The Astros sign Josh Banks (the post where you realize: what has my fan-life come to?)
The plus side is that Josh Banks is a knuckleballer, so that's at least cool. The non-plus side is that he owns a career xFIP of 5.25. Also added to the non-plus side is that he had an obscene FIP of 6.41 last year. However, back on the plus side of the ledger, we can add to it that this is a minor-league deal. Of course then on the other side of the ledger we have to be honest and ask the question, has signing a Padres pitcher ever worked out well for the Astros? Has it? Not so much. (you have to click both separately to truly get it).
To recap visually:
Of course, it's always possible just to not worry about it because it is, in fact, a minor league deal. I don't want the Josh Bank signing itself to be seen as the motivation for this piece. The fact of the matter is, this piece has been brewing in the back my mind for sometime. To catch up on the thought process/inspiration for this here's a list of other people's work that inspired me:
- Joe Posnanski's long, winding, and incredible recap of the Royal's decade.
- Matt Klaassen asking the question, is the NL worse because the GM's are?
- Clack's reaction/analysis of Dave Cameron's piece on the right-ward shift of demand in the free agent market.
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As I said in my comments on Josh Banks, I see two possible good points:
(1) Arnsberg was his pitching coach at one time, and presumably Arnsberg had reason to point him out; and (2) in very small sample sizes, Banks has performed well as a relief pitcher in the majors (as opposed to starting, which was his more frequent role); since failed starting pitchers are a good place to look for pitchers who can develop into good relievers, maybe we will see another good result from Wade’s dumpter diving. This is one area in which Wade excels.
How many relievers excel with a K/9 rate of 4.2? Or are you positing that his strikeout numbers will rise by coming out of the bullpen?
by David Coleman on Jan 5, 2010 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
The sample for his career major league appearances is relatively small. The body of his work at the minor league level is more extensive and would indicate he could be a decent pitcher. He has good K/BB ratios in the minors. For instance, in 2009, in 128 innings in the PCL, his K/9 is 6.68 and his BB/9 is 2.53, with a FIP of 3.58. In 2008, between Portland and Syracuse (both AAA), his K/9 is 6.38 and his BB/9 is 2.44. I think it is possible that his K/BB ratio at the major league level might improve if he is put in the right situation, which could be middle relief work. He has been used primarily as a starter at the ML level and (based on OPS-against) he seemed to have trouble on his second and third time through the order. His ML ERA is below 2 for relief appearances; this may not mean anything, due to sample size, but his change of speed style may be something that works in middle relief. I’m not suggesting that he can be late inning reliever, but middle and long relief may be something he can do.
as a side note...
knuckleballers are the type of pitchers who aren’t covered by DIPS theory. That is to say, studies indicate DIPS doesn’t work on knuckleball pitchers, who have more control over balls in play. In essence, a good knuckleball pitcher can live off of weak contact more than Ks.
Now this may not mean much for Banks, since he only throws the knuckler, say, 10 -15% of the time. But I point it out just as a conversation topic.
Randy Wolf (from San Diego)
was a great boost the time he was with the Astros
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jan 5, 2010 5:29 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
I knew that would come up
It took me awhile to realize it would—selective memory at the time—though. To that end, I’ll say 2/3 in the last three years.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 5, 2010 11:10 PM CST up reply actions
royals-stros
The going-through-the-motions, treading-water “limbo” you describe is potentially scary, for sure. After reading Posnanski’s opus-post, the sobering thing to remember is that both Baird and Moore had better reps in the game prior to coming to KC than did Wade when he came to Houston (i.e., prior to the Phillies’ World Series triumph). Something about the institutional situation in KC seemed to cloud the judgment of both men after a while, and by a certain point, both seemed to be grasping at straws, just to “do something,” but with little discernible, overarching strategy in mind or strategic sense of purpose. It’s like a “nature vs. nurture” argument, and Posnanski seems to be saying that the highly regarded “nature” of Baird and Moore as “baseball men” got completely enervated by the “nurture” of their work environment. It brings to mind ideas like “institutional memory” and how new people cycle in, but the results end up the same regardless of how qualified the new people may be.
Another parallel is that Glass, like McLane, is a mercantile guy, with that same literal-minded, short-sighted “bottom-line” thinking that focuses more on the ledger sheet than on some overall strategic vision that could be designed to enhance the ledger sheet as a positive by-product or outcome if everything’s done right.
Ain’t good, especially if Wade can’t even talk/persuade/cajole McLane into letting him articulate a vision that we could at least BEGIN to work toward now (due to the current opportunities in the marketplace), in advance of the better situations of 2011-12, etc.
OTOH……we are not quite in the chronic financial straits of a smalll-market KC, and the budget here will truly get better once some of the current contracts slide off the books. Perhaps Wade believes that the bolder he tries to be, the more that will encourage McLane to meddle, and for the next year or two, he wants McLane not to get his juices going on some further free-agent boondoggles. If his going-through-the-motions tinkering influences McLane to lay back the next two years (sort of like behavior-modification therapy;-), then he will have a chance to succeed, as the budget gets less stifling and talent from the farm system starts to move up (hopefully).
The wild card is the economy and attendance. If Drayton doesn’t sell, and he loses too much money, then he could be back off the wagon, despite Wade’s patient efforts to modify Drayton’s behavior gradually/slowly.
If he is serious about selling, though, it will behoove him not to go on payroll-swelling benders between now and when a new majority owner is found, right?
Then the final irony for Wade could be “The Philadelphia Story, Part II,” as a new principal owner replaces Wade before the latter has the chance to do the sort of real roster tinkering he’s patiently building towards in the medium term, as big contracts mercifully go away.
OTOH, if the talent in our system (such as it may be) eventually pans out in a KC sort of way (uggh), he wouldn’t be around to take all the blame for that.
It will be interesting to see, but I fear I may be imputing waay too much deep strategic thinking into Wade’s head. If so, a KC-like scenario might evolve, but I don’t think it will be as deep and long-lasting as KC’s for the reasons adduced above. (Unless the talent isn’t nearly as talented as we hope—then all bets are off.)
by va que va on Jan 7, 2010 3:03 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
That was like seeing my inner monologue spelled out in print
Only far more put together and with higher-brower references. Thank you.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 7, 2010 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
Ugghhh
higher-brow*
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 7, 2010 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
your welcomeme
I just took too days to think about it, and then editeded the hell out of it as I went.
Maybebe i nead to get a life;-))

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