A Pine Story, Indeed, for the 2010 Astros
Earlier this week, Bernardo Fallas made a post on his blog that previewed the strengths and weaknesses of the Astros' by position. From the starting rotation to the bullpen, our offense and even Brad Mills, Fallas does a good job giving us a rough assessment of the Astros heading into 2010.
Comparing this season's team to last, I have to believe that the team has been built much better. Last season there were a multitude of positions that were filled by players that served no purpose beyond being warm bodies with the ability to perform baseball oriented tasks.
On the mound, Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, and Brian Moehler made up 3/5 of our starting rotation. Remembering that the Astros had over $100 million in payroll obligations in 2009, it's almost egregious that a trio such as this were expected to pitch a majority of the innings for our club. Hell, Hampton and Ortiz pitched nary an inning in 2008, and Moehler is the definition of dependability in the average, won't break your heart but won't get you excited sort of way. At this point, Bobby Heck had one good draft under his belt, but Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton and Co. were still years away.
Fast forward a year, and gone are the retreads that couldn't help but fill Astros' fans with doubt. Brian Moehler is still around, but his rotation spot is less a sure thing than a long shot. Brett Myers, a proven commodity with a bit of an injury history himself has been signed to create some depth in this most important of areas. Jokes about Ed Wade's love of former Phillies aside, this was the move of the off-season that I think will tangibly and visibly help the team the most. If he can play up to his ability, this is the first time since 2006 that the Astros will have an actual number three starter rather than a just a starting pitcher who takes the ball the day after Wandy Rodriguez.
Unless you're the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays, there will be question marks making up a fairly sizeable portion of your roster. Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino are two such enigmas for the Astros. Each has terrific stuff, and each has drawn favorable comparisons with some of the best hurlers in the game. It's not so much that Ed Wade turned question marks into sure things, when comparing spring training 2009 to spring training 2010, but in Norris and Paulino, pitching coach Brad Arnsberg has the opportunity to refine what is raw and strengthen what is sound. Dewey Robinson had a couple of old dogs last season, and I don't need to finish the maxim for you to know we're standing on more solid ground today than a year ago.
The offense has been tweaked, and has lost is hit leader Miguel Tejada. Tommy Manzella is nearly a decade younger and can scoop 'em up but good at shortstop. Ditto Pedro Feliz at third base. One of the big reasons PECOTA has the Astros winning seven more games in 2010 than in 2009 is because of our defense. A full season with Manzella and Feliz, coupled with terrific outfield defense in center and right, and the Moneyball strategy of the new decade is certainly trending upwards for the Astros. Jason Castro's arrival would mean that only Carlos Lee (maybe Lance too) is a truly below average defender out of the non pitching defensive players.
That just leaves one major area neither Fallas and I touched on: the bench. Er, Fallas actually did state one line in his post that will likely be a harbinger of things to come in the immediate future for the Astros. When it comes to players outside of the starting lineup and rotation, Fallas opines:
They simply do not have players of comparable quality on the bench.
Such is the plight of a team whose history of drafting is well, bad. If you believe the research of Mr. Andrecheck, the dearth of young, cheap talent for the Astros is going to cost us a handful of wins starting in 2011.
For this season though, what I can offer is a snap shot comparison of the Astros' "Sixth Man" compared to the other teams which inhabit the NL Central. Our most talented bench player, in my estimation, is Jeff Keppinger. In his first season as an Astro, he set career highs in home runs and walks, and is projected to do much of the same this year. A slight dip in contact % led to more strikeouts and a lower batting average, but he should improve in this area as well based on his career numbers and trends.
While Kepp is good enough to make just about any team's 25 man Opening Day Roster, he isn't quite Sixth Man material for a good or even above average team. I did say he had a career year last season for home runs, but even then he only smacked a whopping seven. A look our divisional foes and their sixth men and we can start to see the talent deficit the Astros are facing put into focus.
In general, the NL Central lacks the talent of other divisions, and their benches are no exception. Xavier Nady, Julio Lugo, Joe Mather, Brandon Moss, Chris Dickerson, and Jody Gerut are the main men of our rivals' that primarily enter the lineup in spot start situations. All of these players are useful in their own right, however, just as Cory Sullivan, Geoff Blum, Edwin Maysonet and even Jason Michaels (or so Ed Wade says) are.
Bernardo Fallas is correct though. The Astros are still a top heavy major league organization, with more riding on the performances of Kaz Matsui, Brandon Lyon and Brett Myers than most teams would probably like. My point is this: despite the lack of bench talent and the unproven nature of the back-end of the rotation, the ceiling for this year's cast is certainly higher than last year. Talent is a funny thing. If you don't have it, you can only fool yourself into thinking that your team is capable of competing. With it, you can don't have to fool yourself at all- it's easy to see the possibilities. The depths of losing in 2010 may very well end up close to what we had to make due with in 2009, but the glass ceiling hoisted by Ortiz-Hampton is something altogether different, as the Astros enter an eternally hopeful Spring 2010.
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My main concern about the Astros this year is the offense. I think the pitching will be improved (in part due to defense), and if Paulino and Norris excel, the rotation could be quite good. However, the offense may be worse than 09 in terms of OBP, which could put the Astros at the bottom of the NL in OBP. At this point, the best hope for the offense is that Towles puts up numbers more in line with his minor league history and that Berkman and Pence make modest improvements in last year’s performance. The good thing about signing Feliz is that it put Blum and Keppinger as bench depth from both the left and right side. Both guys are pretty good in that role. Right now, I have my doubts that Maysonet makes the team…unless Manzella just bombs in the spring.
by clack on Jan 31, 2010 7:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think we've definitely improved
My gut feeling after the Myers signing was 77-85. Today I finally got around to doing some lazy, rough projections. I say lazy, because I was simply calculating the difference from last year’s production at each position with what I think we’ll get this year.
Here’s what I came up with (all numbers in Wins added/subtracted):
Win Changes in 2010
1B: +1.4
2B: +0.9
3B: +1.9
SS: +0.0
C: +1.0
LF: -0.4
CF: -0.5
RF: +0.5
Pinch hit: +0.3
SP1: 0.5
SP2: -0.5
SP3: +1.5
SP4: +1.25
SP5: +1.25
Bullpen: -0.3
I have Berkman, Oswalt, and Matsui bouncing back, but Wandy and Bourn regressing a little, and Lee continuing last year’s decline. Pence continues to improve and the pinch hitters are stronger with Blum on the bench and no more Erstad getting at-bats.
You might be surprised to see my projection for shortstop (no change)—remember that through some combination of bad luck and declining skills, Tejada’s defense was worth negative 1.39 wins last season. I’m projecting Manzella as an above average defensive shortstop, so he gains an awful lot of saved runs over 2009 to make up for his lack of offense—assuming he sticks on the roster.
I’m also projecting Feliz to be approximately a league average batter—I’m drinking the Kool-Aid a little about his numbers in MMP. He also gains over half a win of defense over the Blum/Keppinger platoon last year.
I’m also projecting a fairly significant offensive upgrade at catcher, whether it comes from Towles, Castro, or both.
Finally, the rotation’s projections are very, very rough because our starting rotation in 2009 was such a mess, it made it very difficult to determine what value we actually got out of each rotation spot. My general thinking is 4.00 ERA/190 IP for Myers and 4.50 ERA/160 IP for Norris and Paulino.
The wild card here is of course all the young players—will they stick on the roster, will they perform? As a biased, optimistic fan, I think so.
I was surprised to find that the pythagorean W/L record for this projection matched my gut feeling: 77 wins.
That’s actually a significant upgrade—our pythagorean W/L record was 68.3 wins last year (we outperformed it by 5.7 wins). Of course, it’s also an optimistic and very rough projection—I won’t deny that. Still, it makes me feel a little better to break it down into components this way.
by OremLK on Jan 31, 2010 8:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I have a hard time believing that Manzella’s defense will make up for the differential between Tejada’s offense and his offense. But, then we have no idea what Manzella’s UZR will look like, so I guess we will see. My expectation for Manzella’s range is slightly above average to average for his first year. But I would love to be surprised on the upside.
by clack on Jan 31, 2010 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I've stated this before
But I’m not sure that Manzella is the defensive whiz he’s being sold as right now. True, I’ve only seen him in 5-6 games (in person, at RR), but I was never once sated that we had a truly above average glove man pencilled in at 6. I think he has great range, but an inaccurate arm.
Now, this is something that could be masked because Lance Berkman is only of the more highly regarded “scoopers” in the game, but still—I’m wary.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 31, 2010 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
by the way, based on TotalZone...
Manzella was -3 runs/150 in Round Rock last year, and +6 runs/150 in 2008 between Round Rock and Corpus. I take TotalZone with a grain of salt, but that might lead me to believe that he will be slightly above average to average at the ML level.
by clack on Jan 31, 2010 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s how I projected him for the figures above. I think I had him at a couple runs above average on defense and about 10-15 runs below average on offense. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but it was somewhere around there.
Tejada’s defense was really, really bad, and it he was only one win above average offensively, despite his high batting average. A lot of his WAR came from the positional adjustment for shortstops.
by OremLK on Jan 31, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Tejada is worth more than that.
yes, his defense was bad last year, but it was very good in 2008 (+8 runs). His true defense is probably somewhere between those extremes. Tejada’s WAR over the last three years: 2.3, 3.2, 2.6. I just don’t seem him dropping into a range below 2 WAR. And I just can’t see Manzella approaching that level by a long shot.
by clack on Jan 31, 2010 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s surprisingly easy to post 2 WAR as a shortstop if you have decent defense, because the positional value is so high.
For instance, in 2002, Jimmy Rollins put up a .245/.306/.380 batting line, for .686 OPS (.302 wOBA), while posting pretty much league average defense at shortstop (0.8 UZR). FanGraphs valued his season at 1.9 WAR.
That’s pretty close to what I expect from Manzella. Maybe a bit better defense and a bit worse offense. On second look, maybe saying that he would match Tejada’s 2.6 WAR in 2009 was a little too optimistic, but a 2 WAR season isn’t as unlikely as you might think.
by OremLK on Jan 31, 2010 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
can't say I disagree
I gotta think that, roughly, this team will finish in the 77-83 wins range. I said 79-83 for the team last season, but this season that prediction may actually come true
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Jan 31, 2010 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I sure hope you guys are right...
my projections are not quite so optimistic. I don’t see our rotation has improved since last year. Too many ? about Meyers staying healthy (Kaz too for that matter) I thought Moehler had retired Or was that Brocail…I always get those 2 mixed up :-( …As far as the bull pen goes, there’s nobody there to replace Valverde, unless Lindstrom can step up…?there too. I do think we’ll have some good pop at the plate, but not enough to outscore our opponets. If you notice, there’s alot of ?? in my projection. I REALLY wish I could be more hopeful….but, to me….I think we’re gonna be lucky to hit .500….and guys….that’s sad.
by titansfan4ever on Jan 31, 2010 9:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
As HLP said, the rotation has improved significantly because Myers, Norris, and Paulino project to be better than Hampton, Ortiz, and Moehler.
by OremLK on Jan 31, 2010 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Might be more of a problem. But maybe not. Just depends on a number of different things… how Mills and Arnsberg handle the bullpen, how Lyon and Lindstrom work out, etc. I try not to get too worked up over relief pitchers though.
by OremLK on Jan 31, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
When I look at all the games our bullpen lost for us last year, I don’t know about “worked up”, but it concerns me.
by titansfan4ever on Jan 31, 2010 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I have high hopes
Mills and Arnsberg make for a much improved August and September over 2009..
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jan 31, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
HLP referred to them as enigmas...
I don’t think that equates to significant improvement.
by titansfan4ever on Jan 31, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lyon is an above average relief pitcher. He isn’t as good as Valverde, but he should be at least average in whatever late inning role he is given. I doubt that we see more than 1 win difference between Valverde and Lyon if Lyon is the closer. And that can be reduced, if Lindstrom comes through. In effect, the Astros have bought two arms to replace Valverde (which I advocated) and Wade says that they may not be designated as closers, but rather used situationally in the 9th inning. That seems like a good idea to me. Even if Lyon/Lindstrom don’t work out in the closer role, I think we have a bunch of great younger arms in the bullpen who have the potential to be as good as Valverde (Arias tops my list there) if they were to be put in that role. Overall I like this year’s bullpen better than last year’s. At this time last year, we had no idea how good Fulchino, Arias, and Gervacio would turn out to be in the bullpen.
by clack on Jan 31, 2010 10:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
other reasons to be optimistic about the bullpen: no more Geoff Geary; Wesley Wright won’t be there unless he is effective; Chris Sampson will be rested; and….no more Cecil Cooper to destroy the bullpen’s effectiveness.
by clack on Jan 31, 2010 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Our bullpen
Is full of above average guys who excel in one particular area, but are pretty average in every other (Except for Lyon, maybe. He’s pretty much just slightly above average all the way around). That means that there’s an immense amount of flexibility and maximization that can occur, which is a good think in the right hands.
It remains to be seen exactly how it will all wash out, but if the worst thing that can be said about this bullpen is that it’s short Jose Valverde, but still filled with a bevy of capable stand ins, then that’s an enigma to see play out, but not a bad enigma to have on our hands.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 31, 2010 10:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that’s the thing that concerns me…I remember having this identical conversation with a friend of mine this time last year….and…..it didn’t “wash out” very well.
by titansfan4ever on Jan 31, 2010 12:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The bullpen didn't wash out well
Because Cecil Cooper was in charge of it and abused just about every arm he could.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 31, 2010 2:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that Cooper is excused but, I’d also like to mention that having Ortiz and Hampton in the rotation and failing to go 5 innings also contributed to the downfall of the bullpen.
by timmy_ on Feb 2, 2010 7:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and, at various times, Cooper removed those two starters too fast, also contributing to the bullpen problem. Cooper had no tolerance for walks and nibbling; but if you have starters at that age, you have to accept and understand that they will nibble, trying to get hitters to hit the low pitch or the ouside the zone pitch. Even when they were younger, both Hampton and Ortiz had that style of pitching. If Dierker had pulled Hampton every time he had a couple of runners on base in the 5th inning, his career (and ERA) probably would have looked far different.
by clack on Feb 2, 2010 10:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
One of the big reasons PECOTA has the Astros winning seven more games in 2010 than in 2009 is because of our defense. A full season with Manzella and Feliz, coupled with terrific outfield defense in center and right, and the Moneyball strategy of the new decade is certainly trending upwards for the Astros. Jason Castro’s arrival would mean that only Carlos Lee (maybe Lance too) is a truly below average defender out of the non pitching defensive players.
Astros won 74 games in 09 and PECOTA projects a 74 win season, and that’s a 7 win improvement?
BP seemed generous to me in giving Keppinger +2 wins on offense, and they gave Bourn some nice offense, plus Matsui some generous offense and playing time as well.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 31, 2010 5:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think HLP may have been talking about PECOTA’s projection of last year. They’re projecting us to win more games than they did last year.
Also, our pythag for 2009 was was 68.3 wins, so they weren’t actually far off. We just somehow overachieved enough to win 74 games despite allowing many more runs than we scored. Don’t know how that worked out with Cooper at the helm…
by OremLK on Jan 31, 2010 5:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OremLK is right
I meant that the Astros won 74 games last season, and they were projected to win 66.6
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Jan 31, 2010 5:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Benches in the division
You forgot our power bat, Craig Counsell

by ol Pete on Jan 31, 2010 9:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
wisconsin's finest!
I saw him on your 40 man roster, but figured he started too much to be considered a bench player.
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 1, 2010 8:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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