2010 Free Agents...
by Robertpz on Aug 29, 2009 9:36 AM CDT
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I think we all agree that if we keep & slide Tejada to 3rd, our most glaring need (besides dumping Kaz's contract at 2nd) will be SS & a #3 pitcher. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts (some players have been traded since first post), here are the potential free agents in 2010 at those positions:
Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera OAK
Bobby Crosby OAK
Adam Everett DET
Alex Gonzalez * CIN
Khalil Greene STL
John McDonald TOR
Marco Scutaro TOR
Miguel Tejada HOU
Jack Wilson * PIT
Starting Pitchers
Brandon Backe HOU
Miguel Batista SEA
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA
Daniel Cabrera WAS
Bartolo Colon CWS
Jose Contreras CWS
Doug Davis ARZ
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Adam Eaton BAL
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Jon Garland * ARZ
Tom Glavine ATL
Mike Hampton HOU
Rich Harden CHC
Tim Hudson * ATL
Randy Johnson SF
John Lackey LAA
Cliff Lee * CLE
Braden Looper * MIL
Jason Marquis CHC
Kevin Millwood * TEX
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * TEX
Carl Pavano CLE
Brad Penny BOS
Odalis Perez WAS
Andy Pettitte NYY
Joel Pineiro STL
Sidney Ponson KC
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz BOS
Jarrod Washburn SEA
Brandon Webb * ARZ
Todd Wellemeyer STL
The rest can be looked at here: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/2010-free-agents.html
I think there are some affordable options in here to fill the gaps in 2010 while some of the up-and-comers in those positions continue to cut their teeth in AAA. I like Scutaro (but he is a Type A Free Agent meaning picks) as a SS. He can play other positions as well, but his consistency with his bat would be an upgrade to the IF. Anyway, I was just trying to follow up on HLP's post on 2009 free agents who are excelling this season for not that much money. I will let everyone else hash out their thoughts on how we can try and improve an extremely average Astros team...
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If you want to go “extreme defense” and no offense, you might consider Manzella, and hope his defense is as advertised. As far as free agent shortstops, my preference would be Marco Scutaro. He combines twof things the Astros need: good defense and on base ability. If Jack Wilson would sign a discounted contract to come back to his hometown, I would consider him too. He fits the “extreme defense” category. In fact, he is currently the best defensive player at short. And, as a Pirate, he seemed to make better use of the Crawford Boxes than most any other non-slugger (on an opposing team).
As for the pitchers, it depends on what McLane is willing to spend. The best pitchers on that list, Beckett and Lee, will have options picked up and won’t be available. Pettitte is likely to re-sign with NY. And the remaining pickings aren’t that great. I like Odalis Perez as a bargain basement signing. Perez sat out this year after refusing to honor his Nats’ contract, and I suspect he was blackballed by GMs after the Nats DFA’d him. Doug Davis should be relatively cheap and would be a decent Wolf-type signing. Piniero would be an OK signing, but he is likely to be overpriced based on a career year. If Contreras would sign a cheap contract, he might have success in the NL (just a hunch).
Interestingly
As of right now, Marco Scutaro is projected to be a type A free agent and would cost us a draft pick if the Blue Jays offered him arbitration and he declined.
That being said, we may be a little bit more free to go after a Type A free agent this offseason.
We may be offering arbitration to some of our free agents, first of all. But more importantly, we’re already in the bottom half of teams when it comes to win percentage, which means our first round pick would be protected and we’d lose our second round pick by signing a type A free agent who has been offered arbitration and declined.
Lackey
would be a great addition to the Astros staff if they are willing to make him an offer. He’s been a consistent winner and he’ll be 31 this offseason, so should still have a few good years left. He’s probably a Type A free agent, but if the Astros finish in the bottom 15 teams, I believe their first round pick is protected. All the other pitchers on that list seem pretty uninspiring.
I’d be for handing the starting SS job to Manzella/Keppinger and resigning Miggy for 3rd.
Lackey scares me.
He probably will want ace type money. He hasn’t had a great year with the Angels, and his innings are down this season. He has been on the DL with arm problems both this season and last season. The combination of those things makes me wary.
I'd be happy with Tim Hudson
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 29, 2009 7:27 PM CDT reply actions
He's scheduled to start in the next few days
I’m not objective. I’ve followed Tim Hudson’s career since he was in Midland ,then to Vancouver, then to Oakland and Atlanta. (I knew his wife)
I wanted him to leave Oakland and pitch for Houston since he is a good batter (or was) and I thought that woud buy him a few games in the NL II understiid why he signed with Atlanta. He’s stay at Atlanta has not been as exciting as his Oakland days.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 29, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions
He starts Monday
— Braves pitcher Tim Hudson will make his first big league appearance in more than a year on Monday, replacing Kenshin Kawakami for a start against the Florida Marlins.
Hudson was the ace of the Atlanta staff before his season-ending elbow ligament-replacement surgery on Aug. 8, 2008. Now, nearly 13 months later and after more than a month of rehab starts in the minors, the right-hander is set to rejoin a rotation that is already one of the strongest in the big leagues.
Hudson was 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA when he blew out his elbow. He could become a free agent after this season.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 29, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Hudson's rehab results
Hudson went 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six rehab starts. He walked four and struck out 14 in 23-1/3 innings. He said he felt ready after his last start for Gwinnett because his fastball command had improved.
"I feel like things are zeroed in where they need to be," Hudson said.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 29, 2009 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I kinda like the idea of Justin Duchscherer or Kelvim Escobar
They both have their DL issues but I think they’re both risks worth taking. They won’t be too expensive, especially Duchscherer. Duchscherer we could sign to a low base high incentive contract which would be great. I don’t like the idea of taking on guys with injury filled pasts but I think that’s our best option for next year. We wouldn’t be favorites to win the division even if we got Lackey so I think we should play the boom or bust angle. Get someone cheaper who has the potential to give the same return as a Lackey type and then a SS with a decent OBP and I’m very happy. I don’t think we should or will make any BIG moves this offseason. I think 2011 is the year. Castro will be up and in stride, the big money players on our team should still be playing well, and most of all we should have a few prospects up and making an impact by the all-star break if not sooner.
Duchscherer was diagnosed with clinical depression and recently announced he would quit playing baseball until he overcomes his illness. What that means for his availability next year….I have no idea.
You think he's depressed now?...
wait until he plays with Kaz Matsui! Sorry, I just couldn’t pass up on the shot at Kaz nor the customary rimshot that follows such a clever dig! :)
Leap of faith
If they really wanted to go for something cheap and willing to take a risk, they could always go for Ben Sheets. Its totally up in the air, so it could go either way. I do not know how to feel about it, but it is a possibility.
Sheets is likely to be a risk
but I doubt he’ll be cheap.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
agreed
hes gonna be a pricey riskk…
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Aug 30, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Top priority definitely needs to be starting pitching.
Should be able to free up quite a bit of payroll if we dump all these unproductive bench veterans and guys who have been injured all season, and call up some guys from AA and AAA to take their roster spots. Joel Pineiro would be my #1 choice in that regard, even if he’s expensive. They haven’t been afraid to spend big on sluggers, but if you’re going to do that, it should be on starting pitching first and foremost. Other than that, I would suggest taking a risk and simply starting Manzella at SS for his defense. It would also be fantastic if we could pick up a second baseman along the lines of Orlando Hudson, but I know that’s very unlikely given payroll strictures.
Actually, come to think of it
I don’t like Keppinger’s defense, but if they can get him to work on that extensively during the offseason and spring training, I would rather seem him at 2nd every day than Matsui. I like his at bat in the 2 hole, he has the ability to be patient and take pitches and doesn’t strike out much. Regardless, Kaz needs to be on the bench, big contract or not.
i like, i like
first day on the blog, and you’re already taking shots at kaz….you’ll fit in well here
by Evan Hochschild on Sep 1, 2009 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Poor Kaz
He’s a solid fielder.
His bat is too weak (3000 hits or no) and he is injury prone; and he doesn’t seem to fit in socially with the rest of the “guys.” His worst flaw, however, is he is paid too much, but that doesn’t affect his play on the field.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 1, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions
yeah, I agree with you, Joe.
Although people blame Kaz, they don’t recognize that he is an excellent defensive player. Almost anyone who replaces him will pull the Astros’ defense down a few notches. A replacement, like Keppinger, is also likely to depress the already bad Astros’ base running even more. He is paid too much for what he produced this year, but he performed very well last year. Next year will be kind of a decisive year for whether he was a bad signing. If Kaz can continue good defense and put up offensive rate stats like last year, it will be an OK signing. Unfortunately, given his age and injury prone nature, I’m not optimistic that he will happen, though. If Kaz’s offense doesn’t show improvement, I think he may have to be relegated to a utility player.
I don’t know that Kaz doesn’t fit in with other players. I’m sure it would help if the Astros had other Japanese players on the roster. But it seems like the other players like Kaz a lot. I kind of get a kick out of the way that Tejada and Kaz throw the spotlight back and forth to each other.
Maybe I see Kaz as the "quiet" player
and assume he is not a joiner -
My mistake
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 1, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Well..
Let’s not get our hopes up. I know I read somewhere at the Houston Chronicle site that Drayton wants the payroll around $90M this coming year. I have a sinking feeling that our awesome farm system is going to fill up some holes. Sometimes it’s nice to be wrong..
So he wants to spend less then he did this year? Yet will wonder why the ’Stros are not contending again.
If you want Drayton to spend more money, then you need to buy more season tickets.
Drayton, like many major league baseball owners, treats his club as a self-sustaining business. Player payroll is set based on the revenue the team brings in. Most teams spend around 45%-50% of the previous year’s revenue on the following year’s team. Drayton is on the high end of things, spending 57% of the previous year’s revenue to put the 2009 Astros on the field ($111M on payroll, $194M brought in).
The reason the Yankees can spend so much money on free agents is because they have hardcore fans that buy season tickets year in and year out, regardless of the team’s chances. If you want Drayton to spend like the Yankees, you’ve got to do your part and buy season tickets and merchandise like Yankees fans do. To use a tired, cliche’d old saying, If you point the finger at Drayton for being cheap, you’ve got three fingers pointing right back at yourself.
It's not the size of the payroll that bothers me
It’s the fact that it isn’t being spent wisely. Maybe this isn’t Drayton’s fault directly, but somehow, I think it is. 100/6 on an elite starting pitcher I could understand. On a good but not great left fielder? Just plain stupid. Drayton needs to understand that he has handicapped the team with poor decisionmaking, and that if he wants the team to win (and the extra revenue that would bring), he will need to compensate for his mistakes by increasing the size of the payroll. Otherwise, he should admit that he’s built a loser, start over, and rebuild.
The way I see it
there are three basic options.
1- Actual rebuilding. Go to Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, and I guess Matsui and try hard to get them to waive their no-trade clauses, even though Lee and Berkman have said no in the past. Off the top of my head, Berkman to the Rangers might work. Oswalt would be attractive to really any contender with cash- NYY, Boston, Philly, LAD, LAA, maybe even the Mets would work. If we were to take on thirty to fifty percent of Lee’s salary, then AL teams in search of a LF/DH would take the offensive production and durability in a second despite the defense and (reduced) salary burden.
2- Raise payroll significantly via free agency and trade market to add two reliable starters, a third baseman who gets on base, and one or two relievers. Maybe there just isn’t the money to do this, maybe there is, maybe there is only if we get out from under Lee’s salary via trade.
3- Patchwork, like 09. Gamble in free agency, bring up anyone who looks like they’re remotely ready, and pray.
"As a defensive player, Carlos Lee is a great hitter"- Richard Justice
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