Astros Top 20 Prospects
by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2009 1:09 PM CDT
15 comments
Astros Top 20 prospects
I was a little bored last night and since the Astros season ended during this awful road trip, I thought it would be interesting to see where farm system is doing. Here is my top 20.
1. Jason Castro, C
Astros top prospect doing well at AA. However, team shouldn't rush him too quickly and seeing how J.R. Towles development played out (or lack thereof), they won't.
2. Jordan Lyles, RHP
Astros top pitching prospect destroying Low-A hitting with impressive projectible stuff. Only 18 years old. Team should be careful to limit his innings. 2nd starter ability.
3. Bud Norris, RHP
PCL ERA leader doing well so far for the big league team. Lack of size and command issues limit his long-term potential. 3rd starter ability or future closer.
4. Ross Seaton, RHP
Local pitcher doing well at Low-A. Similar to Lyles but not striking out as many hitters. Only 19 years old. Astros fans will keep tabs on his development very closely.
5. Jiovanni Mier, SS
2009 1st round pick has started professional career well. Very good defensively. Long term question will be how well he hits.
6. Yorman Bazardo, RHP
Technically not a prospect but minor league free agent has turned his career around after disastrous 2008 season at IL. Lack of strikeouts and delivery issues will always concern me. Could be 4th starter.
7. J.B. Shuck, OF
Lead off hitter doing very well at Lancaster (420 OBP%). Only real weakness is lack of power. Rated higher than any other Lancaster hitter because in belief that his game will translate better beyond Lancaster's hitter environment.
8. Sammy Gervacio, RHP
Has had up and down season at AAA, but weird delivery should fool hitters for a while. Future set-up man.
9. Chia Jen Lo, RHP
Korean pitcher has handled 1st professional season well at AA. Future set-up man.
10. Polin Trinidad, LHP
Started well at AA, struggled a bit at AAA, but command remains strong. Probable career as long inning relief man.
11. Dallas Keuchel, LHP
2009 8th round pick has start professional career nicely. Advanced pitcher that could move through the system quickly.
12. Brian Bogusevic, OF
Pitcher turned hitter hasn't hit as much this year at AAA. Still inexperienced in terms of hitting. Lack of power probably limits him to 4th outfielder.
13. Jay Austin, OF
18-year old holding his own at Lexington. Nice speed, okay defense, but lack of patience. Development will take time.
14. Jon Gaston, OF
2009 Minor league home run leader. However, too many strikeouts, lack of size and Lancasters hitter-friendly environment worry me. Must see AA numbers.
15. Koby Clemens, 3B
Great offensive season at Lancaster but defensive issues and inflated numbers hurt his stock. Must see AA numbers.
16. Tanner Bushue, RHP
2009 2nd round pick started very well professionally and has high upside, but hasn't pitched recently. Will take time to develop.
17. Chris Johnson, 3B
Hasn't translated his tools into skills at AAA, still young enough to improve, but I'm not optimistic.
18. Fernando Abad, LHP
One of the only pitchers doing well at Lancaster, his superb control stands out (7BB in 70+ innings)
19. T.J. Steele, OF
Injured for much of the sesason, Steele is hitting well, but contact issues will hold him back.
20. Daniel Meszaros, RHP
2008 48th round pick holding his own at AA. Future reliever.
Tell me what you think.
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Generally, I don’t disagree with your assessment of Norris. But size limits his potential? He looks plenty big to me.
I wouldn’t rate Bazardo that high on a prospect list. So far in his career, he has been a AAAA player who doesn’t K enough batters. I just don’t see him rating highly on a prospect list. That’s not to say that he might not make it as a No. 5 starter or long reliever in the majors.
I might put Dydaliwicz in the second half of the list. I would like to see both Gaston and Koby accelerated to AA or AAA. You may be right that they rate that low on the list, but I’m not convinced that they might be better than that and perhaps should rate higher.
by clack on Aug 16, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Dyadliewicz/Bazardo
With Dyadliewicz, I haven’t read much on him so far and since he’s only pitched like 80 innings in Low A, his development time will probably be longer that Seaton, Lyles.
With Bazardo, he’s barely pitched in the majors like 30 innings total and with over 400 innings in AAA, he should be given an opportunity to pitch in the rotation sooner or later
by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2009 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dydaliwicz was injured for a portion of the season. Arguably, he was pitching better than lyles before his injury
by Subber10 on Aug 16, 2009 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
improved system
Discussing whether or not he should make the top 20 makes me believe the farm is improving a little bit
by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2009 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dydalawicz success was so heavily based off the obscene BABIP he was posting through his first few starts. He’s seemed to regress towards the mean since then, and I’m not too high on him. Henry Villar is another guy who has impressed me though. I like the strikeout totals. Anybody know anything more about him?
by seanbergmanrules on Aug 17, 2009 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with most of you assessment. You can nit-pick about whether you think someone should be higher or lower once you get past the top players but I think your top 4 or 5 are pretty solid.
My only problem is when you list the pitchers potential as “2nd starter ability … 3rd starter” and so on. Especially with the younger players (specifically Lyles). Bazardo has been around a little longer and has not succeeded in the past so we have a better understanding of what he might bring. But Lyles has only been a pro for a year and a half and has been very successful. How do any of us know that he only has 2nd starter ability? What has he shown so far that makes him lack being an Ace.
It’s a small thing and (like I said) I agree with most of your list. I just don’t get why you limit our prospects potential. Especially the young one’s
by Rhombus67 on Aug 16, 2009 6:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What makes me nervous
is, based on the evaluations, maybe 8 or 9 will make significant contributions at the major league level. That’s too few for an entire minor league system.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 16, 2009 8:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually that number could be less because the attrition rate in the minors is so high. People get injured, they’re ineffective at the higher levels, they get traded, and so on. That’s why depth in the system is so vital to the success of the organization and that’s partially why, IMO, that the big league team is struggling right now.
by rjg6891 on Aug 16, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
J.R. Towles
He may not be the future catcher for the Astros, but I’d still consider him a top 20 prospect, especially with the lack of depth in the minor league system. He hasn’t been given a fair shake at the major league level, and I consider him a better option than Quintero as a backup catcher.
by timmy_ on Aug 17, 2009 8:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree 100%. He is still hitting well in AAA, and was never given the opportunity to adjust that Bourn was. I’m all for giving Castro another year of development and seeing what Towles can do next year.
by seanbergmanrules on Aug 17, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
Chia Jen Lo isn’t Korean. He’s Taiwanese.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Aug 17, 2009 9:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
what about Bono or Greenwalt?
Bono started the LoA all-star game and Greenwalt has been pitching pretty well too in LoA
by GhostOfGlennDavis on Aug 20, 2009 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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