Optimizing the Astros Lineup by THE BOOK: Season Update
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 6, 2009 6:45 PM CDT
in Stat Geeky
9 comments
Before the season started, SkyKalkmen at BtB got many of us thinking about how the Astros could maximize their offensive talent. At the time, I went through the likely Astros regulars and looked at their PECOTA, ZIPS, and CHONE projections and made my best guess at how to get the most from our collection of relatively high SLG to low OBP guys that all three systems projected.
It's August now, and we know enough about the actual performance of the Astros to move away from the projections and go ahead and look what they've actually produced and how Cecil Cooper could best harness that when constructing his lineup card. While this optimized lineup will have to wait for Lance Berkman to return from the DL, it's some food for thought for an evening without baseball...right?
Leading Off: Michael Bourn
Here's what we're actually looking for in a lead off hitter:
The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.
The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.
When I did this in early April, Hunter Pence was slated as our lead off guy, but Michael Bourn has defied every projection system (and likely our own) expectations. With the third high OBP on the team at .360, Bourn really is the ideal lead off hitter.
Batting Second: Lance Berkman
The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.
The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?
As I said in April, Lance is the ideal two hole hitter. He leads the Astros in both OBP, SLG, ISO, wOBA...he's our best hitter—period.
In the three hole: Miguel Tejada
The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.
The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.
Miggy is having a phenomenal season in terms of collecting hits, but he's offensive numbers, overall, lead a lot to be desired. With that in mind, he finds himself in the three hole, where his skill set will be maximized and not wasted.
Batting Clean-up: Carlos Lee
The old-school book says to put your big power bat here, probably a guy with a low batting average, who will hit the big multi-run homeruns.
The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power.
Carlos Lee feels pretty self-explanatory here: second best hitter, lower OBP than Lance...
Batting Fifth: Hunter Pence
The three and five hole were tough decisions for me to make because of the wonkiness of Miguel Tejada this year, but after my agonizing, I feel confident that as of August 6th, 2009, the Astros actually have five players who make sense filling out the first five spots of the optimized lineup from The Book.
The old-school book says the number five guy is a wannabe cleanup hitter.
The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball.
Hunter Pence is Carlos Lee, with less HR. So he's our wannabe clean up hitter.
Six, Seven, Eight, and Nine:
Even though the Astros have two full-time platoons operating, it actually works out such that it doesn't matter whether the opposing pitcher is left-handed or right-handed, or whether Q or Pudge are behind the plate either. The Je(geo)ff's are eerily similar hitters in 2009 and Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez are both just equally bad.
So here's how the rest of the lineup should shake out:
7. Kazuo Matsui
8. Humberto Quintero/Ivan Rodriguez
9) Pitcher du Jour
A caveat could be made that Mike Hampton (and at this point even Roy Oswalt) should bat eight on the days that he toes the mound, but as Sky discussed in his original piece, the effect of having two "lead-off" hitters is negligible over the course of a full season. However, whatever Cecil Cooper does with the pitcher, what's amazing is how close our actual lineup is to the optimized one. Do we have to start giving kudos to Coop now?
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I have come to the conclusion that the GIDP effect of the Astros’ hitter is an overwhelming obstacle for the offense. The Book doesn’t really address this issue. Maybe for most offenses, it’s not a big deal. But I think it is for the Astros.
Unfortunately, I’m not quite sure how to construct the batting order in order to minimize DPs. The top tier of GIDP candidates is Tejada, Lee, Pence, and Pudge. All 4 guys are in the top 20 ML GIDP players. Blum and Keppinger are also DP candidates. I think Tejada should bat No. 2 because he is the worst DP candidate and with Bourn ahead of him, the speediest runner on base might help him avoid the DP. I wonder if putting Lee at the 3 spot and Berkman, who is a bit more of a flyball hitter, in the 4 spot would help? Any other ideas to deal with this issue?
by clack on Aug 6, 2009 7:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that the GIDP-effect is a certainly an obstacle
But at the same time, I don’t think there’s a way to account for both the GIDP potential and the true talent level of the hitters. Tejada, according to THE BOOK, isn’t going to be too big of a hamper in the 3-hold. But Lee and Pence are the true stumbling blocks. I thought about the GIDP issue, but decided that at the end of the day, it probably still holds that we should think about lineups in terms of OBP, SLG, and wOBA.
Although maybe we need a wOBA that takes into account the effect of GIDP…then we’d be cookin’.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Aug 6, 2009 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Double Plays
Just a thought but an occasional bunt would draw the infielders in beyond the easy DP range. Watch when Lee comes to the plate, the infielders are all playing shallow outfield positions and with Lee’s propensity for being slow makes him a perfect double play guy. But a bunt every once in awhile draws the infield in and make it easier to get the ball out of the infield, provided that Lee hustles every other blue moon. Make the defense play a little more honestly.
by Professional Assassin on Aug 6, 2009 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
being slow=not hustling
by Professional Assassin on Aug 6, 2009 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's an interesting idea
If the Astros bunted more (and, importantly, made it known that even guys like Carlos or Tejada was willing to try) they’d definitely change their chances of getting a hit in other plate appearances.
The difficulty is bunting enough times that it significantly improve their chances, and not bunting so often that the outs they make from the strategy outweigh the hits they gain from the changed infield. (It’s a really difficult problem, but it reminds me of the problem basketball teams have in establishing their non-stars as offensive threats).
And, of course, there’s the chance that the Astros’ opponents simply ignore the strategy, figuring that they’ll probably be able to throw out Tejada/Lee/Pudge/whoever anyways.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Aug 7, 2009 12:20 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
wOBA??
Would someone tell me what wOBA means.
by Professional Assassin on Aug 6, 2009 10:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Weighted On Base Average
basically, it’s a version of on base percentage/average that values hitting differently.
The key difference between wOBA and similar stats (OPS, for instance) is that it assigns specific values to types of hits. So, a homer is worth more than four singles, for instance. But four singles is worth more than two doubles, because getting on base is much more important than hitting for power.
Fangraphs.com keeps track of it, and they have a good article on it here.
For a practical example, let’s look at Ryan Ludwick versus Hanley Ramirez. Ludwick had a .966 OPS versus a .940 OPS for Ramirez – not a huge difference, but one most people would consider significant. If you put a lot of stock in OPS, you’d probably argue that Ludwick had a better offensive season.
However, Ramirez actually had a slightly higher wOBA, .403 to .401. This is due to the fact that Ramirez posted a .400/.540 line compared to Ludwick’s .375/.591 mark. Ramirez’s 25 point advantage in OBP was slightly more valuable than Ludwick’s 51 point advantage in SLG, and wOBA reflects this.
There are other, similar stats out there that do the same thing, but there are typically subtle differences. EQA, for instance, looks at stolen bases, as well.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Aug 7, 2009 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simply put
When you look at wOBA numbers throughout the book, just think OBP, and you’ll be fine. In other words, an average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300.
by timmy_ on Aug 7, 2009 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Job, Coop!!!
I will hang in there with Coop until he shits the bed – otherwise he is doing just fine.
by Cactus Jack Sancho on Aug 7, 2009 1:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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