Can the 2010 Astros be competitive?
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 14, 2009 7:00 AM CDT
in Hot Stove
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PrintI'll admit from the outset that this depressing for me to write for two reasons. One, of course, being that it's depressing that I can't find anything worth writing about the 2009 Astros and two being that I am left wondering how the 2010 Astros can do better than their 2009 version. This ominous thought has been lurking in the back of my mind since I did an interview with Fred Fauor a few weeks ago in which the topic of how the 2010 Astros should assemble themselves left me clawing for any semblance of hope (which is a sports fan's best friend in times like these).
The logical place to start this conversation is payroll. A team can't build something if it can't afford to buy the requisite building materials. Everytime I have tried to account for the dollars and cents of the core of the Astros roster for next year I've totaled $75 to $82 million. This roster includes (with best guess efforts for arbitration bonuses and salary escalation):
- Lance Berkman
- Carlos Lee
- Roy Oswalt
- Wandy Rodriguez
- Hunter Pence
- Michael Bourn
- Jeff Keppinger
- Kazuo Matsui
- Tommy Manzella
- Miguel Tejada (anywhere from $6 million to $11 million. The latter would actually be his fair market value at 3B if he replicated 90% of his offensive production from this year, assuming a cost of $4.5 million per WAR)
- LaTroy Hawkins (anywhere from $4.5 million to $7 million to be our closer)
- Bud Norris
- Felipe Paulino
- Brian Moehler
- Yorman Bazardo
- Sammy Gervacio
- Alberto Arias
- Chris Sampson
- Wesley Wright
- Tim Byrdak or some a near equivalent LOOGY
- Humerto Quintero
- Jason Castro
- JR Towles or Brian Bogusevic
- Rounding out the roster with relief pitchers that will have an average price tag of $1.25 million
If we have learned anything from the 2009 version of the Astros it is this: A seemingly stacked offense is not a good way to build a baseball team. The fact of the matter is, and will continue to be, that the core of our line up has skill set that is high slugging percentage relative to on-base percentage. This, as we now are so painfully aware of, does not an offense make. There's just no consistency in such a skill set and that fact was exacerbated by poor managerial strategy by the man at the helm of the offense, Cecil Cooper.
Even if the Astros front office decides to spare us the indignity of having Cecil Cooper continue to pull all the levers of the 2010 Astros, offense will not be our strong suit. This leaves us to the lesson we all learned in 2005: If you've got pitchers who pitch well, the team will perform well. As of right now, the only starting pitcher I put on the list above who I have confidence in is Wandy Rodriguez. I hope that Roy Oswalt will pitch well on a consistent basis in 2010, but his continued climb into his thirties, combined with his worrisome back issues, don't fill me with the confidence that the Wizard once inspired.
Dratyon McLane has already announced that payroll in 2010 will be lower than payroll in 2009, and has cited attendance this year as the motivation for this reduction. If payroll is scaled down to match in the loss in attendance revenues this year, than would place the Astros at somewhere within a million or two dollars of $90 million. That doesn't leave a lot of dough to fill out the bench and bullpen, while also buying the services of another top-tier pitcher to complement Roy and Wandy.
That leaves the likely candidates as Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Brian Moehler. However, it's hard to say that all aren't question marks in my mind. I doubt that our starting rotation will include more than two of the above to start the season, as I am sure there will be some manner of reclamation project scooped up by Ed Wade this winter. I also doubt that this unnamed pitcher will be more than a giant question mark in my mind as well. How can I be so confident that whatever Ed Wade pulls off the scrap heap will be a question mark? Just take a look at the options.
Bud Norris has flashed brilliance this season, but Wandy Rodriguez had a long and torturous journey to consistently being brilliant, so it's hard for me to place too much hope in Bud. Were Bud Norris to speed up his learning curve and provide legitimate number three services, then the Astros would have a strong rotation. Not 2005 strong, but strong enough to inspire confidence, and dare I say it, hope. Were Bazardo, Moehler, Wright (who'll be auditioned as a starter this spring, allegedly), and whoever is Ed Wade's reclamation project, to be relegated to the four and five slots, then they're imperfections and questions marks wouldn't matter as much. 2009 has been dismal mainly because 3/5 of the time there's no reason to expect good things from the guy taking the mound. At times, when injury has felled Wandy and Roy, there's almost no reason to hope for anything other than an offensive explosion to mask the deficiency in pitching.
So I've talked myself to this point: Should Bud Norris be an effective starting pitcher next year, I think that the 2010 Astros can be competitive. Do I have hope? There's a glimmer of it. Am I being unduly pessimistic? I'll leave that for you to decide. Have I missed/glossed over something? Probably. Again, tell me where I went wrong.
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I think it all depends on Bud’s mind set going into the summer. It almost seems he went into last summer with the mindset of resurrecting his carreer. He had unimpressive numbers really beyond a decent K/9 through his carreer and then burst onto the scene in the AFL last summer. If he can go into the summer with similar mindset and drastically improve his control and his change-up, sure he’ll be really good. But if he goes in complacent, look #5 quality.
The probabilities or extent of competitiveness depend on the budget. The higher the budget the higher the probability,:if the budget is tightened up too much, the only hope is to catch lightning in a bottle with big breakthroughs by young players.
In my optimistic times, I look at Bud Norris and think, “really what is the difference between him and, say, Clay Buccholz, other than hype?” However, the realistic side of me says, he has the same upside as Brian Williams, Tim Redding, and Chris Holt, all of whom were young promising starters who failed as Astros. In other words, it’s a crap shoot with young starting pitchers. We have some reassurance that Norris seems to have the intelligence and mindset to succeed. Felipe Paulino falls in the same category as Norris. If you put both Paulino and Norris in the rotation, I think there is a reasonable chance (not necessarily greater than 50% though) that one of them will become a No. 3 quality starter.
Even if Norris or Paulino make that kind of breakthrough in terms of consistency, I still worry that the rotation won’t be able to support the offense. If you add both Manzella and Chris Johnson to the starting lineup, I fear that you will have an offense which is Giants or Padres bad. And the Astros don’t have a rotation to compare to the Giants.
yep
The Astros have a lot of issues to solve, and barring a major increase in payroll, I don’t see how they can be solved by 2010 (and, of course, all indications point to Drayton cutting expenses next season, so it’s probably a moot point anyways).
The only possibility can see is that if whatever the Astros do this winter (free agency signings, small trades, moving Wesley to the rotation) works out and Pence, Bourn, Paulino, Norris, etc. are able to improve, the NL Central is likely to still be weak and ripe for an Astros breakthrough. Two reasons:
- The Cardinals probably won’t be able to sign Holliday. And that pitching staff has to fall apart eventually, right?
- The Cubs will probably bounce back, but they have a lot of the same problems that the Astros do: financial resources tied up in a few older players, a poor farm system, and young players who are good, but not stars.
Still have to worry about the Brewers, and the Reds might suddenly figure everything out, too.
I see the 2010 Astros as basically being in the same position as the 2009 Astros – bad, but not terrible. I think they could be better if they spent their freed-up payroll wisely this offseason, but (while he’s done many good things so far) I don’t really have any confidence that Wade can do that.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
It's the farm system
The farm system is a wreck and until it gets fixed, the Astros are going to suck. That’s all that matters. Forget 2010 and probably 2011. Dump as much salary as possible. Put the money into the system. Resolve to never let this happen again.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
Players on your list who could be cut
Choose 1-2 of the below players:
LaTroy Hawkins (find a closer among our middle relievers. The jobs are not as different as modern baseball wants you to think.)
Brian Moehler. He’s a good #5, but I’d rather develop Felipe Paulino and/or Yorman Bazardo at the big league level. Moehler is not the future of the Astros. Maybe Paulino will be brilliant from the get-go, but if not, we might as well use this year to try and mature him. We know he is capable of turning out quality starts a decent percentage of the time, and his stuff is lightning.
We can also think about cutting Miggy for a league average (or possibly even better) on-base type who is cheaper. Depends on his salary demands and how much he is actually willing to play 3B (since we sure as heck don’t want him playing shortstop anymore).
That should leave plenty of money for a “real” #3 starter (or as close as we can get in next year’s iffy market). I feel that this would be more important than any of these guys.
A designated closer is largely unnecessary
but it’s something that the Astros are probably going to have unless they hire a new, more forward-thinking manager during the offseason (fingers crossed, still hoping for Acta).
As for Moehler…
I was in favor of getting rid of him earlier, but I’ve changed my mind. Even if you go with Bazardo and Paulino in the opening day rotation (very unlikely), other pitchers will be necessary for spot starts and injury replacements throughout the year. He wouldn’t be too bad as a swingman out of the bullpen, I think.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
I suppose we could sign Wagner
He might take a couple million (or less with incentives) if we offer him the chance to close. Would likely be a less expensive option, at least.
Signing Moehler would be fine as long as it doesn’t get in the way of affording a good #3.
I have no idea what the market for Wagner is going to look like
but, somehow, I doubt either Wagner or Drayton is going to put aside their little spat. (And Wagner probably wants to go somewhere he can win. Plus the Phillies trade almost certainly killed whatever sentimental reasons Wagner might have to come back here).
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
2010 vs 2005
I think we can all agree that the ’05 WS team is the standard by which all Astros rosters are judged. How does the current 2010 roster compare?
Position 2010 2005
C Towles Ausmus – ’05 is better, although Towles has more upside
1B Berkman Berkman- push
2B Matsui Biggio – slight ’05 advantage
SS Manzella Everett- I say Manzella is better due to upside
3B Johnson Ensberg- ’05 wins
RF Pence Lane- huge ’10 advantage
CF Bourn Taveras- advantage ’10
LF Lee Lamb- HUGE ’10 advantage
DH Coste Palmeiro- push; Coste is more versatile, Palm more productive
UT Keppinger Burke- push
C Quintero Chavez- advantage ’10
IF Maysonet Vizcaino – push
OF Kata Bruntlett- push
Overall I’d say the 2010 offense is at least as good as the ’05 offense.
SP Oswalt Oswalt – slight advantage ’05 (O has lost a little)
SP Wandy Pettitte- push
SP Bazardo Clemens- HUGE advantage ’05
SP Norris Backe- push, although Norris has WAY more upside
SP Moehler Wandy- push
SP/RP Paulino Astacio- push
LHP/RP Wright Springer- push
LHP Byrdak Gallo- push
RP Arias Harville- advantage ’10
SU Gervacio Wheeler- push
SU Fulchino Qualls- push
CL Sampson Lidge- HUGE advantage ’05
’05 has a much better rotation and closer, but the ’10 lineup has way more upside to it.
Overall, I’d say the hitting/defense of 2010 compares favorably to 2005. The bullpen is about the same, save the closer. It’s the rotation that makes up the most difference.
This 2010 lineup would mean a payroll of ~$78M. That gives Wade ~$15M to play with. If he adds a bonafide 3rd starter (Lackey, Bedard, Wolf, Washburn, Duchsherer, Harden), this team is playoff bound IMO.
yeah, the biggest difference
is that the Astros won’t have three pitchers all having CY-type seasons (one pitching what could be legitimately called the best Astros season ever for a pitcher).
But the ‘05 team also had some good offensive players. I’d certainly take 2005 Ensberg over whoever the Astros trot out at third next season.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
Interesting analysis
Why do you have Towles though? Chances are it’ll be Castro, if not opening day than halfway into the season.
Also, why are you matching Bazardo with Clemens on starting pitching? Bazardo might start in 2010, but more likely he will be a bullpen arm. Hopefully we will hire a #3 in the offseason, but if not Norris and Paulino are likely #3 and #4.
Also I don’t see Sampson being our closer. Hawkins (if we keep him on) or Fulchino are more likely.
I don't necessarily agree with your assessment....
Lane of 05 and Pence of 09 are comparable offensive performers. .357 wOBA for Pence and .347 wOBA for Lane. (remember that Lane showed more power than Pence.) Pence had a lot better defensive year though.
Everett of 05 is better than Manzella on defense alone. Everett had a historic defensive season and was one of the most valuable position players on that team. Everett had a WAR of 2.3 wins, with +15 runs on defense. Manzella and Everett may be close offensively, but no way Manzella approaches Everett on defense.
Lamb only had 15 games started in LF; I would consider him a bench player in 05. Burke, Lane, and Palmeiro shared the position. Lee is better, but they provided better depth.
Bruntlett-Kata as a push is ridiculous. Bruntlett was a hugely valuable player off the bench in 05. The current team doesn’t have anyone close to him.
The 2009 team is on pace to score 70 or so runs less than the 2005 team. And the 2010 team will be worse offensively than the 2009 team with Johnson and Manzella replacing Blum/Kepp and Tejada. The 2009 team will end up with 130 or so HRs on the year, while the 2005 team had 161 HRs.
As a minor point, I think you have rose colored glasses if you show Gervacio-Wheeler and Fulchino-Qualls are pushes. Wheeler and Qualls were phenomonal relievers in 2005.
As much as I like Wandy, I don’t think Pettitte-Wandy is a push. In 05, Pettitte had a 2.35 ERA over 222 innings. That was close to Pettitte’s career year.
Hasn't Kata been waived?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 15, 2009 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I suspect Towles/Quintero will be the starter while Castro is at AAA.
I put Bazardo matched up with Clemens because that is where I expect an addition to be brought in. My 2010 roster is based on players currently under control with no free agent additions. Realistically, Norris is a #4 guy. I think they will bring in a free agent to man the #3 spot.
I don’t see Sampson as our closer either; I just don’t see who we currently have signed for next year that could possibly fit that role.
Call me overly-optimistic, but I think Manzella will be a better overall major league player than Everett.
Other than a few clutch moments, what did Bruntlett provide on an everyday basis that Kata didn’t? Kata was a better defender IMO, and Bruntlett’s offensive #’s were below average.
If Bourn and Pence continue to improve and Berkman gets back on track, I think the 2010 offense will be better than than ’05. 2B and 3B will be downgrades, but every other position should be just as good or better.
I’ll grant you that Gervacio/Fulchino aren’t as good as Wheeler/Qualls, but so far Gervacio has been absolutely lights out and Fulchino has shown a lot this season. Their ’09 #s are comparable to Wheeler/Qualls ’05 #s on a per inning basis.
Wandy/Pettite may not be a dead even split, but I think they are comparable.
70 more runs and 31 more HRs comprises a lot of ground to make up. Bruntlett was nicknamed “Superman” by his teammates in 05 for a reason.
?
Not sure where you got those stats, Bruntlett 8 HRs and scored 33 runs with 22 RBIs in ’05.
by Snake Diggity on Sep 15, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
ah, 70 runs from '09 to '10
I see where you’re getting the 70/31 from. Here’s how I’d see it:
Bourn and Pence improve. Matsui, Lee and Berkman bounce back from below-average (by their standards) seasons. Johnson and Manzella don’t completely crumble. Towles/Castro give us more offense than Pudge/Quintero. I think it’s rational to think there’s 70 runs worth in there.
by Snake Diggity on Sep 15, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to mention
a new manager who will manage the game better (resulting in more runs scored) and get more individual production from his players!
by Snake Diggity on Sep 15, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
sorry, didn't explain the first sentence better.
My estimation is that the 08 season will have 70 less Astros runs scored and 31 less home runs than the Astros’ 05 season.
Realistically, to be inarguably better than ’05, they would have to bring back Tejada (3B), Valverde, Hawkins, and add a #3 starter like Lackey. Ah, to have a $120M payroll…
Even then...
The rotation would be worse unless Bud Norris or Felipe Paulino suddenly step and become aces.
Roger Clemens: 1.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP (career year)
Andy Pettite: 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP (career year)
Roy Oswalt: 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (career year unless you count his shorter rookie season)
Nobody on the team is likely to even come close to Clemens’ numbers, and I find it unlikely that Wandy will be able to improve to Pettite’s. Oswalt is now on the downhill slope of his career and will probably post #3 stats. So unless something just clicks for Norris and/or Paulino, that’s where we stand… there is no way the overall pitching will be better.
how the '10 team should be built
hey, this is my first post here, ive been reading for a while
I feel like we should try to contend one last time with lee oswalt and berkman, here is how i would try to contend next year while keeping the payroll down; our young guys that show a lot of promise our still a little ways from the majors so see if we can put a team on the field that can compete for draytons stipulation of 90 mil
1B: the big puma, i have no doubt he will bounce back next year; prjected cost: 14.5 mil
2B: trade kaz, and have divide the playing time between kepp and maysonet; projected cost (for both of them) 2 mil
ss: Tommy Manzela, he has earned his shot and the club could use his defensive prowess; projected cost: .4 mil
3B: send chris johnson back to triple a to work on getting his average up and his strikeouts down, keep blum for another year and sign joe crede as a free agent; projected cost: 5.5 mil
C: keep coste as a backup and sign John Buck who kansas city will nontender; projected cost: 3.5 mil
LF: El Caballo, he is not going anywhere no matter what anyone says; projected cost: 18.5 mil
CF: Michael Bourne, no explanation needed, keep erstad as a backup; projected cost: 4.5 mil
RF: Hunter Pence, backup Andrew Locke; 4.5 mil
total cost for position players: 53.4 mil
Rotation: 1. Roy Oswalt-projected cost: 15 mil
2. Wandy Rodriguez-projected cost: 5 mil
3. Ben Sheets-projected cost: 6 mil
4. Cheapest option between Brett Myers/doug davis/ daniel cabrera/ kevin millwood/randy wolfe/jose contreras/ chris capuano; projected cost (for the cheapest option): 4 mil
5. Bud Norris- projected cost: .4 mil
Bullpen: Alberto Arias-.425, Sammy Gervacio-.4 , Jeff Fulchino-.425, Wesley Wright-.45, Tim Berdak-1.2 mil, Chris Sampson-1 mil, closer- Latroy if he accepts arbitration, i hope he doesnt so i would sign Octavio Dotel for 2 mil (unless somehow wagner wants to make a cheap reutrn) and let him and paulino compete for the job
Total cost for pitching: 38.3 mil
Total cost: 89.80 mil
let me know what you think; could that team contend? would you be excited to see that team next year? is wade smart enough to compile this team? any changes you would make?
I don’t think Matsui is tradeable (hard to trade his salary after a down year).
It’s not totally clear, but I think the Astros may have to bring Moehler back. He has some kind of innings pitched milestone which triggers an option in his contract.
other than those two problem...
your ideas seem reasonable. I assume Felipe Paulino is the 6th starter…a good chance he will be needed with Sheets in the rotation.
Good post
I like that lineup, but, like any roster put together for under $100M, it has it’s risks.
My thoughts:
-Kaz is virtually untradeable unless Houston ate some of his salary (which they would never do).
-I would rather see Towles, Quintero, or Castro in there than John Buck
-Sheets is a VERY high risk signing (not that I disagree with it)
-No way Davis, Millwood or Wolf sign for $4m, and they are the only 3 I would rather have than Paulino/Moehler (but I think if you upped it to $6M you could get one of them)
-Dotel/Wagner are not viable closers anymore (and I don’t think Hawkins is, either)
Overall, I pretty much agree; if the payroll is $95M or more, Houston should be competitive, and with a little luck, make the postseason.
by Snake Diggity on Sep 16, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Bad minor leagues
McLamebrain ruined the farm system with his tight fisted methodology. They draft high school babies so he does not have to pay the price. Those babies take at least 4 years, maybe 5 or 6, before they become significantly productive. You can deduce, hypothesize, hope, pray, beg, borrow, or steal something, anything, that might alter the inevitability of 2010. What you can expect is a long swallow of mediocrity (at best) until at least 2013 or 2014… barring ownership change. A few of us have been waiting nearly 50 years for a world series champ. I’ll have to pass that “wait” on to my children and hope they do not have to pass it on to their’s.
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