Saturday's Astros Odds and Ends
Was going to post a FanShot of this last night when it broke, but since there were multiple things going on, I condensed it down into this one nice post.
First off, the Astros came to arbitration agreements with two players, Jeff Keppinger, who will earn 1.15 million in 2010 and Chris Sampson, who will earn 810,000. I'm interested to know whether this is a good sign for Sampson staying on the roster? Certainly, if they didn't think he would make the team, they could have just cut him and not committed to paying him almost a million guaranteed. I'm not surprised at Kepp, even if it was mildly shocking when Richard Justice suggested recently that he could possibly steal the second base job away from Kaz. Can we be that lucky?
Not worried about any of the other guys going into arbitration. Pence, Wandy and Bourn probably wanted too much money to settle before the hearings start, but I'd be shocked if any of them actually get to the point of an arbiter deciding salaries.
Secondly, the Astros invited five minor leaguers to the big league camp. Jason Castro comes as no surprise and Chia-jen Lo is only slightly more surprising, but Brian Esposito? Lou Santangelo? Shane Loux? I'm assuming Esposito, Castro and Santangelo were added more for catcher depth to get through the long spring than anything, but as I said in my post earlier this week, Esposito has a very slight chance of winning a backup job. The organization apparently likes something about him and he probably wouldn't embarrass himself in 100-125 plate appearances. Lo probably has more of a chance, as I stated in the previous post too, but let's not get our hopes up. View this as a move to get them experience, not as a legitimate shot at a 25-man roster spot.
Though Brian McTaggart insists that Castro will be given the opportunity to win the starting catcher's spot, I'm very skeptical. The Astros sort of played this game with Hunter Pence in his rookie season, but he still became a Super 2. Monetarily and in long-term thinking, it makes sense to keep Castro down long enough to lengthen his club-controlled salary time. The capitalist in me, however, wants the Young Mr. Castro to win the job outright and earn every penny he can.
Thirdly, here's an excellent article on new pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. Everything he says in here is stuff we've already discussed, but he definitely seems to be a pitcher-friendly guy. I also like that he's going to leave the handling of the staff (when to pull guys, how many pitches, etc.) to Brad Mills. We can hope none of the relievers arms will fall of this year, right?
Lastly, here's one in a series of articles by SBNation on what the future of sports will look like in the next 10 years. Lookout Landing's Jeff Sullivan gave his ideas for how to make the game better in the next decade. I'll admit this is a fun article from the "It's the dead of winter, pitchers and catchers don't report for 37 more days, let's argue about something," angle. What surprised me was how little I agreed with him on. Yes, I do think moving to a computer-controlled strike zone will happen sooner or later, I still think human umpires will play a huge role in the game. The NFL and college football try to use replay for (almost) everything, but there are still plays every week that are just too close to call by review. Thus, an umpire's judgement will still be crucial and must be done in a situation where they don't assume whatever they call can and will be reviewed.
Oddly enough, the statement that caused the biggest reaction from me was his assertion that steroids should be legalized since they aren't harmful. I'm assuming all the weightlifters that have died from heart attacks or pro wrestlers dropping dead in their 40s was because of natural causes? Or something besides the crap they were pumping into themselves? I'm not even sure stuff like Wistrol and the other steroids being used most frequently ARE something that can be prescribed by doctors for "ordinary things." Certainly, that works for HGH, but has there been any evidence that it can improve performance? If there has, I haven't seen it. The fact is, the US governement isn't going to overturn the ban on steroids, so it's a moot point; as long as it's illegal, it'll be against the rules in professional sports.
That's all I've got for today. Sullivan's statements on revenue sharing and the structure of MLB were also very interesting, but will probably have to wait for a post next week.
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The problems with Keppinger as a starter is that he profiles so much better as a platoon player against LHP. He is a very good player if he platoons, but a below average player if he starts against all pitchers. I suspect that his below average season last year was due to the fact that he was used against RHP more than usual.
Since Kaz is a switch hitter, a Matsui-Keppinger platoon would sound like a good idea, right? Unfortunately, though, in 2009 Matsui was a much better hitter vs. LHP too. Over his career, Kaz Matsui has a mild advantage when batting as a RHB, not nearly as significant a platoon split as last year. I wondered last season if Matsui’s 100 point OPS platoon differential was due to his back injury affecting his batting primarily as a LHB. If Kaz could get back to the mild platoon differential over his career (approximately 10 point OPS differential vs. LHP), a Matsui-Keppinge platoon might make sense.
I should also mention that Matsui’s holds some advantages over competitors at second base. Despite his DL time, Matsui was +38 runs as a base runner over the past two years. Keppinger, on the other hand, -11 runs as a base runner. (Bill James baserunning stats.) Keppinger’s lack of speed and contact hitting makes him one of the Astros’ biggest DP candidates (his DP% is higher than Carlos Lee). Matsui has the second lowest DP% (behind Bourn) on the team. So, I don’t know that the Astros will be “lucky” if Keppinger beats out Matsui.
As usual, your excellent research puts me to shame. I would like to note that my comment about being lucky was more about getting Matsui out of the lineup than putting Kepp in. I’d resigned myself to the fact that Matsui would probably be slotted in because of his contract. It was nice to hear even speculation that it might not be the case.
by David Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 4:10 PM CST up reply actions
As for Castro, I would prefer that he start the season in AAA, and not for any service time clock reasons. Castro’s hitting last season, particularly given his late season swoon vs. tougher competition, makes me think that he definitely needs seasoning in AAA. I don’t want the Astros to make the mistake they made with Towles. Besides, the Astros need to give Towles a shot to see if he can ever meet his minor league hitting potential.
Agreed
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 16, 2010 8:04 AM CST up reply actions
I think that Pence's arb
Could end up being higher than expected, and I imagine that Tal Smith knows this and will try and undersell the crap of out of him. With Matt Kemp’s contract yesterday, I think it drastically changes how this will be handled, and I can see some feelings getting hurt in the process.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Hopefully that SB% will go up after some tutoring with Eric Young.
AstrosCounty has three interesting posts (with good commentary, and a guest opinion by Maury Brown from Biz of Baseball) evaluating how Pence’s arb might change due to Kemp’s contract. (Post 1, Post 2, Post 3)
The points that I took away from the discussion are as follows:
- Kemp’s $10.95M deal is meant to be fair over two seasons…since Pence is going year-to-year, even if he made $10M total over 2010-11, it’d be split $3.5 (2010), $6.5 (2011)…especially since Pence is a Super 2.
- Kemp is younger, plays a tougher position (CF), finished 10th in MVP voting, and won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger this year…these factors, plus the fact that Kemp’s numbers were a bit better this year, would likely mean that Pence would get less than Kemp.
- Even though Kemp is Pence’s most similar batter (according to BaseballReference), Andre Ethier is a probably a better comparison since he was a Super 2, and 26 years old in 2008 and plays the same defensive position as Pence. When Ethier signed his $3.1M one-year contract, it was the highest one-year contract for a Super 2. I’d expect Pence to be much closer to Ethier’s $3.1M than half of Kemp’s $11M two year contract.
- Finally, Tal Smith is an arbitration legend.
That last line about Tal Smith is why I think things should go smoothly. He’ll get things done without many hard feelings (hopefully).
by David Coleman on Jan 16, 2010 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
Do we know what the two sides propose?
What have the Astros offered.? What has Pence countered?
(Ditto Wandy)
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jan 17, 2010 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
PED
This is perhaps the worst pro PED argument i’ve ever seen…especially since most are far-fetched anyway. But, comparing PED to lasik is absolutely ridiculous. Lasik improves eye-sight back to normal due to eye degradation over the years. PED’s improve performance beyond normal. They’re enhancing drugs not repairing drugs.
Your take on on HGH is dead on. I had to do a research paper over ergogenic aids at the end of last semester for exercise physiology class and i did it over HGH. Every single ‘benefit’ has been proven in GH deficient and elderly patients. While studies in the area of athletes and normal subjects are still extremely limited, the present studies have shown they are not effective. There is a chance that they increase fat metabolism because a study found an increased level of blood triglycerides that could be attained to increased fat metabolism but the study wasn’t set up to determine the cause of that, it was just an added observation. On the opposite side, HGH could actually decrease performance in endurance based events if taken at the wrong time. A study showed that highly trained cyclists performed worse in the HGH administered trial due to an earlier onset of fatigue due to increased blood lactate levels. These athletes actually had a reduced lactate threshold with HGH causing increased fatigue and decreased performance.

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