Tuesday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

by Evan Hochschild on Sep 1, 2009 6:00 AM CDT in Link Dumps

It must be Michael Bourn month over at Fangraphs, because the site has a feature story about Bourn for the second time in just over a week. The article isn't much different than the analysis that was done concerning the Bourn/Lidge trade of 2007, and again the Ichiro related BABIP comparison. One point is unavoidably true though: he is our best, most cost effective offensive player (including Hunter Pence, IMHO).

Zach Levine states the obvious, but is as usual on point when he posits that neither the Astros offense nor pitching fared particularly well while he was in Austin following the Express. A .555 OPS over the course of a week is definitely lousy, small sample size or not. Hot starts by Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence have subsided, and both are on pace to finish right around where they did in 2008. Especially alarming is the slide of Pence, who looked to be much improved in 2009 but has succumbed to many of his erratic, over swinging, topping the ball all too much ways of 2008.

Lance Berkman didn't hit a homerun in the month of August, and ESPN's Jason Grey speculates that it has something to do with his calf...

David Coleman, over at his blog Minor Musings, profiles Astro farmhand Ross Seaton. While Seaton's below league average strikeout totals worries David a bit, he is generally optimistic about the young righthander:

I think the evidence is that he's getting better, though. His G/F ratio is climbing closer to 1.00 each month and he has thrown better since Lexington started using six starters with the addition of David Duncan to the rotation.

Overall a nice analysis by Mr. Coleman. We Astros fans are lucky to have Farm Stros and Coleman on board to dig through the numbers and provide a more than competent take on our minor league clubs.

Speaking of the minors, CC Hooks outfielder Drew Locke, and SS Wladimir Sutil have been named to the 2009 Texas League Post Season All Star Team. Whew. Based on how long the honor is, I'm sure it's quite a feather to put in one's cap. Locke for one has been on fire all season, hitting .446 with runners in scoring position and two outs since the All Star Break. Congrats to both players.

Unfortunately for Drew, his season has been cut short prematurely, due to a HBP which broke his left hand. Obviously a very disappointing way to finish a stellar summer for Locke. He'll be in a cast for 6-8 weeks. No winter ball most likely for the 26 year old outfielder.

Completing the minor league tour, John Sickles of MinorLeagueBall, reviews his Top 20 Astros Prospects list that he posted before the season began. In general:

-Jordan Lyles after reading as much as I have about prospects is seen as an up and comer for sure. He has all the tools and composure a young pitcher could have in his first year of pro ball.

-Jason Castro has leveled off as a CC Hook, but his defense, game calling and plate discipline should play well in the bigs even if he never develops the sort of power he would need to be an elite offensive catcher.

-Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris have flashed their potential at various times this season, and will have more chances to do so. Like clack has noted since Day 1, Norris' innings have piled up this season, and the team may be better off easing off the gas for the last thirty games or so of the season. Paulino has the kind of solid peripheral stats that cause me to be much more optimistic than pessimistic towards his development. Note the high BABIP, high HR/FB, etc. He hasn't gotten many breaks, and has shown that he still needs time to develop. He has a really good slider, and if he refines that fastball, look out.

-Sammy Gervacio has done well as a major leaguer, while Chia Jen Lo has progressed nicely as a CC Hook.

Towards the bottom end of the system, there are a lot of raw, athlete types, and the 2009 draft class gets the early seal of approval from Sickles and the commenters on his article. It will be fun to watch some of these guys in the AFL, that's for sure.

Speculation doesn't become us, I hope, but here is Deadspin's take on the Pitchtipgate. The phrase "clubhouse McCarthyism" is a keeper for sure.

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Comments

So. . . .

Did you get any sleep last night? And do please share this mystery energy drink—so we can avoid it!

by Danyah on Sep 1, 2009 6:27 AM CDT reply actions

4.5 hours, roughly

i literally tried counting sheep. then, when that didn’t work i would just do random mental math, a la: 4 × 5 = 20- 11 = 9, the square root of 9 is three x 15, etc…that actually worked. i set my alarm usually for 5:30ish to wake up and get my run in before class in the morning, and today i woke up without a problem.

the mystery energy drink i believe is a mountain dew inspired “amp energy” drink. the flavor was berry something- but the can was this metal blue that caught my eye like i was an infant on speed…and its not like i dont drink caffeine, either. it was definitely bad news bears…

by Evan Hochschild on Sep 1, 2009 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Sounds like finals week, but in August

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Sep 1, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions

Miscellaneous

Michael Bourn is also the Astros “best, most cost effective Defensive player.”

How come we never hear about Wladimir Sutil. Any chance he makes the jump to the Astros in 2010?

My appreciation for Farm Stros, too.

It was a nice win last night

Hunter Pence fell apart about the time he was named to the NL AllStar team. It must have played with this mind and he’s not straight yet (at the plate anyway)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 1, 2009 9:24 AM CDT reply actions

The Deadspin take on the Tejada' allegations...

rings true to me. As I said in a previous post, the whole pitch tipping claim has the feel of xenophobia on the part of American players. As Deadspin points out, there is a submerged unfair stereotyping of Carribean players in baseball as players who are more loyal to each other than the team. (Remember when Sosa hit a HR off Lima and everyone jumped to the conclusion that Lima must have “given” the HR to Sosa?) Claims of pitch tipping strike me as something like an urban myth (players say they have never seem or heard of it happening, but they know it happens…) Marginal relief pitchers who feel like they didn’t get the support they needed can become paranoid and blame someone who fits the scapegoat profile.

by clack on Sep 1, 2009 9:42 AM CDT reply actions

David Coleman's analysis of Ross Seaton is excellent

I really admire when someone can take the stats and use them to tell a story. It’s an underdeveloped skill in many corners of the baseball writing world.

One thing I’d like to add, though, is that stats at A-level can’t tell the whole story because they don’t tell you what skills/pitches the player is developing and whether he’s making any strides. I’d rather have the pitcher with lackluster stats who added a changeup to his arsenal in A-ball than a pitcher who got excellent strikeout numbers at the same level just by using his fastball.

In addition to getting used to the speed of the pro game, Seaton’s been trying to develop his secondary pitches in Lexington. According to Lexington pitching coach (and former farmstro):

"For the first half of the season he was trying to throw a curveball, and we were just trying to stay with one breaking ball," Lexington pitching coach Travis Driskill said. "He gave it an honest effort and it didn’t turn out to be what we had hoped. So right around the all-star break we started going with that slider and it’s been a big pitch for him.

"Even while he’s been getting that working, his curveball has actually improved also. He’s figuring out the difference between the two pitches, so he doesn’t try to make it a slurve like what his curveball seemed to be early on—now he’s getting that 12-6 rotation with it, and then that slider has that nice little tilt that we look for."

by AstroAndy on Sep 1, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions

An example of your point (in an opposite sort of way) is Brad James. He was highly touted by the Astros and put up good Ks and runs allowed results in A ball. But he was only relying on his good sinker. I recall reading quotes from other teams’ scouts two years ago who said they weren’t sold on James because he just threw his best pitch, which is good enough to dominate A level players, but didn’t develop his secondary pitches. Those scouts suggested that this might allow the Astros to advance him quickly but that it would be a disservice when he got to higher levels without those secondary pitches. When James got to AA, he found the going a lot tougher.

by clack on Sep 1, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions

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