An Open Letter to Drayton McLane, Part II
Dear Mr. McLane,
I wrote an open letter to you earlier this season in hopes that you might actually read it and possibly take a few of my suggestions to heart. After all, I am merely a fan of the franchise and long for nothing more than our Houston Astros to finally bring a World Championship banner to Minute Made Park. I do realize that a few of the points that I made were actually implemented (i.e. the Roy Oswalt/Lance Berkman trades) but I believe that those were necessities that would have been carried out regardless. Therefore, I will offer up a few opinions and suggestions as a fan. The boys that write for Crawfish Boxes are far more suited to go over the X's and O's as far as statistical data, minor league prospects and so forth than I am, so my goal is to just call it like I see it.
I think the most exciting part of watching the Houston Astros post All-Star break was of course the ideology of the "Youth Movement". I have to admit, watching the Baby Astros, as a friend of mine so succinctly called them, was far more interesting and inspiring than to watch our team grind themselves into last place in the National League Central. My heart was broken to see Oswalt and Berkman go. Over the last 10 years or so, I have become profoundly attached to Berkman and his no-nonsense style of baseball. The guy called it like he saw it, damn the consequences. But in order for our team to improve now and moving forward, he and the Astros front office knew it was time to cut ties. Which brings me to my first point:
1.) Don't get stuck in the past.
I would love nothing more than for The Puma to return to wearing Brick Reds. The major concern of mine is A.) how much is it going to cost and B.) what positions/bench roles/future growth as a player are going to suffer?
I could definitely see Berkman as a utility first baseman or pinch hitter. Berkman obviously offers more power than Jason Michaels, but at the cost of a more limited role. Michaels can play any outfield position at least fairly well, whereas Berkman is really relegated to the first base role.
I love the idea of having Berkman as a switch hitter coming off the bench but the cost vs. return is a major concern. Ultimately, I think the most logical and practical thing to do moving forward is just let Lance go. It hurts to say it, but it is necessary.
2.) The Carlos Lee/Brett Wallace Quandry
Oh, El Bufalo.
Carlos Lee is coming off one of his worst seasons as a professional baseball player. The statistical oddity I found was that Carlos Lee's on-base percentage and batting average both increased when he switched to first. The big elephant in the room with Lee is his gigantic salary. The Astros can ill afford to pay a man $19 million to be a utility first baseman.
"But Brett Wallace wasn't that good this year! He was batting just over .200!"
Yeah, but so was the guy that Lance Berkman replaced when he made his Astros debut. I am by no means comparing Brett Wallace to Jeff Bagwell, but give the guy a year or two. I think a full spring training in the Astros organization under Bagwell will vastly improve the way Wallace plays the game.
I also believe that Brad Mills needs to have a little more confidence in Wallace. His Triple-A stats show that Wallace rakes against LHP. Let him hit against them. This was a lost season by All-Star break, so why not try any and every available combination to see what really works? Lee needs to either A.) move to a team that could use him, even if it means eating a large portion of his salary or B.) accept the fact that he's gonna play left field and possibly be a bench player. It's time to move on. Carlos is not producing for the amount of money we are paying him.
3.) Newfound Salary Space vs. Paper Thin Free Agency Market
I know that Ed Wade is pretty clever when it comes to turning trash into treasure (a la Jeff Keppinger, Brett Myers, Angel Sanchez), but the Astros from here on out need to be very conservative when it comes to free agency. The Astros obviously have more than a few needs this offseason, but those needs are by no means unfillable.
Our relief pitching corps is pretty solid. Mark Melancon and Wilton Lopez, followed by the tandem of Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon, is pretty darn good, as long as they aren't overworked. How is that problem solved? Starting Pitching.
Brett Myers was an absolute diamond in the rough. The guy ate massive amounts of innings and racked up an astounding amount of quality starts. Is he a No. 1? Not at all. Nor is Wandy Rodriguez, but when it comes to Wandy, you never really know who is going to show up. Same thing with Bud Norris, who I believe in all honestly has the best stuff amongst Astros starting pitchers.
WIth Norris, he needs some veteran leadership and the tutelage of Brad Arnsberg to turn the corner and become the No. 3 or 4 pitcher he is capable of being. Felipe Paulino at this point is a lost cause. The guy can be invaluable out of the 'pen, but is nowhere near healthy enough to start.
Where do we go from here? I think the three most important needs that have to be addressed this offseason are acquiring a No. 5 innings-eater pitcher (at least until Jordan Lyles is seasoned enough to be an Astro, which still may be another year), solve the 2B/SS debate (I really like Jeff Keppinger at 2B as he is the most solid average hitter and does not strike out very often, and would like to see a tandem of Tommy Manzella and Angel Sanchez until one of them proves the right to start on a regular basis), as well as what I feel is the most important thing: acquiring a power bat.
The Astros have no one other than Hunter Pence (who really hit way beyond his ability the second half of the season) to carry the offense of the team. We cannot win games on defense alone. Our current pitching staff cannot support that. I would love to see someone like Carl Crawford come the the Astros, but we all know he's going to be a Yankee or Red Sock come the 2011 season.
4.) And Most Importantly- The Improvement of the City as a Baseball Town
If you refer back to an earlier piece I wrote for Crawfish Boxes (my Fenway Park Piece), you will notice that what I found most endearing to the team was the atmosphere that surrounded the whole baseball experience in Boston. Why not try to lure a few more restaurants or pubs or vendors to the Minute Made area? The Red Sox had a miserable team for quite a long time, but still had rabid fans the entire time.
I feel that the experience of going to a baseball game as a whole is the majority of what endears people to the game. We have to face an obvious situation that Major League Baseball is fighting a losing battle to the NFL. Baseball will be supplanted as the national past time by football in a decade. I think that improving the baseball experience as a whole will attract and create repeat business to the Astros organization, as well as increase revenue and allow for a larger budget when it comes to payroll. It's a very win-win situation. You make more money, the fans have more fun, the payroll increases, we can afford to pay premium players, the team improves as a whole, attendance goes up. It's something to mull over.
I will say that I did enjoy the second half of the season a great deal more than the first. I will admit to losing interest once the football season began, as I usually get wrapped up in the multitude of fantasy football leagues I participate in, but with a few improvements, a whole heaping amount of luck, some heart and attention to detail, the Housotn Astros could vastly improve prior to the 2011 Season.
Yours Truly,
Phil Hodges aka allphilla
Go Astros 2011 NLCS Champions
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To think that (A) any team in MLB would take Carlos Lee regardless of how much money the Astros eat is ridiculous. It is almost as ridiculous as thinking (B) the Astros would be better served by having Carlos Lee become a bench player. Love him or hate him he is the best and most accomplished hitter on the team. Benching Brett Wallace and playing Lee at first is the obvious choice, the additional outfield options are much more appealing both defensively and offensively.
by AstrosAndElbows on Oct 13, 2010 1:03 PM CDT reply actions
I am going to have to disagree. When leaving Carlos Lee in because over his career has has proven to be the most accomplished hitter becomes a hindrance to the team, as this past season has shown, it’s time to move on. Sure a $19 million a year bench player is obviously ridiculous, but so is a sub .240 hitting guy making the same amount. Time to bring up the young guys. We aren’t going to get any younger or any better with this guy clogging up a position.
Benching Wallace? Why did we trade for him in the first place? Should have just moved Carlos Lee to first place anyway. I have heard a lot of talk that the front office moved Carlos to first to shop him around as a viable 1B. I have always liked Carlos, but like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, it’s time to go.
"That's funny. You like Samurai Swords, I like Baseball!"
-Hatori Hanzo
I think that Lee will have a rebound year offensively. But that’s just a guess, and I could be wrong. I don’t think he is likely to be tradeable. If he can be traded, nice idea. But realistically I don’t see it happening. I am reluctant to put Lee on the bench if he has any power left—because the Astros are so HR-deficient. Carlos Lee had 24 of the 104 HRs hit by the Astros as a team. It’s scary to realize that Lee and Pence together accounted for a little less than one-half the Astros’ HRs. Whether Lee plays 1st base or not probably depends on how Wallace performs in spring training.
I would recommend to put in another section about exposure and uts effect on fans and long term revenue
With the Astros no longer having a FOX regional cable deal they have effectively given their rights for both the SA and Austin markets to the Rangers for the foreseeable future. Combine this with Texas now taking over RR as their AAA affiliate and the likelihood of any Astros based cable network being picked up in those population centers is very very small.
A large portion of the Astros fan base will now be cut off in the near future. This not only effects the short term revenue generation of the club but more importantly has a long term negative effect on the team as well. The Rangers have a young exciting team with an Astros legend in Ryan as a easily likable figurehead that is being driven by Texas oil money and one of the best PR and events men in the game in Greenberg. This is a situation that will make it easy for some of this lost fan base to quickly switch over and if this continues over an extended time frame there will be no fans in these regions left to swoop back in and save by the time the Astros cable venture becomes a viable working entity that will be picked up outside of the Houston metro area.
This is a very important time for the Astros as a business. For a long long time the Rangers where poorly run and did little to exert any pressure on the Astros in the state of Texas. The Astros have been king as far as Texas baseball is concerned (I will not get into the discussion about out of market teams and their fan influence) for a long time. It is too easy for people that are die hard fans to dismiss the effect changes like this will have on the casual fan or to hide behind the AL/NL shield throw up when discussion turn to competing media markets. These things matter to the casual fan and those are the fans that all MLB teams have to reach to be a viable revenue producer. Very very very few markets can get past the need to reach the casual fan due to size or long term success and unfortunately the Astros have neither of those advantages. Media market and revenue generation go hand and hand. At some point a realistic longterm view of both the Media market and longterm revenue generation need to be addressed. Someone needs to calm the fears of the potential fans that could be left out in the cold.
People always use the cliche that “winning cures everything”, but that isn’t always the case. It is hard to reach the next generation of baseball fan if they never see you play on TV. There will always be some residual growth due to parents and family members, but a large portion of new fans are directly influence by what they see everyday. At some point early in a child’s fandom they become fans of “X” team and most of the time it is due to a local player or a magical season that captivated that child. There will now be less and less regions for this to happen in the state of Texas.
At some point in the future areas that have been historically strong Astros supporters will sway to the Rangers just due to what is on TV. In those markets the stores will now carry Rangers merchandise as the primary team of choice, radio will use Rangers players instead of Astros players for advertising spots…. All of this eventually effects both the Astros bottom line and the secondary income of the Astros players. At some point the Astros will not be the primary team in Texas if this pattern holds true with no attempts to stop it.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Oct 13, 2010 3:36 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Well stated laxtonto. It’s a shame that such a large portion of the state will lose the ability to watch the Astros on television. And you are absolutely correct in the statement that “winning cures” everything is just a cliche. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays. I was looking more of a grassroots starting point. The City of Houston as a whole, as well as other cities with baseball teams in them unfortunately, do not necessarily have the support or attention that a franchise deserves. Its sad when I go downtown to a baseball game and the majority of the buildings around Minute Made are empty or derelict. Sure there are a few places to go to before and after the game, but having visited a larger market team, there were plenty of things to do around the park prior to and after, which I think becomes more of a draw to go to a game in the first place.
I would like to investigate the lack of the Astros regional cable deal more.
"That's funny. You like Samurai Swords, I like Baseball!"
-Hatori Hanzo
The Astros still have a cable deal with FoxSW until 2013; so it’s not like the Astros are disappearing from Austin/SA broadcasts in the near term. It’s up to the Astros to terminate the deal, or else it extends beyond 2013. However, FoxSW seems to feel like they will probably lose the Astros, or so it is reported. If Comcast takes over the deal, as is rumored, they will have to negotiate with Time Warner, Grande, etc. to carry the games; however, I don’t think Comcast would pay so much money for rights to the Astros unless they are confident they can do that. The cable companies will base their decisions on eyeballs / ratings. My experience in Austin tells me that the Astros are dominant in terms of viewership. Where McLane may get hurt by terminating the FoxSW deal is that Fox will be free to show Rangers’ games in Houston.
actually no...
Fox’s willingness to commit to a new deal with the Rangers was interpreted Monday as an indication that it is moving on from what appears to be a futile attempt to keep the Rockets and Astros past 2012. Major League Baseball’s rules governing broadcasting territories will allow FS Southwest to continue airing Rangers games in Houston, even if the Astros and Rockets go elsewhere
2012 is the last year…. It seems that the Astros and Rockets are going to go ahead and try to start their own RSN much like they were planning on doing before the FSN Houston deal which has been a financial flop for Fox.
As far as negotiations go, Fox Regional would supersede rights over a RSN (Regional Sports Network) due to the fact that it would be a specialty channel so the Astros being played in Austin would require fans to either pony up for an additional channel because it won’t be on the standard sport tier or to watch the 150 Rangers games shown a year and go see the local AAA team which happens to be a Rangers affiliate. What do you think will happen for the casual fan? How long before Astros fans dying for baseball begin tunning into the Rangers? This is just the beginning of the Rangers longterm plan dominate the Texas market. The fact that the Astros are going to attempt to start their own RSN just accelerates the process for Texas.
The profits if the RSN takes off could be gigantic. The problem is that the Astros and Rockets will have a hard time filling all of the programming schedule. One of the reasons Cuban was considering buying the Rangers was that it would include him purchasing the Stars at a later date. This would have provide and additional 82 games a year to combine with is own MavsTV content on HDNet. As it stands the local college broadcast rights for local college games will all still shown on FSW, so there is no bleed over in the football side. A RSN based solely in Houston will have a major problem with providing original content.
This is a huge problem. FSN really doesn’t need to offer the Astros more due to the fact that they don’t think a RSN based off of just the Astros and Rockets will ever be strong enough to be able to force their way off of the specialty sports tier. FSN was legitimately afraid of Cuban and HDNet and the hole that would create in their FSN programming due to the loss of the Rangers, Stars and Mavs. They have none of those restrictions in Houston due to the fact that FSHouston is just the standard FSW broadcast with the evening blocks changed and some local football format changes.
Is it worth paying the Astros and Rockets approximately 120M a year to create specialty broadcasts that will only legitimately hurt ratings in one Metro area? Big picture it makes no sense to play nice with the Astros now. Do the Astros and Rockets bring in 120M annually in advertising revenue and dedicated subscription fees? Of course not. The FSHouston revenue should reach or exceed that how many of those viewers are going to cancel their sports cable package over the Astros and Rockets? They might get the RSN in addition to their sports tier, but with FSW already on the general sports package in Houston almost all sports fan will continue to pay the bundled subscriber fee because they have no choice. That is what it boils down to. FSW will low ball the Astros now that Texas is signed on. They have no reason to overpay when they have guaranteed content filler.
This is a huge gamble for the Astros and Rockets. If the RSN fails, they are at the mercy of Fox. Fox is perfectly happy letting them try at this point. Even if the RSN succeeds it will be unlikely to be able to stand toe to toe with FSW for the foreseeable future. There is another problem with all of this. With the conversion from cable to digital and from cable providers to ISPs the RSN model may not be able to survive much longer. Without the middlemen of local cable providers RSN do not have the revenue potential that major affiliated networks will provide.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
My only point was that the FSN deal is a long term deal and it terminates in 2013 only if the Astros invoke the early termination option. So, if the Astros wanted to stay with FSN, they could do so. But the Astros apparently believe they can make more money entering into a deal with Comcast or other providers. My second point is that Comcast isn’t going to agree to make the payouts that the Astros want unless it believes that it can succeed in negotiating deals with all or most of the existing cable outlets. My guess is that this is a very profitable model for the Astros, but undoubtedly it is a risk. All of the additonal money paid to any of the sports networks, including FSSW, will eventually end up in higher rates paid by cable subscribers. The FSSW channel isn’t on the basic package of my cable service right now. Even if the new channel is added to the “sports package” I suspect that quite a few Austin subscribers already take that tier, because it is the only way to get the NFL channel and full college game coverage. I would cancel my cable subscription over the lack of Astros coverage, mostly because alternatives exist (two cable choices, Grande and TW, plus satellite choices). Not all areas of Austin have overlapping cable franchises, but where it does exist, I think it provides some pressure on competing cable providers.
My suggestions to Drayton
-Continue to rebuild. This means stocking the farm (paying draft picks and int’ signees) and not signing veterans to long term contracts.
-When you’re in it, you’re in it. This means any year you are in the mix at the deadline, you’re a buyer. Even 2011.
Get the minor league teams closer to Houston; it expands the brand. Corpus is a great place for the AA (or even AAA) team. I wouldn’t mind seeing them get New Orleans back as a AAA affiliate. I don’t know how realistic it is, but getting your lower level teams in places like Victoria, Sugarland, Katy, San Antonio, etc. would all help expand the Astros fanbase. If I were omnipotent, I would have the AAA team in San Antonio, AA in Corpus, A+ in Victoria, and a A/A/Rk team in Katy.
The other suggestions you made are probably better suited for Ed Wade. Mine for Wade:
-Continue to rebuild. Give Castro and Wallace another full season of everyday play before you make a move to replace/demote them.
-Add a SS. Whether via trade, Rule 5, or Free Agency, this is the most glaring hole in the roster.
-Take a chance on a starting pitcher without committing much $.
-Add a power bat without committing much $.
-It’s all about value.
-If you’re in contention at the deadline, buy.
Unfortunately, getting every minor league team is not feasable. Lower level teams travel by bus. Therefore, teams within a league have to be in the same area. There are no leagues other than the Texas and PCL that are close. Having teams in Victoria and Katy would require flights. Flights that other organizations would be unwilling to pay to visit for a 3 or 4 game sets. Especially Victoria, as it would require a flight to Houston and then a connecting flight to Victoria, which isn’t cheap.

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