So here we are, in mid-September, an inch away from elimination and now in fourth place in the division.  Hindsight is 20/20, and this post is not about pointing fingers.  But the fact remains that the Astros could win every remaining game and still finish the season as a mediocrity, many games back even from the wild card, let alone the division title.  So now it's time to look forward to next year.  Changes clearly need to be made, to the roster and to the management; this article is about the former.  This is my first FanPost here; I hope you like it.

The Houston Astros are rumored to have $90 million to work with next season, give or take.  This is a substantial drop even from this year.  It's not a bad payroll, qualifying the Astros as a mid-market team, but past management decisions have taken their toll, and a troubling $50 million or so of that is tied up in a few core players whose performance this year has not matched their price.  So unless Drayton McLane suddenly decides in the offseason that his first priority is winning, we are effectively a small market team that must pinch pennies to have any hope of success.

The problem?  Our farm sucks.  This means that several key roster spots must be filled with marginal-to-decent prospects who have as much chance of burning out and turning into AAA lifers as they do of succeeding at the big league level.

Otherwise, we are going to have to shop for bargains and take some risks on the free agent market.  No top free agents; no John Lackey or Chone Figgins.  We will have to look for a couple of guys who are not in as high of demand, and fill our other positions with unseasoned rookies.

So without further ado, here is my suggested 2010 Houston Astros roster.

Position Players

2. Catcher.  Top Pick: Jason Castro.  Backups: Chris Coste, J.R. Towles.  Ideally, this position will be filled by the Astros' 2009 top prospect, Castro.  This does, however, depend on his performance in spring training.  Chris Coste batted .263 last year with the Phillies; although he is already fairly old, he may bounce back from this year to some extent, and he seems like a good clubhouse presence.  If Castro must go to AAA, Coste should be our primary catcher, with J.R. Towles serving as his backup. Humberto Quintero should be traded to somebody in need of a big league-ready backup catcher, ideally for a class A infield prospect (or two) with some upside--obviously not anywhere near a top prospect, but a player who might develop.

3. First Base: Top Pick: Lance Berkman.  Backup: Jeff Keppinger.  The Big Puma isn't going anywhere.  Hopefully he will bounce back and simultaneously avoid trips to the DL in 2010.

4. Second Base: Two-Way Tie: Kazuo Matsui and Edwin Maysonet.  The contrast between Maysonet's big league and minor league numbers is so stark as to make me doubt that he can come anywhere close to sustaining this year's performance.  Nonetheless, he has earned himself a chance to compete for the job.  Matsui's contract continues through 2010, and we are unlikely to find any takers for him on the trade market, so we're stuck with him.  His defense has been competent and he has shown late signs of improving at the plate; allow him and Maysonet to compete for the job, with the loser backing up the starts of whoever performs better.

5. Third Base: Top Pick: Adam Kennedy.  Backup/Platoon mate: Jeff Keppinger.  Adam Kennedy has had a good year both offensively and defensively with the Athletics; he would be a significant upgrade over Geoff Blum, and I would argue that he would even be better than Miguel Tejada.  He batted .285 with a .347 on-base percentage this year.  At the age of 33, he is younger than Tejada, and his performance is not likely to significantly decline.  He doesn't offer the slugging that a third baseman should provide, but then, neither do any of our other options.  He hits much better against righties than lefties, making him the ideal platoon mate for Keppinger.  Why not Chris Johnson, you ask?  It's not that I want to rule him out for the future, it's just that his AAA numbers were not good enough for third base even if he matched them at the big league level.  He needs more development time on the farm, not a year of failure on the Astros roster.

6. Shortstop: Top Pick: Tommy Manzella.  Backup: Wladimir Sutil (40-man roster only).  Manzella deserves a shot at the big leagues.  A full year, and even if he fails, spring training of the next.  Look what happened with Michael Bourn.  His defense would be a subtle but worthwhile upgrade to the performance of our pitching staff, and his .289 batting average this season at AAA suggests that he might be able to hold his own at the plate as well.  As long as he cracks the Mendoza Line, let him play (and even if he doesn't crack it at first; everyone slumps sometimes).

7. Left Fielder: Top Pick: Carlos Lee.  Backup: Reggie Abercrombie.  We're stuck with El Caballo, and barring a trip to the DL, he will play for us every game in LF.  Abercrombie should join the Astros on the bench as a pinch hitter and backup outfielder.  He will be 28 years old and is not a starting prospect of any kind going forward, which is an intentional choice on my part.  We don't want to damage the development of somebody like Brian Bogusevic or Drew Locke by sitting them on the bench all year.  Perhaps Abercrombie will bat .200 or so as a third or fourth pinch hitter--regardless, he is the kind of low-cost option we will need to settle for next season, while letting go of more expensive veterans like Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels.  Unless Drayton opens up the payroll a little more to allow the purchase of a better backup, that's the situation as it stands.

8. Center Fielder: Top Pick: Michael Bourn.  Backup: Reggie Abercrombie.  Bourn is, again, a given.  I again have little confidence in Abercrombie, but hopefully we won't have to see him as more than the occasional pinch hitter.

9. Right Fielder: Top Pick: Hunter Pence.  Backup: Reggie Abercrombie.  Let's all cross our fingers and hope this is Hunter's big year.  He's due for breakout year sometime soon, the way things usually pan out for young players.

Total Estimated Cost: $55.5 million

Pitching

#1.  Wandy Rodriguez.  Wandy's breakout year qualifies him for opening day in 2010.  Unfortunately, it also qualifies him for a lot more money in arbitration, but you can't get performance without paying for it.

#2. Roy Oswalt.  Roy's back condition is troublesome, and his resulting numbers this season were worse than any previous year.  But we're stuck with him and his high-priced contract through next season, and we're going to have to hope he can pull it together and give us legitimate #2 performance.

#3. Choose one: Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro, etc.  The decision for a #3 free agent starter is probably the most complex and risky of any of these choices.  I won't weigh in specifically--this is something that Ed Wade's scouts and penny-pinchers are going to have to figure out--but I will say this: Get somebody relatively young who might still have a career year left in him--early thirties at the oldest.  And take a risk, because that's the only way we're going to afford somebody who is capable of putting up ace numbers.  Don't settle for a Doug Davis or a Jon Garland type; if we wanted reliable mediocrity, we could exercise Brian Moehler's option and get a better value.  Bet big and roll the dice, but only for one year--it's going to take a lot of luck to compete in 2010 regardless, so you might as well play it for all it's worth.

#4. Bud Norris. He has the stuff.  He has the composure.  If he can find the refinement and consistency, he could be a very important part of our rotation, and exceed the expectations of his #4 slot.  Or, being a rookie, he could bomb as often as he succeeds.  Even if that happens, he's demonstrated that he's ready for the big leagues, and this is the only place he's going to be able to grow.  Give him the full season as a starting pitcher.

#5. Felipe Paulino. He has the stuff, perhaps even moreso than Bud Norris, but he doesn't necessarily have the composure, and he sure as heck doesn't have the refinement or consistency.  Still, his stuff is lightning, and the other things just might come with experience.  Don't leave him in doubt, like this year: Give him, too, one more chance--a real one, an entire season, and let him grow.

Backup starters: Wesley Wright, Polin Trinidad, Yorman Bazardo.  There's been a lot of talk that Wesley Wright will be groomed for a starting job in winter ball and spring training; that should be enough to back up the rotation.  In the event that disaster strikes, Bazardo and Trinidad should also be available, at the least to be called up for a start or three.

Closer: Jeff Fulchino.  He has excelled this year, with a hard fastball, a good slider, and a split finger pitch that has shown a lot of development.  His stuff still can't match Jose Valverde's, but it--and his performance--should be enough to hold his own as a closer, blowing as few saves as he did innings this year.  Sure, LaTroy Hawkins is also a viable option as closer, but why spend as much as he will demand when Fulchino is almost as good, while also being cheaper and younger?

Bullpen: Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias, Sammy Gervacio, Wesley Wright, Yorman Bazardo, Wilton Lopez.  Half of the bullpen should be strong next year, while the other half will be more of a question mark.

Total Estimated Cost: $35 million

Overall Estimated Cost: $90.5 million

Can the Houston Astros succeed next year with this kind of lineup?  There are so many unknown variables.  Does Roy Oswalt's back hold up?  Does Wandy maintain this year's performance, or was it an aberration?  Will the #3 starter we sign pitch well and stay off the disabled list?  How about Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, and the young, rookie-filled bullpen?

Will Lance Berkman and Kazuo Matsui bounce back from bad years?  Will Jason Castro live up his billing as the Astros' top prospect, or will he need more time on the farm?  Was Tommy Manzella's decent offensive season at AAA a fluke, or will he be another J.R. Towles at the big league level?

It would take an alignment of the stars for most or all of these questions to have good answers, answers that result in success for the 2010 team.  But I know one thing: It would be a much younger, much more interesting team to watch.

How about you?  What are your thoughts?  What changes would you make to the lineup?