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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Astros Sign Brett Myers

The Astros and GM Ed Wade weren't content to just wait out the January doldrums. They instead reached an agreement this afternoon with free agent pitcher Brett Myers, pending a physical. That's no small hurdle, given Myers recent injury history*, but apparently a team can fail or pass anyone it wants on physicals. It's mainly whether the team's comfortable with the risk.

That being said, here's some insta-analysis on Myers. If the Astros view him as the last link for the starting rotation, this move is at least defensible. Myers pitched just 18 games last season, 10 of which were starts while posting an ERA+ of 88. His FIP was terrible at 6.32 but his xFIP of 4.32 was decent. Myers will turn 30 in August, so he's still young(er than some Astros players), but has topped 100 innings only once in the past three seasons. His strikeout rate has steadily dropped, from 8.59 in 2006 to 6.37 last season. Of all his peripherals, that's the one that worries me the most. Myers was always a strikeout pitcher. If he can't get those, will he still be as effective.

Obviously, transitioning from Citizen's Bank Ballpark to Minute Maid will help his stats some, but his infield defense may be worse than in Philly. It's basically a tossup on how much help his defense will add or take away, though he shouldn't give up quite as many home runs. Bill James and CHONE project him as giving up 1.43 HR/9, which is just a tick above his career average of 1.32. That is probably in large part due to his HR/9 rate rising up to 2.29 in 2009 while his HR per FB rate was up over 10 points to 23.4% from his 2008 total and almost as much from his career rate of 15.5%.

The thing I don't like about this move is it probably bumps either Bud Norris or Felipe Paulino out of the rotation. Assuming he's healthy, Myers could be a good back-of-the-rotation starter, eating up some innings while providing league-average performance. The obvious choice to bump from the rotation would be Moehler, who is older, has pitched relief before and may not be able to sustain the marginal success he had last season.

However, in the past, Wade and Cooper gave more chances to veterans than to their own young players. Look no further than the decision to keep Jason Smith on the roster last spring over a guy like Edwin Maysonet. While Cooper is no longer the manager, Brad Mills is going to have to prove to me this spring that Norris and Paulino will be in the rotation before I get my hopes up about Moehler not throwing every five days.

Depending on the money and the length of the deal, this is a pretty good deal. I just hope the Astros don't mess up the consequences.

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I wonder what the deal is worth and for how long?

I didn’t think ol’ Fast Eddie had much left to spend.

Miss-placed Houstonian living and going to school in the wilderness of Wyoming. Fresno St. 28 - Wyoming 35 (2 OT)!!! Hands down best game I have ever been to.

by BigNate7 on Jan 8, 2010 5:07 PM CST reply actions  

Brett Myers

Should be a servicable pitcher for you guys….. If he gets over the Hip problem he had last year, he should really help your team. Just make sure his wife stays home and not in the Houston Nite life. She likes to party.

by Philly fanDoc on Jan 8, 2010 5:15 PM CST reply actions  

Thank goodness!

I was worried that we would fail to sign anyone for the rotation. If he can stay healthy, he looks like a steal. I just hope they bump Moehler to long relief insted of Paulino.

"So I'm ugly. I never saw anyone hit with his face." -Yogi Berra

by hunterpencefan on Jan 8, 2010 6:30 PM CST reply actions  

I will be pissed if this ends up pushing either Norris or Paulino out of the rotation (particularly Paulino, since I think he has a higher ceiling and is out of options). I’m fine with the move if Moehler and Myers compete for the No. 5 rotation slot. Both guys have extensive bullpen experience and can move into a relief role if they lose the starter role. I consider Paulino to be a strong break out candidate this season, based on his peripherals and bad luck last year; it would be beyond ridiculous if he is put on waivers in spring training (like Nieve last year).

by clack on Jan 8, 2010 6:42 PM CST reply actions  

I'm with you

The thing that worries me is Myers is very particular about what role he likes to play on the pitching staff and will voice his opinion if he’s not pleased.

by Timothy De Block on Jan 8, 2010 8:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Earlier in the off-season, Myers said he didn’t care if he was signed as a reliever or starter. Of course, that was before he was signed, and if he was promised a rotation position, he may have a different reaction if he gets moved to the bullpen like Ortiz was.

by clack on Jan 8, 2010 8:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed 100% clack. And I’m worried that this will be the case and Paulino will be robbed of his chance.

by OremLK on Jan 9, 2010 12:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Myers in the clubhouse.

I forgot to mention that it will be interesting to see how Myers fits in the clubhouse. He is volatile and ornery. He isn’t afraid to put the media in their place. He also isn’t afraid to take on a teammate. His persona is quite different from the general laid back approach of most Astros. That could be a bad influence (shades of Chacon) or it could add some needed fire to the team.

by clack on Jan 8, 2010 6:45 PM CST reply actions  

I guess I should of read a little farther down =P

by Timothy De Block on Jan 8, 2010 8:02 PM CST up reply actions  

$5 million, 1 year contract.

At least that is what this article says.

That strikes me as a tad bit high, given the injury risk factor with Myers (he hasn’t pitched more than 100 innnings in any of the past three years). But I don’t think it is “stretching the budget” as McTaggert says. I had figured that Wade had $5 – $6 million left to spend.

by clack on Jan 8, 2010 7:25 PM CST reply actions  

I wonder

If this is to make the team more attractive =X

by Timothy De Block on Jan 8, 2010 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

In comparison to the Lyon deal

It’s not a bit high in the least.. lol

by robolundgren on Jan 9, 2010 1:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Arnsberg

Has his reclamation project =)

by Timothy De Block on Jan 8, 2010 8:00 PM CST reply actions  

Any guesses as to who is getting kicked off the 40-man roster?

by AstroAndy on Jan 8, 2010 9:31 PM CST reply actions  

Bourgeois? Sutil?

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Jan 8, 2010 9:38 PM CST up reply actions  

my guess is that it’ll be an infielder….if you’ve got matsui, manzella, and feliz as the front-line starters, it sort of makes at least one of the following guys seem redundant: Blum, Kepp, Maysonet, Chris Johnson, Sutil, Vallejo. Not a lot of shortstop help in there if Manzella can’t keep up…wouldn’t be surprised to see the roster shuffled a bit to find someone who can back up SS.

I think Bourgeois is a candidate to fill in the final outfield slot (but I think we’re still in the market for someone who can come off the bench and hit RHP well).

by AstroAndy on Jan 8, 2010 10:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I echo your concerns, David, about the strikeout rate. I don’t have the skills to play around with Pitchf/x, but the average fastball velocities over at fangraphs show the following:

2005: 91.4 mph
2006: 91.4 mph
2007: 92.1 mph
2008: 90.1 mph
2009: 89.3 mph

That’s quite a decline from his prime years in 2005-2007. Hope Arnsberg can help him find a bit of velocity.

by AstroAndy on Jan 8, 2010 10:20 PM CST reply actions  

Presumably, the loss of velocity in 2009 is the result of the hip surgery and a related muscle pull. That a hip injury would cause a loss of velocity make a lot of sense ( Mark Mulder had a continued loss of velocity from his more serious hip injury—I think it was so bad that he had to get a joint replacement). The good news is that it isn’t an arm injury. I suppose the key question is whether there will be continued recovery from the surgery this season which would allow him to throw like he did previously.

by clack on Jan 9, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Enjoy the ride, Astros fans

Myers was always an enigma here in Philadelphia, but bottom line is: This is not a bright man, for many, many reasons, and his career self-management is just splattered with poor, dumb choices, not least of which is his switch to the bullpen, where he was admittedly successful, but probably to his long-term detriment. Still, through 2007 he had genuine stretches of dominance, which makes the first part of this all the more aggravating. In short: a ten-cent head.

This signing is yet another example of questionable judgment. Once Amaro cut him loose, in no uncertain terms and mostly because of what I think was his personality, the best he could do was a 1-year deal like this, and hope that a good year he could flip into an extension. But I think the NL Central is just the worst place for him. We bristle that CBP’s reputation as a bandbox is a bit overblown, but the other aspect of this is that this FB pitcher now will see more of Cincinnati, Chicago, and St. Louis. I thought the NL West or AL West would have been a better spot for his re-invention.

All that said, I’m looking forward to a matchup next summer, as this FB righty vs the Phillies’ lineup should result in a good night for us. But the burnt-orange uniform will likely have an eerie power to hypnotize, as usual. But probably not so much against the big boppers of your division the rest of the season. So, I’d say an ok signing, typically Wade-like (crony thirtysomething reliever for about 50% more than he’s probably worth), it will have an upside until about the all-star game, methinks. Unless you folks feel there is a real value in giving the high prospects noted above more minor league seasoning, Chan Ho Park could have been had for cheaper and would have netted about the same results.

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 8, 2010 11:25 PM CST reply actions  

Astros are taking a lot of gambles

with their moves this offseason.

Lyon might or might not be as lucky, Lindstrom might or might not improve, Feliz might or might not hit, Kaz might or might not stay healthy and produce 08ish numbers, Myers might or might not…suck.

Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

by jonthefon on Jan 9, 2010 2:43 AM CST reply actions  

Not to mention Towles, Manzella, Norris, Paulino, (maybe) Castro. This season could be a disaster of epic proportions, true, but there’s enough upside in this group that it could also be a surprising success. My money is still on 70 wins, but we’ll see.

by OremLK on Jan 9, 2010 3:14 AM CST up reply actions  

brett the baby

wah
 I’m back with eddie now so leave me alone
he knew the phillies did’nt want his injury prone azze anymore
 good luck with the stros!

by dirkhead on Jan 11, 2010 3:04 PM CST reply actions  

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