Breaking down the Myers deal: Its impact on the Astros rotation
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 8, 2010 11:03 PM CST
in Stat Geeky
Email
PrintI'll be honest, I'm an unabashed fan of this deal. I was from the moment it started being rumored on Twitter, and I still am even after seeing the proposed contract of one year, $5 million with an option for 2011 (I assume club, or at least if it's a player option it's dependent on a performance goal). For a signing that took place on January 8th that adds depth to one of resource the Astros were sorely in need of—pitching—I don't know if we can ask for more; aside from shaving a million or so off the contract.
From the media reports, it's clear that Myers is going to be a starter. What remains to be seen is who that bumps from the rotation. Brian McTaggart phrased it as such:
Granted, this could leave one of our two young guns without a rotation spot, but I'm not so sure that's the conclusion to be reached. Just going off my memory of all the quotes that have come from Brad Mills and Ed Wade, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino have both been mentioned numerous times as players with a lot of promise, players to get excited about for the immediate future. Paulino has been highlighted for all the extra work that he's been putting in this offseason, too. I don't think both of them would get all of that praise only to be marginalized to the bullpen for Myers.
I think this is especially true when you consider that all of Ed Wades moves seem to be building to a breakout campaign for the Astros in 2012. Why would he want to stunt the development of two pitchers who can be rotation stalwarts in 2012 by limiting their experience and robbing them of a year of development?
That's just my gut feeling on it, though.
Suspending the debate around who gets bumped from the rotation, the deal is a solid one. It's not something that will have the blogosphere bubbling with praise for Ed Wade, but it's not one that will draw the ire that the Brandon Lyon deal did, either.
Myers, due to be 30, is predicted to toss 171 IP by Bill James and 126 IP by CHONE. The systems see respective ERA's of 4.37 and 4.79, with James' projection being buoyed by a 4.59 FIP and CHONE's FIP still needing to be amended for the trade. Both systems see above 3 K:BB's and above 7 K/9's. For someone that is likely to end up being a number four or five starter, that's not bad if you just take the average.
The real story for Myers will be what MMP does for his HR/FB. Last year, Myers posted an appalling 23.4%, but has a career average of just above 15%. Taking a look at his 2009 and 2008 seasons via hitracker, I think Myer's is definitely going to see a few more HR balls stay in the park. Not the ones that were pulled to right, but certainly some of the fly balls to CF and RF. Myer's xFIP, which is regressed to league average HR rates, in 2008 was 3.87 and in 2009 was 4.32. Assuming just somewhere in the middle—or even the 4.32 mark from 2009—over 140-150 IP and Myers is quite the pitcher. Using the WAR projection tool we played with last season, that would make him a 1.8 WAR pitcher.
Assuming (or I guess in reality, hoping) that Brian Moehler is the odd man out of the rotation, then that's an upgrade in our starting rotation of about 1.1 WAR. Moehler's projection there is based on a 160 IP and 5.00 ERA—generous. With that, Myer's contract essentially pays for itself in performance. Ed Wade wins; we win, too.
I think that's how it goes. Like I said, I have a feeling that Ed Wade, Brad Mills, and Brad Arnsberg are dedicated to developing a rotation that has a future, not catering to Brian Moehler's veteraniess. With this move, I think it gives the Astros the strongest starting rotation they've had since 2006. Not only that, but Moehler gets to move back into the role that he's made for, long-reilef/mop-up/spot starter. It's a win-win-win.
**Caveat that I don't feel like working in** I just asked Will Carroll for his gut feeling on Myers' health in 2010 and I got this:
Worried more about that late season [change] in mechanics than hip.
Make of it what you will.
24 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Tag’s blog post also mentioned Norris wouldn’t be bumped since he has so much promise. With Myers slotted into the third spot, that means Paulino and Moehler would fight it out for the last spot, according to McTaggart.
The decision could be pretty tricky, since Paulino is out of options (I’m pretty sure). He made his ML debut in 2007, was hurt in 2008 but still used an option and then had his third option used up last season. Maybe I’m wrong (please correct me), but that means he would have to clear waivers if he didn’t make the team out of spring training.
I think 11 guys are close to locks to making the Opening Day roster: Oswalt, Wandy, Myers, Norris, Moehler, Paulino, Arias, Fulchino, Lyon, Lindstrom and a lefty (Byrdak/Wright). That leaves one spot for Gervacio, Sampson, Gustavo Chacin, Gary Majewski, Josh Banks, Casey Daigle, Yorman Bazardo, Wilton Lopez and Polin Trinidad. Daigle only makes it if Byrdak and Wright don’t, while I’m sure Chacin, Trinidad and Bazardo are viewed more as starters than bullpen guys.
I could definitely see a situation where the Astros don’t keep both Moehler and Paulino. If they don’t see enough from either, they have enough other relivers, including Sampson, who could be more valuable. A trade in March isn’t out of the question either.
Well, I’ve stated my views that this signing is OK as long as it doesn’t force Paulino out of the rotation. Richard Justice seems to think that Paulino will push Moehler to a swing man role because the Astros like Paulino’s stuff and will give Felipe every chance to succeed. To tell you the truth, I doubt that either Justice or McTaggert know what is likely to happen…they are just guessing like the rest of us. I wouldn’t put a trade of Paulino or Moehler out of the question (that thought came to my mind too), but I think it’s difficult to get much value for Moehler (given his salary) and it would definitely be selling low on Paulino (and I’m sure there are some sabermetric oriented teams which would love to get in on that action).
Just posted my thoughts in the previous post from my perspective here in Philadelphia. My caveats:
1- Myers has always seemed like he should be better that he has.
2- He does little to help himself, whether it be PR issues, conditioning, “clubhouse presence,” whatever.
3- My hunch is the hip and the change in mechanics are one and the same. If there’s not much change in velocity between the fastball and his offspeed stuff, watch out.
4- I worry about the small ballparks in the NL Central and its featured power hitters. They are likely to pound Myers into dust. Two basket shots in the second inning at Wrigley and he can start to blow his stack.
All that said, you’ve noted the upside here, and despite the wisecracks on the thirtysomething overpriced crony reliever Ed Wade has rotsa rotsa love for, the build to 2012 play is the blue sky scenario here that could work out well for you. I just wouldn’t bet my kids’ tuition money on it. And I think you could have had similar or better results for less money from other, healthier guys (like Chan Ho Park, for one).
Aaaaaannnnnndddddddd apparently I spoke to soon
Worst offseason thus far? Looking at what Ed Wade has done, I would have to say the Astros. http://sbnation.com/e/1006573
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 9, 2010 2:22 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I’m not saying it’s the best offseason or anything, but I feel like Ed Wade has played the hand he was given pretty decently. Yeah, Wade spent $19.3M on those six guys, but he had a lot of holes to fill this offseason (and not a lot of near-MLB farm depth to draw on)…that $19.3M had to stretch and cover a risk/reward starting pitcher with upside, 8th and 9th inning, third base, and backup spots for infield and outfield, and a pitcher that you know has handled the swingman role with class (Moehler). And that still doesn’t cover potential weak links at SS and Catcher.
Some folks are critical of the “veteran element”, but we’re going to be leaning heavily on some relatively inexperienced guys next year (Manzella, Towles, Norris, Paulino, Gervacio and possibly guys like Castro, Polin Trinidad, and Chia Jen-Lo), and I’m a believer in having good mentor-type veterans like Blum and Moehler to help the young guys deal with the ups-and-downs of the big leagues.
Another criticism I often see is that the Astros should have waited until the end of the offseason to get better players cheaper. But that’s a lot like playing the game of chicken, and the guy you want might not be there when Feb. rolls around…you run the risk of having to start Chris Johnson-types if you don’t have much in the way of minors depth.
Setting aside the article evaluation of future WAR value based only on CHONE, which I probably wouldn’t agree with in all respects, the whole conclusion is based on an apparent change in the value of a win based on this off-season’s results. Based on win values developed from previous seasons, Fangraphs’ WAR pegs a win value at just above $4.5 million. Based on the article’s calculation, that is pretty much the same as what Wade has paid for free agents this off season. But the article’s conclusion that Wade has had the worst offseason possible is based on a perception that the value of a win has declined to $3.5 million based on signings so far (without any reference to where this calculation came from, by the way). I agree that Wade hasn’t necessarily exploited the weakness the market this year (in fact, I said that in an article). But I have a problem saying he has performed the worst simply because he didn’t anticipate the decline in salaries. If that is the standard, then a bunch of bloggers need to re-write their articles about “good” signings, since those conclusions were based on $4.5 million rather than 3.5 million.
I wrote that post, and while I'll acknowledge that it wasn't the best writing
I still don’t think that you can argue that Wade has had a particularly productive offseason. My stance was likely harder than it appropriately should have been, but I should note that I didn’t say that he absolutely had the worst offseason thus far, but merely that it was in the argument.
This signing and the Feliz signing were certainly reasonable moves, they each have some upside, they’re one-year deals, and they fill holes, but the rest of the signings were clearly poor uses of resources, and overall, Wade and company really haven’t pushed Houston all that closer to contention.
And frankly, as I acknowledged in an added authors note on that piece, blame may more appropriately be given to Drayton McLane, rather than Wade. I’ll swallow my pride and acknowledge that the Wade piece was far from my best work, and something that I should have reflected on more before publishing. But on the whole, I still don’t really like what Wade has done this offseason.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 10, 2010 2:47 PM CST up reply actions
Really though
the moves that I can’t get over are the Lyon/Moehler/Blum-type moves. Lyon isn’t anything special and Houston probably could’ve landed Kevin Gregg or Octavio Dotel, relievers of a similar quality, on one-year deals. I would’ve been shocked if Moehler got $3M through free agency.
And Geoff Blum? In the past seven seasons, he’s posted a .296 OBP. I’m sorry, but they would’ve been better off signing someone like Ruben Gotay for that price. Blum’s value lies in his solid glove, and they already addressed 3B defense with the Feliz signing.
Not to mention that Tommy Manzella is your projected everyday shortstop, and it remains to be seen whether he is ready to be much better than a replacement level player there.
Like I said, my stance was too strong, and I’m honestly happy to see that commenters are fully prepared to call me out on it. I just still don’t think that Houston has had a good offseason.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 10, 2010 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
I agree completely
I think everyone here has taken a shot at the Moehler/Blum/Lyon signing.
Those aside, with $20 million and an roster full of holes, who exactly was Ed Wade going to sign? Moehler and Blum—bad contracts. Lyon—not a good contract, not a miserable one either. Myers—some risk, but that’s the kind of move Ed Wade is kind of forced to take to inject some upside. Feliz—meh.
This is an offseason full of meh’s. Not an offseason full of the worst possible moves. And that’s what we’ve been pointing out; both on our own here, and over at BtB.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 10, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
Wade should have waited on the Blum signing. In isolation the Blum signing isn’t bad, because it’s only $1 million, and he is useful as a PH against LHP and as a platoon player at 3d base. But that was before Feliz was signed. And at this point, Blum takes up a roster space which could be filled with someone better. So, I’m with you there. Some of us here were pulling for a Gotay signing, by the way.
I agree that Moehler was paid too much. However, I think there was some kind of vesting option for Moehler, and it’s possible that Wade didn’t have much choice, given the contract. But, other than that, I can’t defend the Moehler signing. Again, this contract isn’t terrible, because Moehler isn’t without some value (he had a 4.75 FIP, and was worth $3.7 million last year, according to Fangraphs). But I’m concerned that he will squeeze someone like Paulino out of the rotation after the Myers signing. So, probably his money could have been better spent elsewhere.
I’m OK with the Lyon signing. Lyon isn’t a great reliever, but he is well above average. He has a 122 ERA+ over his career (which is long enough to provide a decent sample). He is better than some relievers who have signed as closers for more money (like Rodney, who by almost all measures is a worse pitcher than Lyon…for instance, ZIPS projects Lyon at something like 110 ERA+ and Rodney at something like 98 ERA+). Lindstrom has the stuff to be a closer, but given his previous season, he is a gamble. I think Wade wanted a reliable relief pitcher who has experience in both the closer and set up role, so that he can either set up Lindstrom or become a safety net at closer. The contract with Lyon is longer than I would like, but Wade got into a bidding war with the Phillies for Lyon, and Wade had to add an extra year. FWIW, a number of Tigers’ fans feel like Lyons’ good ERA last year was caused by a legitimate improvement, adding a cutter to his repertoire. We’ll see, I suppose.
Manzella is a concern. If the Astros had a better overall offense, I would feel better about Manzella in the lineup. However, Manzella is plus-defensive shortstop. I will give credit to Wade for having a plan to improve the Astros infield defense, with Feliz and Manzella on the left side. However, I’m afraid that Manzella will hit so poorly that he ends up back in Round Rock.
Did Wade have a great off-season? In an absolute sense, no. But a lot of that is McLane’s fault, particularly given the directive to cut the payroll by $10 million. Wade is hemmed in by three high dollar no trade clause contracts which he had no control over.
OIGM,* and a general comment
*That stands for: Owner-Independent General Managing skills——like FIP, but quantifying it would be a bitch, as all these interesting posts here (and at BtB) have made clear. I’ve really enjoyed following the discussion.
The comment above about the timing of the Blum signing reminds me that Wade appears to be tone-deaf in a sense/at times when it comes to timing. His timing (and decision-making) on Valverde and Hawkins was also garbled, as some of you pointed out last month—which one to offer arbitration to, when, etc., was not especially thought through. Unless Drayton was really breathing down his neck (which is certainly possible), this seems like a good anecdotal measure of his OIGM;-), and suggests that working through the nitty-gritty tactical nuances of timing on the stages of personnel moves as they unfold is not his forte. As AstroAndy notes, though, you can’t always just wait things out, either, because you don’t know how things will be different in the marketplace two-three-six weeks down the road. Two in the hand is worth three in the bush, etc. The owner, with his grocer’s background, definitely seems to have this predilection as well (early bird gets the worm, blah, blah, blah), so that doesn’t always help.
But even given the reality of all those moving variables unfolding over time, which are easy for fans and bloggers to disregard a bit blithely in reaching conclusions (i.e., he overpaid a lot, or somewhat, or not at all, etc.), other GMs than Wade definitely seem to have a better feel for timing on personnel processes vis-à-vis the marketplace.
I thought in general all this discussion was enlightening, insofar as it’s reminded me that it’s the local FANS who know the landscape well enough to contextualize things like attendance patterns/where the competition is right now for fan dollars in the team’s area, and thinking through little things like the need for veteran mentorship on a roster that will have more youngsters on it than has been the case in some time, etc. It’s not just a paper exercise of looking at salaries and estimating whether one has overpaid per se—that’s a bit like drive-by analysis, even if overpaying is obviously not a good thing. Applying sabr-tools to scan a roster of salaries certainly tells you something, because the tools available are so damn interesting and imaginative, but in the end it’s just one relatively uncontextualized reading that can only be threshed out by others who are sabr-savvy fans of the team and knowledgeable about the region and fan base of the team. (There’s History involved, not just Science.) The outside perspectives certainly help objectively validate what the sabr-locals are talking about, while the sabr-locals provide some nuance and context to flesh the picture out…which takes us closer to ALL the variables, good and bad, that a GM has to wrestle with in a real-world setting—not just the ledger sheet—there’s not just salary, but also revenue flows to consider (butts in seats), in a weak division (pre-Holliday and pre-Chapman signings). For all his trenchant analysis and patience, I’d like to think Satchel P. comes away now with at least a more nuanced understanding of the Astros’ particular brand of mid-market weirdness (and our [at times] neuroses in coping with it;-).
It’s hard for us to be completely objective, but then a completely objective picture would miss some important factors as well. This is why I enjoyed the discussion.
Wade bringing in Heck and convincing McLane of the sheer folly of NOT signing draft picks (‘07) is very significant, despite whatever other shortcomings he may have. If and when the Astros emerge from their current doldrums, Wade’s efforts to gear the farm system back up will be something we will all point to as an important point in the turn-around (even though it’s staggering that it ever got that bad in the first place, prior to his watch).
Having said all this, I sure miss Hunsicker, and sure hope McLane is getting purchase offers worth his serious consideration.
Good observations, as usual.
As I’ve said before, Wade seems to be good at some things (like managing player development) but not so good at others (and maybe timing falls in that category). Wade seems to approach his off-season in a methodical way; it seems like he writes his tasks down in a particular order and he tries to methodically cross them off his list.
Predicting whether to wait as long as possible for a free agent signing is a dicey proposition. After letting Alou go, Hunsicker waited and ended up with Jeff Kent falling in his lap. It could have been luck. But in 2005, after the Beltran negotiations fell through, Pupura felt like he could wait to get a bargain outfielder. The Kent signing probably was in his mind. But the market didn’t work out that way, and he was empty handed. Maybe that experience made Pupura believe he needed to be the “early bird” with his (disastrous) signings in the 2006/7 off-season.
Absolutely
I’ll readily admit that I didn’t even remotely weigh the non-baseball factors properly, especially in a place like Houston where those factors are so prevalent.
But I just seem to wonder, and this isn’t derogatory in any way, if Houston fans are seemingly happy because Wade isn’t doing anything particularly wrong, and because the team was so poorly managed for so long, that’s a significant upgrade.
Getting ownership to spend even decent money on the draft, while the MLB payroll is near $100M? Developing a real farm system? Not giving NTC’s to everyone? Not trading every impact prospect they have for veteran stopgaps?
It just seems like Wade is the guy that’s finally ended the horrid management in Houston, but he hasn’t starting anything that’s particularly good. Certainly, the stance I took in my BtB post was excessive and even a tad unfair. I just have a hard time really praising Wade for all that much.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 11, 2010 10:44 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think you pretty much nailed it here
But I think Wade had done an excellent job of bringing in Heck and getting the farm system back on track, while also making some pretty savvy moves (Wolf [which he botched by not offering arb to], Hawkins [which he again botched by not offering arb to]). In terms of the arbitration decisions which drive us nuts, I think that definitely comes down to Drayton’s call, because he hates arb, but a failing for Wade for not convincing Drayton using cost/benefit analysis with risk hedging.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 11, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
Some of his signings and even trades are questionable, but that’s only one part of being a GM. I’d evenargue that a lot of his trades that initially were criticized actually turned out pretty well Wolf, Hawkins, Bourn.
Their has been a huge step forward as far as the farm system goes, obviously it hasn’t yet reflected in organizational rankings but their is reason for optimism. The other thing is his waiver and rule 5 selections, which he has done a tremendous job of finding value in. Wright(Rule 5), Arias, Fulchino, have all been valuable players picked off the discard pile.
I wouldn’t say a lot of us are content with where the organization is currently, but we understand the situation. A majority of the payroll is tied up in contracts that were established before Wade arrived, and his signings while not great will allow for flexibility in the future when those contracts come off the books. That’s when we’ll find out what Wade really can do. We don’t believe he’s the best GM in baseball and I think a lot of us would prefer someone more sabr minded, but with what he’s done so far a lot of us don’t think he’s the worst either.
Personally I don’t mind that Wade has been called the worst GM or criticized for his moves. He’s shown a trend of proving a lot of critics wrong, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that trend continues.
by Timothy De Block on Jan 12, 2010 8:49 AM CST up reply actions
We talk about sample size on players, but usually don’t talk about sample size on trades. That’s one reason I try to be somewhat reserved on reaching conclusions about GMs’ ability based on trading results. Every GM—even the best—will have bad trades. It happens; just like every organization will have some prospects who don’t succeed. Obviously, really big, blockbuster type trades are something worth looking at, because the GM thought it was worth making a big gamble.
Myself included...crap
If that is the standard, then a bunch of bloggers need to re-write their articles about "good" signings, since those conclusions were based on $4.5 million rather than 3.5 million.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Add ZIPS projection...
The ZIPS projection for Myers is here.
4.56 ERA and 98 ERA+ This based on playing in Philly. His ERA will decline somewhat if it is changed to MMP.
I don't think that you can realistically expect that much change
in Myers’ HR/FB ratio. Moving to Minute Maid Park definitely will help him on some level, but Myers has always given up a lot of home runs, his HR/FB was only slightly higher at home than on the road.
He’ll probably have a HR/FB closer to his 15.5% career mark, but for me, the major concern would be his ability to miss bats. He’s always been a guy that’s given up hard contact, he’s routinely given up high HR/FB and LD% marks, but he was usually able to make up for that with above average contact rates. In the past two seasons, that number has risen, so a big question is how much of that is related to his health issues.
If Myers can stay healthy, it’s highly likely that this ends up being a bargain for Houston, assuming that Myers can return to his previous level. But given the injury issues and his home run happy ways, giving Myers $5M seems like the high point of what he could’ve possibly have gotten, considering what guys like Harden and Penny got.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
I think $5 million may be a bit high for a pitcher coming off of a significant injury season, though not outrageously so.
Yeah, it's not outrageous
But for a guy who has posted a 4.56 ERA over the past three seasons when he’s been healthy and has a track record of issues with the long ball, it seems like they could do better.
A big part of this is whether Myers or Moehler takes a rotation spot away from Paulino or Norris, as is noted in this post. Because if this team is looking towards the future, as this blog has implied, then taking starts away from those two guys would seem to be going against that vision. Given how well both Paulino and Norris pitched in their stints, each had a similar issue to Myers in that they gave up a lot of home runs, it seems that neither of them belongs anywhere but Houston’s rotation.
First it was Paige, now it's Price.
You can find me at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
by Satchel Price on Jan 10, 2010 3:05 PM CST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Crawfish Boxes
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
3 game series vs Rockies @ Minute Maid Park
|
Colorado Rockies
Friday, Apr 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT |
||
| Sat 04/07 | 6:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 04/08 | 1:05 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 6:05 PM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
