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Trade Review: Jose Valverde

Every now and then, I think back on a trade the Astros made in the past few years and it either makes me angry, sad or depressed. To torture myself more, sometimes I comb through the archives to come up with an analysis on exactly how badly a particular trade hurt. This is the first in what may become a recurring series of Trade Reviews. First up, the December 14, 2007 trade of Chris Burke, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls for Jose 'El Papa Grande' Valverde.

I want to be up front about this. I like Valverde. I like the nickname, I like his antics on the mound and I like his stuff. I think he's a good closer. He helps the Astros win games, which is all you want. What bothers me about this swap is how much we gave up for a ninth-inning pitcher on a team that had just a marginal chance of making the playoffs. So, what did we give up?

  • Chad Qualls, 30-year old right-hander, drafted in the second round in 2000 out of the University of Nevada, Reno. Pitched in 119 1/3 innings in two seasons, striking out 111 while walking 23 and earning 30 saves with an ERA of 3.16.
  • Juan Gutierrez, 25-year old right-hander from the Dominican Republic, signed in 2000. Pitched in the minors in 2008, but has thrown 51 2/3 innings in 46 games this season, striking out 53 while walking 25 with a 4.53 ERA.
  • Chris Burke, 29-year old middle infielder, drafted 10th overall in 2000 out of Tennessee. Got 199 plate appearances in 2008 with Arizona and had a line of .194/.310/.273. Was released in the off-season and signed with San Diego.

What did El Papa Grande do? In 105 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, Valverde has picked up 59 saves, striking out 120 while walking 35 with an ERA of 3.16. That may look familiar, since it's exactly the same ERA Qualls had in more innings. Of course, Valverde suffers because he lost time in 2009 to an injury, but let's look closer at the player values.

Valverde earned 4.7 million in 2008 and will earn 8 million in 2009. After this season, he is a free agent and can sign with any team he wishes. Qualls earned 1.31 milllion in 2008 and 2.53 million in 2009 and still has one year of abitration left. Burke earned 955,000 in 2008 and Gutierrez is earning 401,000 in 2009. That's 5.2 million in salary going out the door and 12.7 million in salary being added to a team that was already top-heavy with a few big contracts. To look at it from another angle, that's eight seasons of pitching the Astros traded away for two seasons of a closer.

But, you say, those 59 saves Valverde picked up have to be valuable. Who would have closed if he had not been acquired? Fan Graphs has assigned a monetary value based on player performance for each guy involved in the trade, so we can break this down even further. Valverde has been worth 4.6 million over the past two seasons, while Qualls has been worth 14.6 million and Gutierrez worth 5.4 million. Even if you count the negative 100,000 Burke was worth in 2008, the Astros still handed away some very valuable seasons of bullpen help that would have cost them less than they are paying for now.

Another knock on Qualls when he was with the Astros is that he gave up too many home runs. In a more hitter friendly park than Minute Maid, Qualls has given up eight home runs in the past two seasons while Valverde has given up 15. The only significant difference between the two is that Valverde can miss more bats, giving him a higher strikeout total. Granted, we don't know if Gutierrez will pan out past this season, but he was one of the top 30 Astros prospects in 2007. Qualls also was a playoff-tested reliever heading into the 2008 season, so he could have been counted on to close as well.

This trade was a classic over-reaction by the new General Manager Ed Wade, hired three months before this move. Wade has made some good pickups in LaTroy Hawkins, Alberto Arias and Darin Erstad, but whiffing on Valverde left him tied up financially and unable to make any significant moves last winter and this summer. Some GMs realize you can't give up multiple seasons of cheap players for expensive veterans; I just wish the Astros could get with the program.

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Wow you really do like to torture yourself lol.

Sorry but had to say it. Despite the numbers I think this trade has worked out rather well in comparison to past Astros trades (see: almost any Purpura move). We got something out of this unlike Jason Jennings and well I’ll refrain from giving more examples. We’re practically fortunate that we got rid of Burke when we did, Juan Gutierrez was never and will never turn into a great player, and as for Qualls as strange as it sounds I don’t think he would’ve been able to match what Valverde did and what he brought to the Astros in terms of energy and automatically accepted confidence in him from the time he got to Houston. I don’t mind the Valverde trade the least.
As for trades to torture yourself over or trades not made to torture yourself over I do remember an article written by Jason Stark, Peter Gammons or another good credible ESPN reporter a long time back mentioning that we rejected a trade proposal made to us by the Rangers which would have landed us Alfonso Soriano. Care to guess what we would’ve given up? How about Brandon Backe and Chris Burke! I kid you not! This was during the offseason right after Burke hit THE HOME RUN and Backe looked to be the next best thing in the playoffs I believe. Now that is one to hit your head against the wall over.

by Astrosws20 on Aug 11, 2009 11:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I liked the trade at the time. I can’t deny it, because I said so at the time. Chad Qualls has succeeded in the closer role. Good for him, but there was considerable doubt that he could succeed in that role at the time of the trade. I doubted that he could move up from the set up role, based on his past experience choking in some big situations (like the grand slam he gave up in game 2 of the world series.) Qualls had a sinker which was very susceptible to the HR if it wasn’t sinking. Qualls was a good set up reliever, but totally unproven as a closer…and Arizona didn’t even use him as their closer during 08. What I liked about the trade at the time was that Valverde had one more year of team control than Fuentes, who the Astros probably would have traded for otherwise.

At the time, my biggest regret was trading Gutierrez, because I thought he had potential as a No. 4 or 5 starter. However, he wasn’t successful in 08, and his future is more likely as a reliever.

I think it is useful to look at the Valverde trade as an extension of the Lidge trade (particularly if one felt that it was too risky to hand the closer job to Qualls). I can understand an argument that the Lidge trade was a bad deal, given the great season Lidge had in 08. I think that the merits of the Bourn-Lidge texchange are still uncertain. But, in the context of both trades, Wade succeeded in replacing Lidge with a closer of similar quality who was considerably less expensive for the 08 and 09 season.

I don’t accept the idea that the Astros’ chances were too marginal justify a closer in 08, given that the team ended up with 86 wins and probably would have been better than that without Hurricane Ike. I think Valverde’s performances down the stretch were one of the reasons that the Astros won so many close games in 08, allowing the team to outperform its Pythagorean record.

by clack on Aug 12, 2009 4:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

an additional point...

Qualls has experienced elbow problems this season in Arizona. I don’t wish anything bad for him. But I would view him as an injury risk going forward in future seasons.

by clack on Aug 12, 2009 4:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

actually something I forgot to state above is that Qualls had the closer role in 08 with the DBacks

after Brandon Lyons or whoever was closing blew some saves. Qualls held the job for like a week or two I think after blowing a couple saves and that is why I am happy with the trade. It seems Chad wasn’t ready for the role last year but after some work he became successful

by Astrosws20 on Aug 12, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting read from top to bottom

The only time I cringed was when Fuentes was mentioned – he was terrible at the time (even though an All Star – amazing)

I recall the worry about Valverde was that he would swing from a great year to a terrible year, and 2008 was predicted to be a terrible year. But he stabilized the closer situation that year (not so much this year,where he seems to be a walk and homerun away at any time). Also some players (i.e. Berkman) had issues with Valverde’s hi-jinks. but those quickly dissolved.

I regretted losing Qualls at the time. But Valverde earned his keep.

I think this was one of those trades that turned out positive for both teams- which is the way I wish they all would.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 12, 2009 8:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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