on those. There was one that worked out I think but am spacing on.
Duscherer has had hip problems so maybe he’ll work out, but if he is a decent risk I can’t see him being cheap.
FA Pitchers
Duscherer also has spent time on the DL with anxiety issues. Sometimes those go away (Grienke) and sometimes they don’t (Dontrelle Willis).
The pitching market drops severely after Cliff Lee
The best “low cost” pitchers
Rich Harden= rangers have an 11mil option, doubt they’ll keep him but do we want him for a 7million half season?
Bedard/ Webb/Bonderman= returning from injury, big question marks. I hear Webb is topping out at 81mph right now
Javier Vasquez= Older 35, seems like a steady 12-15 w, 180 inning, 4.5ish era guy. Fly ball pitcher so I don’t see him as a fit…
The best fit may be Kevin Millwood, though I question how much he has in the tank. He could provide a steady vet to help Bud n Paulino thru the rough patches. If he’s our #4 I could see decent numbers for him and he’ll soak up innings. How about 5 or 6mil with an option/buyout for another year?
I’m don’t see Harden as an improvement over the Astros’ current rotation. Bonderman is an interesting idea for comeback, but how much would he cost? Like most of these guys, if he costs a lot, he isn’t worth the risk. Vazquez is probably a decent comeback candidate too, but the cautionary note is that his velocity is down somewhat. That could just be temporary fatigue, or it could be a decline. None of these guys give me a sense of big improvement over what the Astros have right now. Millwood has been up and down over his career; it’s hard to know which pitcher you will get when you sign him. It’s possible he would be helped by moving to the NL.
I like Vazquez, coming off the year he has had should be relatively inexpensive, and is a number four of five starter with the potential of a number two or three guy.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 5, 2010 7:52 AM CDT up reply actions
It’s going to be all about value with those guys. If they are willing to come in on a very cheap deal, it’s worth a shot that you might get another Myers.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 5, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Harden would be an improvement over Bud N Paulino IF he’s healthy. But he’s more of a risk financially. He’ll likely end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 8mil. I don’t see Bonderman as better than Bud, both have similar stuff actually. Bonderman is older and coming off injury, he may have peaked. Bud is about the same level of talent but a couple of years younger and has not had much league experience- more upside.
No quick fixes
I doubt there is a single move that make the 2011 Astros into a contender, so rather than casting around for a marginal upgrade, we ought to be putting everything into building for the future. Let’s face it: until some of the awful contracts expire, we will not be able to afford to sign top free agents. But we can load up the minors, restart the overseas academies, and bring in the best staff and instructors. A few years from now, the team will start to come back. But now we are down and there’s nothing we can do about it.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
I disagree. I don’t see why you can’t do both. Houston has been upgrading their farm since ‘08 and continue to do so. But to me that doesn’t preclude adding pieces at the major league level to field a competitive team. This team had a very good 2nd half and should have up to $15M to spend this offseason. You’re saying that even if they spend that $15M the best way possible, that there’s no way the team can be a winner?
by Snake Diggity on Oct 5, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
actually this might not be the case
his team had a very good 2nd half and should have up to $15M to spend this offseason.
Astros County says that with $39.9m guaranteed, and an estimated $48m estimated in arbitration cases in 2011 (that adds up to $87.9m) , the Astros budget does has not have as much flexibility as some people have assumed.
although....
I’m not sure how the $48m figure estimated by baseball-reference can be anywhere near right.
Yes, B-Ref characterizes the arb-eligible estimate as “very rough,” and it apparently it estimated based upon apply MLB 3 year average salaries to 1st year, 2d year, 3 year arb eligible players. I noticed some errors also: Chris Sampson and Cory Sullivan are listed as arb eligible players, even though they will not be with the team.
I think the B-Ref estimate may be $7 or $8 million too high.
Chip Bailey, chron fanblog, says the Astros have $30 million to spend. He estimates $20 – $25 million for arb eligible players, a lot less than Baseball-Ref. He probably is closer to correct on the arb eligible players, but I think the budget commitments may be higher than he suggests. I think this is partly an accounting question, i.e., how much of the money given to the Yankees and Phillies for Berkman and Oswalt is included within the 2011 payroll budget.
Yep, there’s a lot of guesswork in predicting 2011 payroll flexability. My guesses, assuming we hold steady at $92M total:
Committed:
Lee- $19M
Myers- $10M
Money committed to Oswalt/Berkman- $10M
Lyon- $5.3M
Michaels- $900k
Arbitration guesses:
Wandy- $7M
Pence- $5M
Lindstrom- $3M
Bourn- $4M
Kepp- $3M
Figgy- $1.5M
Byrdak- $1.5M
Q- $1.5M
The rest of the 25 man will get the league minimum ($400k ea to Lopez, Happ, Wallace, Paulino, Abad, Bogey, Johnson, Manzella, Norris, Sanchez, Castro, Downs, Melancon).
That’s a total of $76.9M; $92-77 = $15M. So, I’d put the number between $12 and $18M.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 6, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Crawford
Would like to see him stay a Ray, but figure him to be a Yankee or Bostonian come the off season.
Angels sound like they’ll go hard after him as well.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 6, 2010 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Dunn is another Lee in LF. Berkman has a bum knee and can’t run much anymore, Crawford will be an Angel, and Crisp doesn’t improve the offense. I say pass, pass, pass and pass. Leave Lee in LF until Martinez is ready to take over. Play Wallace at 1st.
I think Berkman would be great. Can spell both LF and 1B, depending on who is struggling and matchups. Can also pinch hit. Hometown guy going out a ’stro. Would probably give us a discount. In order to mitigate the risk of Wallace not panning out and Lee continuing to decline, Houston does need to sign someone with the following characteristics:
-Can hit for power
-Can play 1B and LF
-Will not demand more than 2 years
-Will cost less than $7M/yr
To me, that list includes Berkman, LaRoche, Thome, Burrell, Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Andruw Jones, Branyan, Sweeney, and Dye. Berkman is my pick of those.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 6, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
I have some doubt that Berkman would be satisfied signing as a utility/bench player with his old team. But who knows?
I really like Adam Dunn, and at one time I was sure he would eventually sign with the Astros. That was one of the problems I saw with the Carlos Lee signing (it meant the Astros wouldn’t be able to get a “hometown deal” for Dunn to play LF after 2007, when he was scheduled to become a free agent.) I don’t think there is any question that Dunn wanted to play in Houston. At this point, though, Dunn is probably a worse LFer than Carlos Lee—-and I don’t even think it’s close. If one were to sign Dunn, I think 1st base is the only real option, and he isn’t a good fielder there either. I think the time has passed for Dunn to become an Astros hitter.
I think he’d do it with the understanding that he’d play as much as an everyday guy. He strikes me as the type who would enjoy a farewell tour type of exit.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 7, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd say...
sign Crawford and either release Lee or trade him to ATL for Derek Lowe(Both have same length contract and owed a lot of money.) ATL gets another bat they need desperately in the OF and we get another veteran pitcher to help anchor our staff, fulfilling both team’s needs.
CF – Bourn
2B – Kepp
LF – Crawford
RF- Pence
3B – Johnson
1B – Wallace
C – Castro
SS – Manzella
P
Myers
Wandy
Lowe
Happ
Norris/Paulino
Not bad, but I doubt Atlanta would trade Lowe for Lee straight up. And signing Crawford would take up the entirety of the excess payroll for not only next year, but future years as well. The last thing Houston should do right now is sign a $15M+/yr guy to a long contract. That rotation is improved from 2010, but that offense is roughly the same. Houston’s most pressing need is at SS.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 6, 2010 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I’d be excited about this roster:
1. Bourn CF
2. Tejada SS
3. Pence RF
4. Lee/Berkman/Bogusevic/Michaels LF
5. Johnson 3B
6. Berkman/Wallace 1B
7. Castro/Quintero C
8. Keppinger/Sanchez 2B
Rotation: Chris Young, Myers, Wandy, Happ, Norris
Bullpen: Figueroa, Byrdak, Abad, Melancon, Lindstrom, Lopez, Lyon
by Snake Diggity on Oct 6, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
There has got to be a better option than Tejeda at short and Byrdak in the bullpen. Berkman would be a waste of payroll, his splits as a RH hitter are horrible, so a platoon of Berkman/Wallace would make absolutely no sense. Again, if you platoon Berkman/Lee in LF your defense doesn’t improve any and you’re paying a guy 19mill a year to sit more than half the games.
Fair enough.
But who would you put at SS? Manzella and Sanchez are both well below average and neither projects to develop to be much more than a quality bench player.
I can understand leaving Berkman off (emotion is probably causing a big bias on my part), but where would you add power to the lineup without adding a big contract (which would hamper the continuation of the rebuilding process)? Rely on Wallace to develop and Lee to rebound?
by Snake Diggity on Oct 6, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Well the Red Sox might have a decision to make next year with Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro. I’d take either on the Astros. I wonder if that could be a possibility?
The idea of trading for Lowrie is tantalizing; I think the occasional commenter “baggs” has mentioned that idea for some time. However, based on what I’ve read recently, the Red Sox may have plans of Lowrie. It is questionable whether the Red Sox will re-sign Beltre. Beltre had a great offensive season and he is represented by Scott Boras (you can guess what kind of salary demand comes with that). If the Red Sox don’t re-sign Beltre, they probably will move Lowrie to 3d base. (Youkliis apparently has declined defensively as a third baseman.)
The Red Sox have ridiculous SS depth
Besides Scutaro and Lowrie, they also have Yamaico Navarro and Jose Iglesias in the upper minors. To me, that makes them the number one candidate to trade with the Astros (again) and upgrade our shortstop position. It doesn’t really matter to me which of those guys we would trade for, as long as we could get one of them.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
hinges on Carlos Lee
This whole offseason hinges on what to do with Lee. If we keep him where does he play, if its at first it blocks Wallace (who IMO needs to play to see how he can handle major league pitching) or if you play him in left it blocks the younger guys and maybe even a FA. now you can trade lee but to whom, i did some quick research and the only destinations i can come up with are Angels and Braves maybe the red sox and yankees on a LONG shot. if you trade him to the angels it would probably be for Kazmir bad contract for bad contract plus they need a BIG bat. the braves trade would include lowe but we would also need to throw in a minor leaguer to sweeten the deal. once we figure out what to do with lee we can move forward and right now he is slowing the rebuilding process because of the players he blocks. i think he needs to be dangled out there and we need to take what we can get no matter how small of a return it is, the ties need to be cut with him just because were moving in a different direction than we were when we signed him. bringing berkman is not to bad of an idea but he cant play everyday and he seems done to me and im pretty sure he wont be a bench player.
For the Astros to compete next year Lee HAS to go other wise we are in for another 2010 season, of his money comes off the books then we can pretty much do whatever we want as far as FA’s go and minor leaguers.
Agree
100%… Lee has to go, either by trade or release. ATL I think is the best choice, we can grab a veteran pitcher (Lowe) and send them a bat and probably Koby Clemens(pretty sure ATL does not have a 1B prospect to take over 1B.)
Actually, they do
Freddie Freeman is a first baseman and he is a top 50 prospect in baseball.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
What’s our payroll at right now? Somewhere around $50m? If so, let’s say Bourn, Pence, and Wandy all get raises bumping the total up to $60m.
Now, if I were Wade, I’d take another $20-30m to upgrade three positions: Starting pitching, catcher, and LF (assuming Lee stays at first—1B if not).
Regarding the starting pitching, I think Nelson Figueroa was a great pickup, but I see him more as a Brian Moehler-type who had a pretty good season with the Astros, but will likely not repeat the same success next season. That said, though, I’d love to keep him around as the swing man (and taking Moehler’s spot in the process).
Felipe Paulino is a good pitcher, but after multiple chances, he hasn’t shown the consistency to be a starter. He also seems injury prone. Quite an electric fastball though, so I’d move him to the bullpen (perhaps taking Jeff Fulchino’s spot).
So, for the open spot in the rotation, I’d take $10 million and sign a proven starter (maybe Kevin Millwood or Vicente Padilla type) at one or two years. It doesn’t necessarily need to be a guy who’s going to be an ace, but someone who can throw 200 innings a year and just give the team a solid chance to win some games.
For the catcher spot, I’d like to sign someone like Jason Varitek or Dioner Navarro (assuming he gets non-tendered) to a one year deal somewhere around the 5m mark. Jason Castro is a promising young player, but he needs another season getting games here and there before I trust him as our starter. Humberto Quintero has a good arm, but not much offense. I’m guessing he’s also going to be looking for a raise in arbitration too. He’s a perfect non tender candidate.
For the outfield, I doubt we could afford Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford, but how about someone like Johnny Damon or Nick Swisher on a one year 8-12m deal at LF? Maybe Cody Ross or Scott Hairston at 4-6m? Whichever way you go, there’s still some decent offense and much improved defense over Carlos Lee.
Regardless of who we sign, the only people who should be getting more than 2 years are named Pence, Bourn, and Wandy. Considering we still really have no idea how good or bad next years team could be, there’s no point in hamstringing ourselves with another big contract that could potentially affect another sell-off/rebuild.
All good ideas; my thoughts:
-You don’t have them signing a SS, which IMHO is by far the biggest hole on the roster.
-$10M for a starting pitcher eats most of the available payroll, I’d rather them go for a $2-8M/yr guy with higher risk but equal upside.
-$5M for Varitek or Navarro is too high; if they’re going to spend that much they could get a guy like John Buck who is younger and more productive.
-Wouldn’t mind Hairston as an OF. I’d like them to stay away from the expensive guys. There are a LOT of LFers on the market, which I think is why they started giving Lee time at 1st, because the flooded mkt may mean they can sign a LFer at reduced price.
-Totally agree about no deals longer than 3 years.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 11, 2010 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
I left off the SS position because...
I didn’t see any good fits (value vs. contract) on a FA signing, nor a player who’d upgrade us on defense.
Besides, we already have two perfectly serviceable shortstops in Manzella (who’s got good defense and was heating up with the bat late in the season) and Sanchez (who’s a decent contact hitter and so so fielder).
Oh yeah, and don’t forget about Jio Mier. Assuming he can put it together in the minors, he’ll be ready in the next year or two. Do we really want to block him with a FA before we see what he’s capable of?
I don't think Manzella or Sanchez are serviceable
Both were below replacement level, which is pretty darn bad. Manzella in particular could rebound and be a lot better next season, but when “a lot better” is about 1 WAR, that’s pretty dubious for an everyday regular.
Jio Mier is at least two years off (and actually, apparently Baseball America thinks Jonathan Villar is by far the better prospect).
That said, I agree with your comments about the shortstop free agent market. I would hope that Ed Wade will focus most of his energies on trying to trade for a shortstop in the offseason.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
need a longer look
I don’t see any major free agents being a logical fit. Most of them will want a long contract and then we will be in the same situation as we are with Lee right now. I love Crawford and he will be dominant for another few years, but he will probably sign a contract that extends past his productive years. Isn’t it more likely that he will turn into Carlos Beltran with less power than continue his Ricky Henderson impersonation?
Berkman seems like a good fit for the Rangers as a DH/1B. However if he keeps up this playoff surge the Yankees might want to keep him. I would think being on a contender would be most important for him these days. Of course if he wins it all this season he may just retire.
The Astros should try and unload Lee which is unlikely and try and pry a real SS away from the Red Sox (but what could they trade?). Then stand pat and see if the young guys take a step forward and if the rotation can keep them in the hunt next season. If they’re in it at the deadline they can pursue someone like Uggla or LF bat or even Berkman depending on his situation.
They are just now getting out from heavy contracts and it doesn’t make sense to add more unless you think you have pieces already in place to compete. Most likely, they’re not there yet, but if Johnson, Wallace, and Castro can hold down they’re positions next year then you can shop around.
I think there are plenty of players who would be willing to take a 1-2 yr deal at a moderate price (either because of their age or the fact that they are coming off of an unproductive year):
Catchers- Miguel Olivo, Torrealba, Juan Castro, Ramon Hernandez, Varitek, Zaun
Corner OF/1B- Berkman, LaRoche, Thome, Konerko, Burrell, Matsui, Branyan, Sweeney, Dye
Middle Infield- Bill Hall, Uribe, Tejada, Renteria, Vizquel, Orlando Cabrera, Jerry Hairston
Starting Pitchers- Chris Young, Andy Pettitte, Duchscherer, Penny, Kuroda, Takahashi
Relievers- Kerry Wood
I agree they should pass on Crawford.
Carlos Lee is untradeable.
I think everyone is in agreement that Houston should avoid adding any heavy contracts (longer than 3 years, greater than $10M/yr).
SPs
I’d guess Andy P is either a Yank or retires although if there is any other team he might go to, its the Stros. Duscherer is a hell of a risk. Penny is a big one too. Kuroda has a lot of leverage because he is probably willing to retire if he doesn’t get a team and a deal that he feels great about.
Here's the trouble
Catcher: Jason Castro remains a very good prospect, and the only major issue he had this season was BABIP—likely self-correcting. Need to find out what we’ve got.
First base: Brett Wallace, like Castro, is a good prospect, and we need to find out what we have in him. Even if he ends up back at AAA, Carlos Lee is as likely to be a decent first baseman as most of those guys.
Corner outfield: If J.D. Martinez is good enough to start, we might wind up regretting such a signing as early as June. Regardless, the only names which inspire any confidence in me are Werth and Crawford, and they will require too much money and too many years.
Starting pitchers: We’re already pretty deep in starting pitching, especially if you include Lyles, Keuchel, Arguello, etc. Signing another SP reclamation project would just take time away from younger players who might amount to something.
Shortstop: None of the free agents inspire any confidence in me. The shortstops are old, have bad bodies, or both, and I don’t feel confident that any of them would be worth more than ~1.5 WAR. Could be worth rolling the dice, but I’d rather trade for one or pick one in the rule 5 draft.
Second base: Keppinger is as good a second baseman as any on the free agent market, which is weak. He’s also less expensive.
In short, I think we need to consider this another rebuilding year, because we have too many questions which need answering before we start filling holes with free agents. It doesn’t make sense to sign old veterans to one-year deals unless you’re close, and I don’t think we’re close yet.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Scouting the Sally
questioned whether J.D. Martinez is actually a power prospect, something about his swing being very level, and his ISO after being promoted would seem to scream that.
I understand their concerns
I’m not ready to commit to an opinion one way or the other, though. The sample size wasn’t very large at AA ball, and jumping straight up from single A is a really big adjustment. We’ll find out a lot about his real offensive potential this upcoming season.
And heck, even if he only has 10-15 HR power, he could still be a 2 WAR player just by hitting for average. I’d be fine with that, and would rather have it than wasting money in free agency on a player likely to produce similar value.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
JD does have a pretty level swing. There just isn’t much loft. But, the thing that I took from the STS report was that there is a difference between his in-game swing vs his BP swing. He has a little more loft in the BP swing as well as more force in his swing compared to his in-game swing where he gets out over his front foot. The talent is there, he just has to make the adjustments to hit the way he does in BP. Something that all minor leaguers have to do.
The fact that he can make contact as well as he can, with a few adjustments, I think he can be a good ML player. Like Orem said, it will be more on the weight of his ability to hit for average, but I think he can be more of a 15-20 HR guy.
I was thinking I could see him being a bit like the 2009 version of Chris Coghlan. Lots of doubles and a good OBP driven by hitting for average. That actually comes out to a 3-win player over a full season. However, it might be more like 2.5 when you regress the BABIP to more reasonable levels.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
A shortstop I’ve been thinking about is Jason Bartlett. The interesting question about him is whether he is a good defender or not. By all metrics, Bartlett was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball four or five years ago. Currently, Bartlett is one of those players who gets very divergent defensive results depending on whether you use UZR or Fielding Bible (DRS). DRS has him a +2 this year and +4 in 2009. UZR/150 has him at -14 and -6.9 this year and in 2009, respectively. With UZR, his WAR last year was only 0.7, but if DRS is correct, his WAR would be around 2.3.
I think it is unlikely that Bartlett will remain with Tampa Bay next year. I would expect him to be a non-tender candidate with Reid Brignac likely to become the starting shortstop. Bartlett could be a cheap 1 year fill-in. Perhaps he could take the Blum position and back up 3d and shortstop. If Manzella continues to hit terribly, Bartlett could take over at shortstop and (hopefully) provide acceptable defense with acceptable offense for a shortstop. I’m not saying this is a great solution or anything…just throwing the idea out.
Or a trade for him.
Similar to the Lindstrom deal. Alternatively, something of the like with Boston for Marco Scutaro, who I’m still a fan of.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
MLBTR
Said Hiroyuki Nakajima will be posted. I don’t know how much he will go for, but he might be worth a look for a SS.
Kaz Matsui...
was also a SS in the NPB, but then converted to a 2B once in the MLB. Not sure if that’s because nobody had confidence in his arm or defensive ability, but if everyone is looking at Nakajima the same way (essentially as a 2B in the MLB), I don’t see him as an upgrade over Keppinger.
From reports I've heard
It’s hard to say whether he could stay at shortstop in MLB. But it’s possible.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Kaz Matsui was signed as shortstop by the Mets and played most of a season at shortstop, but Reyes came up from the minors and was obviously a better defensive shortstop, which caused Matsui to be moved to second base. Matsui had the reputation as a great defensive shortstop in Japan, but I think we may have missed those years in the U.S. due to age. I don’t know about Nakajima’s ability to play shortstop in the majors.
I thought that too...
but I don’t no what scouts think. Kaz may have been better if he could string more playing time together without being injured. There were times that he looked like he could play but then his playing time would get interrupted by an injury. I don’t know how injuries affected his defense. If scouts think Nakajima can hold the position for 2 or 3 seasons he may be worthwhile. I don’t expect the Astros to pay to negotiate, though. Personally, I would rather just give up money to get a shortstop as opposed to giving up players and then pay him a high salary.
Speaking of...
What, exactly, has Glen Barker done for the Astros?
I mean, I understand what his job is and all, but the guy doesn’t appear to have helped the franchise very much to this point. CJ Lo is his best signing, thus far, but he only pitched 15 innings at Corpus in 2010 due to elbow problems.
The last time I even heard Barker’s name mentioned is when we signed Chan Jong Moon—and that was over a year ago!
I guess the point is, why don’t we have someone who can be as influential as the Redsox, Dodgers, or Mariners when it comes to signing Asian players?
I agree.
After doing laundry I decided that I really want them to sign Nakajima. Not because I think he will make an impact, but because I realized that I have his t-shirt that I got on opening day. The guy in the shop asked me which player I wanted, so I shrugged and said I wanted a good one.
The Padres hired Barker recently
http://www.cbs6albany.com/articles/san-1278486-albany-barker.html
Barker was also I believe the first guy to head into the Asian market for the Astros. Expecting leaps and bounds in signing Asian players is a bit misguided. Talent level and competition against other clubs to sign players is a reason why you haven’t seen the fruits of Barker’s labor. He was also sent over there in 2007, and the players he signs has to still go through the minor league system.
We probably would of seen Chia-Jen Lo sometime next year, but because of his injury he may be pushed back a year or two. Chan Moon is 19.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 15, 2010 7:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Good take, but I don’t consider adding free agents at positions where there is no legit player/prospect ready to contribute a bad idea. I don’t think we have any starting pitchers or shortstops who will be ready to contribute before September of next year, so spending a little money to add some excitement and fill those holes makes sense (especially at SS). I agree that trading is another viable solution; it’s all about value.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 12, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
I don’t think we have any starting pitchers or shortstops who will be ready to contribute before September of next year
Shortstops, yes, but starting pitchers? Myers, Wandy, Happ, Norris, Paulino, Figueroa seems like enough to me.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I was referring to starting pitching prospects. Obviously Myers, Wandy, Happ, and Norris are penciled in for next year. I think Paulino’s time has passed. I think Figueroa is a spot starter/long reliever. Of the other guys in the mix (Lyles, Wright, Keuchel, etc), I think they are either (in Lyles’ and Keuchel’s case) more than a year away or (in Wright and everyone else’s case) don’t have the ceiling to be counted on to develop into a reliable rotation member.
My point was that I think bringing in a free agent to compete for the 5th rotation slot is a good idea since there isn’t anyone currently on the roster or farm who stands out. Same thing with shortstop.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 12, 2010 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Why would you think Paulino’s time is past? That seems pretty shortsighted. None of the available free agent starting pitchers have a better cost/reward ratio, in my opinion. In fact, I still think Paulino has a better chance of of being a top of the rotation starter than either Norris or Happ.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I believe it’s time to get past counting on Paulino as a rotation mainstay for the following reasons:
-Hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings in a season since 2007.
-Has not consistently performed at an acceptable/above average level in 3 major league auditions.
-Has been the very definition of “oft-injured”
-Entering peak age (he’s already 27) without ever pitching a complete season, even at the minor league level (the most innings he’s ever pitched in a season is 131, way back in 2007).
We won’t know if any of the free agents have a better cost/reward ratio until the market gets set. We have no sure way of knowing what Webb, Duch, Young, etc are going to sign for.
While Paulino’s stuff (and ceiling) may be higher than Norris’ and Happ’s, you can’t look at that in a vacuum, especially given the other, extensive, more concrete evidence of actual results. I’m not counting on Norris or Happ to be a #1 or #2 guy, but I’d bet MUCH heavier on them being #4 guys for the next 3 years than I would Paulino ever pitching a full, healthy, productive season.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 12, 2010 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions
just saw I messed up on my inning count statement, as he pitched 131 innings in 2009, but I don’t think that dramatically changes my argument.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 12, 2010 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions
And if Wade let’s a young pitcher go in his prime years and he catches on with another team and becomes a top of the rotation starter, we’ll all be grabbing the pitch forks and torches and heading to Ed Wades office.
He isn’t expensive, this team is rebuilding, there’s no reason to throw away a young player with potential.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 12, 2010 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I would be very disappointed if the team gave up on Paulino. And it makes no sense to think those guys you’ve mentioned, who are the epitome of injury risk, would be better than Paulino who was on the cusp of putting it altogether this year. Yes, Paulino is an injury risk, but the injury risk is much greater for guys like Webb, Ducherer, and Young. And we won’t be wondering if Paulino will have enough left in his arm to exceed 85 mph, like those guys.
Where do you draw the line with Paulino? One more season? 2? 3? Until he’s 35 and never pitched more than 140 innings in a season?
I don’t want them to throw Paulino away; as far as I can tell, he still has at least one option remaining, so even if he doesn’t make the rotation we can stash him in AAA for another season. I just think the upside/value of some of the free agent guys is worth exploring as a possible better scenario.
What’s more likely, that one of Webb/Duch/Young etc signs for cheap and wins 15 games, or that Paulino somehow puts it all together and does the same? There’s an argument both ways, but my opinion is the former.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 13, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm still hopeful Paulino
can be good. He had a string of 5 excellent starts in mid-season.
2 against Colorado, and one each against the Cubs, Reds and Brewers. Them not bad hitting teams. He shutdown the Reds for eight innings at Great American Ballpark.
Paulino is 26, the same age Wandy Rodriguez was in 2005 (and Norris is 25).
in my opinion. In fact, I still think Paulino has a better chance of of being a top of the rotation starter than either Norris or Happ.
On this I totally agree, but the list of injuries are frustrating, but not as frustrating as having to type out Felipe del Guidice Paulino every time he was mentioned.
On pure stuff, he could be a very good pitcher. But things have yet to come together, be it injuries, command, ‘pitchability’ etc. Remember we control this guy through 2015, way beyond when Myers and Rodriguez will have departed.
Drawing the line
seems pretty simple. When he gets too expensive due to service time or when the Astros are back in the hunt, and he’s not living up to his talent level. Next season, as was this one, is best spent giving Paulino playing time. If they’re in it at the deadline and Paulino is not all that he should be then they should look to replace him.
Or if a great trade of Paulino comes up this offseason where they can add an impact player that will be under team control for 2 or 3 seasons.
Personally, I think Paulino is more likely to have good production than the retreads. I won’t predict wins, because
that is a garbage stat for pitchers. Paulino didn’t get the wins last year, because he had one of the unluckiest seasons I have seen in awhile. But when I wrote a story around mid-June, Paulino’s rate stats arguably made him the 2d best pitcher in the Astros’ rotation. He was top 15 in the majors in FIP, as I recall. So, I think Paulino was good last year as a starter, and I think you don’t give up on him as long as he is good.
Scutaro, Tejada, or Orlando Cabrera would be cool.
I’d def. take C Ramon Hernandez.
Is SP Brandon Webb a FA?
Heard that...
Webb is looking to come back as a reliever. Injury history, price-tag, and the fact he can’t/won’t start anymore seem like red flags to me.
My plan is that the Astros sign Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, or Jayson Werth. Once we get the pop in our lineup our pitchers won’t get stressed out about run support. Not only that a SS, I have no faith in Manzella at all. We NEED to sign Uribe or trade for somebody with experience and pop. And lastly a SP, anybody…Snell, Lee, Webb, Durscher, anybody. That’s my medicine for the Astros. If we get that then we’ll be on our way to a pennant.
Crawford/Dunn/Werth will all cost $15M/yr+. That would eat all of the teams available payroll (and then some), meaning no other moves can be made. I’d rather see them sign 3-4 midlevel FA’s than 1 big one, especially since the 3-4 players would likely come in on 1-2 yr deals instead of the monster 5-6 yr deals Crawford and Werth would get.
I’d like to see Houston sign John Buck and Juan Uribe, then try to work a trade for a young SS. I would also like them to bring in a risky SP candidate, though I’m not sure which one (it would depend on price).
by Snake Diggity on Oct 25, 2010 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
zack greinke is on the market what would we have to give up and carlos lee needs to be out of here
I think pitching is most important greinke,happ,myers,wandy,norris would be great. I think bullpen is nice already,we always had pretty good pitching.Its those 2-1 loses that kills me boston catcher is on market an they have pretty good young SS there also think his name is navarro he is homer but berkman is done wallace cant hit a beachball best for him castro is aaa crawford could be nice but to much money. adrian gonzalez my lineup card BOURN,CRAWFORD,MARTINEZ,GONZALEZ,JOHNSON,PENCE,KEPPINGER,NAVARRO all just a dream ,lot of money just want to win for a little wild. how much for this team a year THANKS GUYS
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Crawfish Boxes
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
| Sat 05/26 |
WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1) |
3 - 6 loss |
|
Houston Astros
Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
||
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
