Miguel Tejada looks like a goner, Felipe Paulino gets his role, and a Ross Seaton interview
Based on the conversation that Richard Justice had recently with Miguel Tejada, it sounds as if Miguel's future with the Astros is hazy at best. From what RJ wrote on Saturday about the Astros' 2010 lineup being populated mostly by players under the age of thirty, to Drayton McLane's desire and apparent intent to cut payroll to the mid $90 million range, this quote probably has a lot more credence to it than just about anything in connection with this incarnation of the Astros:
[T]he Astros are going to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year, and they're determined to begin the transition to a younger team...
Despite Tejada's overt willingness to shift to third base (like many of us here have wanted), the organization doesn't seem to be as gung-ho. Rather, Tommy Manzella and Chris Johnson appear the likely left side infielders in 2010. This is a prudent financial decision, and a reward to Manzella and Johnson for performing well in AAA this season. Both will struggle offensively at times, but such is life with young players. Everything that Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn went through, these two will experience as well. Leadership on a team isn't something we talk about a lot on TCB, but veteran leaders are important in transition periods, and sadly Miguel Tejada would be an excellent person to have around for that purpose.
Felipe Paulino will be a key cog in the rebuilding effort this offseason, and his recent quotes concerning his role on the 2009 Astros do not bode well for the future of Cecil Cooper:
I just need one role. Just give me the role, and I'll go pitch. It's really hard when you go to the games and you don't know what your role is. For me, it's more easy when you go to the games and they tell you "hey Paulino, you're going to start the next six games, so just be ready." It's going to be easy. Baseball now, you don't pitch with your body; you pitch with your mind. Now it's easier when you go pitch and you know you pitch every five days.
I like this quote because it allows us to engage the subject of Felipe Paulino and his ability to be a viable major leaguer on a level beyond what statistics can tell us. Sure, he hasn't always been good this season, but his tERA and FIP can only tell us so much about his performance this year. These players aren't robots pre-programmed to perform on a certain level. They have external factors acting on them outside of what goes on between the foul lines. Instability affects Felipe Paulino the same way it would you or I if our responsibilities at work were constantly in flux. Find a comfort level and we perform better. That appears to be pretty much a universal rule.
Brian McTaggart has a nice write up about his time spent recently with prospect Ross Seaton. The 18 year old just finished his first season of professional baseball with the Lexington Legends and is eager to head to the Instructional League in Kissimmee, FL to hone his craft:
"I'm going to work on polishing things up, getting my command and getting the slider and curve over and all that stuff," he said. "I'm going to keep working on the same stuff I've been working on all season, and now that we're out of it this season, I can work on it a little bit more and tinker with stuff more than I could during the season. Hopefully, I'll keep making progress."
The main issue with the quintet of Lexington starters is where to start them in 2010? Moving them up High A Lancaster means putting them in a hitters paradise that has no peer in minor league baseball, or perhaps moving some or all to AA Corpus Christi.
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Looking at Chris Johnson’s season in Round Rock, I have a hard time seeing how he has earned a promotion to the majors. A sub-.800 OPS in AAA is weak for a 3d baseman. And his .341 BABIP this season (highest of his minor league career) is indicative that his .280’s batting average probably is unsustainable. Johnson does hit LHP much better than RHP; so perhaps a platoon with a LHB might help. However, I would feel better about searching for a AAAA third base bat in the minor leagues than starting the season with Johnson in the majors.
If you want to be depressed about the offensive potential for the 2010 team, here are the MLEs for Johnson and Manzella:
C. Johnson .239, .273, .378, .651
Manzella .245, .285, .345, .630
We're screwed if this is the plan...
If this is what drayton wants to do and doesn’t want to spend some good money on the rotation, the budget is gonna be much lower than the previously mentioned 92 mil. Maybe that will add a little to the 2011 budget…but i doubt it.
Deja Vu
Pop Quiz:
What year were Adam Everett and Morgan Ensberg named the opening day starters for SS and 3B?
2003….but I think Ensberg was a platoon starter with Blum.
However, I don’t think comparing Ensberg and Chris Johnson makes me feel any better. Ensberg was considered one of the top 2 or 3 third base prospects in baseball. Ensberg was a 25 HR/year hitter in 00 and 01 in AA and AAA with a .960 and .989 OPS. Ensberg was given an audition for a starting position in the majors in 02, but I’m not sure if it was a the beginning of the year or as a later call up.
I believe Ensberg had been given the starting job out right, and eventually played into a platoon situation with Blum. I was just pointing out that next year will be a lot like 2003 in which they started two rookies on the left side of the infield, and how well that worked out. I always liked Ensberg and Everett, and thought they got a bit of a raw deal.
When Tejada came I was all for him moving to 3B to keep Everett at short, but the powers that be decided otherwise…
AAAA 3B
Heether seems like a good risk for some team if the Brewers don’t find some way to get him on the roster. I’m pretty sure he is a minor league FA if he isn’t. I suppose the trading within the division would handicap a trade to the Astros although maybe Heck’s relationship would be a plus in working out something.
I don’t know anything about him, but that looks like a good suggestion based on his 09 offensive stats. Here is his overall minor league record…he has been fairly consistent on offense. His OBP would be a good addition.
The More I Think About It
The more I like the idea of giving a shot to some AAAA 3B outside the Astros system. I’m not confident that C. Johnson can handle the big leagues without at least another year in AAA. It’s a bit sad that the only sort of homegrown AAAA depth we have is in the outfield, and we don’t really need the help there (except as a bench replacement).
Rule V Draft
You think there is a possibility that there might be a 3B available in the Rule V…maybe we get lucky and get someone as successful as Dan Uggla is out of the Rule V
Possible, but unlikely
Rule 5 tends to be a better place to pick up pitchers rather than position players. This is because the guys who are Rule 5 eligible aren’t yet good/experienced enough to stick on a major league roster for the full season. At least with a pitcher, you can usually hide him in the bullpen. Hard to hide a 3B. You could put him on the bench, I guess, and he probably wouldn’t fare much worse than Matt Kata, but he’d miss some valuable development time.
I also meant to add
that the offseason minor league free agents list is probably a better place to look for a 3B than the Rule 5. Those guys at least have a good bit of experience, usually at AAA, and are taking free agency because they don’t think they have a shot at making the bigs with their current team.
conversation with myself
you’ll want to look for guys who have at least one outstanding skill.
Like Jesus Guzman, who has 16 unimpressive plate appearances at the major league level, but who generally knocked the crap out of the ball throughout his minor league career (his contract with the Giants will end this year).
Or a guy like Wes Timmons who has shown exceptional OBP skills throughout the Braves minors.
Jesus Guzman was the only third baseman whom I mentioned in my article on possible Rule 5 picks last year….here.
Good job pulling that one out of the archives
Of all the guys in that article, Guzman was the only position player who had a good 2009.
The pitchers, as expected, fared a lot better. Luis Perdomo threw a few unimpressive innings in the majors, and Kevin Whelan got good results repeating AA. Brad Kilby, on the other hand, repeated AAA and put up better numbers than Bud Norris. Darren O’Day posted a sub-1.00 WHIP for the Rangers over 59 innings of relief pitching (the rich got richer in that case).
He and Blum have had similar seasons on offense
But Cabrera edges Blum out just barely, thanks to his OBP
Blum: .258/.324/.377
Cabrera: .258/.349/.371
Blum had a better defensive season. UZR/150:
Blum: -1.4
Cabrera: -8.8
Perhaps the most relevant number is this: 23. That’s how old Cabrera will be after this season is over. And it’s how many stolen bases he has. In the end, a very good Rule 5 pick.
...and Cabrera had only played in A ball, too.
People who watch him think he will be a good defensive shortstop.
Tejada gone? Seriously?
I’ll admit fellas, I’ve been a pretty lousy Stros fan since College Football started, but this is some news for me…..
" Answers -- Become Resources."
Without Questions; There are limited Resources...

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