Passing PECOTA: Astros set to surpass projected win total

by Evan Hochschild on Sep 6, 2009 9:00 AM CDT

                         Div.     Wild    Total
NL Central   W      L   Title %  Card %  Postseason %
Cubs       95.3   66.7   52.0    10.0    62.0
Brewers    86.4   75.6   22.9    10.4    33.3
Cardinals  80.1   81.9   11.6     6.5    18.1
Reds       79.4   82.6   10.4     6.1    16.4
Astros     66.6   95.4    1.9     1.2     3.1
Pirates    64.5   97.5    1.3     0.8     2.1

Courtesy: Baseball Prospectus

Just thought I’d throw this up there. Surpassing (hopefully soon) low expectations, your 2009 Houston Astros.

**DQ Insert***

Just for comparisons sake:

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	81	56	.591	0	Won 2
Chicago	68	66	.507	11.5	Won 1
Houston	65	70	.481	15	Won 2
Milwaukee	65	70	.481	15	Lost 2
Cincinnati	62	73	.459	18	Won 6
Pittsburgh	53	81	.395	26.5	Lost 9

(updated 9.6.2009 at 10:06 AM CDT)

Tweet Comment 5 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Only the Cardinals and Astros surpass expectations

Cardinals added some major parts mid-season that spirited them way ahead of the the division.

Astros still can finish ahead of Cubs, Brewers and Reds (and Pirates). (Query: If Astros finish second, can (or will) Astros fire Cecil Cooper?)

As disappointed as the Astros fans are, the Cubs and Brewers fans must be devastated seeing their post-season expectations shattered.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 6, 2009 12:51 PM CDT reply actions

I’m probably not the only Astros’ fan who has some torn feelings about the Astros making a late season splurge. As a fan, I am programmed to want the Astros to win as many games as possible, and in the end, I would like to see the Astros advance in the standings.

But the bittersweet part of that outcome: (1) Like you say, it might save Cooper’s job, which would be bad for future teams; (2) the Astros’ draft position would be worse; and (3) the Astros might fall out of the 15 worst teams and thereby lose the ability to sign Type A FAs without losing a draft pick.

by clack on Sep 6, 2009 1:01 PM CDT reply actions

Houston Astros

When will this owner realize he has to pay for good players? He has let every great player coming up go. I’m sick of the Cardinals and Cubs kicking their ass. The Express is even foundering. I believe Nolan Ryan and his involvment with Texas should have been with Houston and maybe this would change things.

by lwj1215 on Sep 6, 2009 6:53 PM CDT reply actions

There are a lot of things wrong with your post

When will this owner realize he has to pay for good players?

Strike One. Drayton does pay well for good players. This is why he signed Roy Oswalt to a record-breaking contract back in 2006. It’s why Berkman has been making $14,500,000.00 every year since 2006, and will make the same amount next year and will make $15,000,000.00 if he comes back for 2011. It’s why Drayton signed off on the Tejada trade. And Carlos Lee’s 6-year, $100,000,000.00 contract is not just paying for a good player, but overpaying for a good player. And further, the Astros were one of only 9 teams that started this season with player payroll over $100,000,000.00.

He has let every great player coming up go.

Strike Two. Roy Oswalt = Homegrown. Lance Berkman = Homegrown. Brad Lidge = Homegrown. Wandy Rodriguez = Homegrown. Hunter Pence = Homegrown. The problem isn’t that we let them go, it’s that guys who should have made a bigger impact ended up fizzling out (sometimes spectacularly): Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, Chris Burke. MAybe you’re talking about Ben Zobrist, but if you are, you’re wrong there, too.

I believe Nolan Ryan and his involvment with Texas should have been with Houston and maybe this would change things.

Strike Three. First, Nolan Ryan was involved with Houston for years. In 2004, he signed a 5-year personal services contract with the Astros and essentially served as an adviser to the team. Second, only a very tiny part of the Rangers’ current success could be attributed to Nolan Ryan’s work since he went up to Arlington as the president of the Rangers. Most of that success is due to the smart drafting and trading by the GM that was there before he arrived. Nolan did have an effect on the farm system by changing the way their minor league system treats pitch counts. However, the Astros have also examined and changed the way that pitch counts are used with their young pitchers as well, so it’s not clear that Nolan would have had a different effect in our system.

So, three strikes, you’re out. Although I agree with you that it makes me sick to see the stros get their asses kicked by the Cubs and Cards, and that it’s a shame that the Express is having a hard time.

by AstroAndy on Sep 6, 2009 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

clap. clap. clap. clap clapclapclapclapclapclap

by Evan Hochschild on Sep 6, 2009 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

The Importance of George Springer

by ntn 12 days ago

27 comments | 2 recs

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Current Series

3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium

Fri 05/25	WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3) SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2)	3 - 1 win
Sat 05/26	WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0) LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1)	3 - 6 loss
Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes @ Los Angeles Dodgers True Blue LA Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Dodger Stadium J.A. Happ vs Chris Capuano Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. Complete Coverage >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11