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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Tuesday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

There's a lot of news on the Astro injury front. Roy O will make his return to the rotation today after experiencing no pain in his bullpen session on Sunday. Which is awesome because another starting pitcher, Mike Hampton, has suffered a pretty significant injury. A meniscus tear isn't like an ACL tear, but it is painful, and for someone who was struggling when he was healthy, this could set Mike back even more. Yorman Bazardo will pitch in Hampton's stead on Thursday if he can't make a go of it. On the opposite end of the injury spectrum, both Lance Berkman and LaTroy Hawkins expect to be activated from the DL before the Florida series is over.

On a semi-miraculous note, Aaron Boone has begun making his rehab starts in Corpus Christi, and thinks he should be ready to roll by September 1. Forget baseball- this is tremendous news for a man who had open heart surgery just four months ago. Congratulations on the speedy recovery, Aaron.

Richard Justice points out that the Astros have to go 35-16 the rest of the way to reach Cecil Cooper's predicted 90 wins. I'm gonna go out on a short limb and say it's not gonna happen. On a more frustrating side of things, Drayton McLane has apparently gone mad:

On Friday, Drayton McLane even mentioned the possibility of bringing Pudge back for the 2010 season.

 Why, oh why, oh why? Even if Jason Castro isn't ready (and he probably won't be), there has to be a better option. Pudge has been rode hard and been put up wet too many times. I was at Friday night's game, and his bat speed has visibly slowed, and he doesn't move around well at all defensively. I'm no scout, but this obvious to anyone who's watching.

UZR be damned, says Michael Bourn. The opening paragraph from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Monday morning recap says it all:

The Milwaukee Brewers checked the box score after their game Sunday afternoon against Houston to make sure there was only one Michael Bourn playing center field for the Astros.

The Astros have the good fortune of missing Florida starting pitcher Josh Johnson this time around. He's been under the radar, but FanGraphs is of the option that he's a top ten starter in the NL.

The Brewers traded for David Weathers after the series against Houston was over. He hasn't been all that great for the Reds so far in 2009, but he's an extra arm to throw out there when need be.

On the minor league front, props to Drew Locke for surpassing the 100 RBI mark for the season. I realize that RBI isn't the stat of choice for saber-heads, but it's still a cool number to achieve for any middle of the order hitter. His career path has shown that progress for him has been slow in coming, due to injury and the inability to hit for power. As a 26 year old AA outfielder this was his best, and possibly, last chance to show something. The question is- has he ever played infield, because our major league OF seems set.

Jason Castro continues to be productive, despite not showing much pop for AA Corpus Christi. People other than the TCB crew are taking notice, too:

Catcher Jason Castro – the club’s 2008 first-round pick – should be the next significant contributor after surpassing J.R. Towles as the club’s backstop of the future. Castro, 22, began the 2009 season in high-A and hit .309/.399/.517 with seven homers in 207 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then moved up to double-A where he is currently hitting .304/.358/.405 with two homers in 148 at-bats. His power numbers were probably exaggerated a bit in high-A ball due to the fact he was playing in Lancaster (one of the best offensive parks in minor league ball) and his ISO has dropped from .208 in high-A to .101 in double-A. Regardless, he’s still an above-average offensive catcher who has really improved defensively behind the dish.

The blurb also notes how the Astros have seen solid contributions from farm hands like Hunter Pence and Bud Norris as well the past few seasons. The day we climb out of the cellar in the minor league system rankings, there will be much celebration around these parts.

[DQ Insert so these don't get lost forever]

Brian McTaggart notes that Miguel Tejada needs an off day and that Coop is trying to find the time to do it.  It fits pretty well with what I noted in Decemeber, but Coop seems to be showing his tendency to not be able to execute part of his job description (managing players):

"I've been thinking about it," Cooper said. "I really need to do it. I'm sure he wants to play here because he lives down in this area. Maybe on Friday or something like that in Milwaukee we'll give him a break. I've got to find time for him, though, because he definitely needs time off."

An interesting read about regression to the mean, confirmation bias, and the mistakes fantasy owners make.  I link it not to discuss fantasy, but to opine that I imagine that MLB GMs also, probably, fall prey to these exact same errors in judgement.

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May be a dumb question but

at what point in the off-seaon do the minor league rankings come out?

by Z-Dub on Aug 11, 2009 7:46 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

not dumb at all

i was wondering about that myself

by Evan Hochschild on Aug 11, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was reading Alyson Footers blog this morning

for those of us concerned with Bud Norris pitch count it appears the Astros have no plans in shutting down Bud after a certain amount of innings. By Footers estimation he’ll throw 180 innings this year.

by timmy_ on Aug 11, 2009 7:51 AM CDT reply actions  

That’s bad news. That’s about 20 more innings than they let Patton pitch in 07 before his shoulder gave out. Maybe the Astros get lucky with Norris. But, given the way things have gone with this team, I wouldn’t count on it.

by clack on Aug 11, 2009 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

Can anyone here write Cooper and/or Wade an email (or even Robinson)

callng their attention to the risks they are taking with Norris?
(i.e. – do you have their email addresses?)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 11, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

While I don't know of anyone TCB-related who does

I asked Zach Levine to ask Tal Smith about it about a month ago and Smith said something to the effect of: They’re not worried about Norris because he’s older (apparently they’re unaware that the injury nexus for pitchers persists until 27), so they think he can throw more innings, but he’ll monitored closely. After reading that I just shuddered.

When I can dig up my copy of Will Carroll’s Saving the Pitcher (damn you boxes of stuff I’ve yet to unpack) I’ll write a very detailed posts with everything I can find about how stupid this is. Maybe someone in the front office will read it?

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Aug 11, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Newest solution

http://twitter.com/crawfishboxes/status/3248038841

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Aug 11, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Response

http://twitter.com/alysonfooter/status/3248082479

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Aug 11, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

The rest of the conversation (if you can have that on twitter?)

Me: http://twitter.com/crawfishboxes/status/3248288086

Footer: http://twitter.com/alysonfooter/status/3248370737

and

http://twitter.com/alysonfooter/status/3248378796

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Aug 11, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't understand the "stress" concept here

Are the pitchers using one motion for the minors and one for the majors. I thought the whole point of being in the minors was to work on your mechanics and the pitches you use so you can use those SAME motions in the majors.

Once a pitcher has polished his mechanics and proven he can produce he’s given a shot at the majors. So when a pitcher is called up his mechanics and effort suddenly have more stress, because he’s facing major league hitters? Do they pitch from a different distance in the majors than they do in the minors? Is the mound lower in the majors?

In terms of mental stress sure, but that has nothing to do with the pitchers arm.

Okay so I’ll go with their “stress” argument. since they’re differing the effect of IP from the minors to the majors. Next year will they shut Bud down after say 90-100 IP since he’ll have only thrown 60 IP this year? or would they allow him to throw 200+ championship inspired IP after only throwing 60 “stress” major league innings? that would be an increase of 140 IP by their calculations at the major league level. but of course they’ll deal with the issue of his increased work load when it becomes a serious health issue.

Welcome to the big leagues Bud!…

I’m just venting and hope I am proven wrong and that he can handle the workload.

by timmy_ on Aug 11, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

That is horrifying news

I really, really hope that Norris can handle this. The Astros need Norris to be healthy in 2010 if the season will be at all watchable. OK, maybe an exaggeration, but still.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Aug 11, 2009 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

super...

Is there even a definite plan here? Are we pulling out all the stops to make the playoffs, or not? We didn’t pick anyone up before the deadline (not that we were in a position to make any big moves), but we also didn’t sell off any of the movable pieces.

Unfortunately it seems that “trying to win with what we’ve got” involves potentially ruining a young starter’s arm.

Anyone want to figure out, at most, how many wins extending Norris like this is supposed to add? Whatever the number is, how does it compare to the number of wins firing Coop 2 months ago could have added by now?

by BTastros on Aug 11, 2009 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Michael Bourn

I love that Journal-Sentinel line on Michael Bourn. – perfect.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 11, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Haudricourt

He’s quick witted on his twice a day radio bits with shows on the local ESPN affiliate. Phil Garner jokingly gave him the nickname “the prince of darkness.”

by ol Pete on Aug 11, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

This article raises the issue with respect to Drew Locke. Drew Locke has played an infield position, 1st base, previously in his career; he splits time between LF, RF, and DH currently, and LF is the position he has played the most in his career. I assume HLP meant an infield position other than 1st base, since that position will be taken for some time. Locke doesn’t look like a candidate for conversion; the fact that he has been put in the least defensively demanding positions during his career isn’t a good sign that he can take over a more defensively difficult position.

I would like to see Locke given a shot in spring training for a bench position. At his age, continuing to play in the minors next year will probably reduce his chances of making the major leagues.

by clack on Aug 11, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

right

i think that there are too many enticing younger outfielders in the minor leagues to not give one of them a chance, or at least to utilize them to get a AA/AAA 2B/SS/3B. My feeling is that while Jeff Kepp may have fit the bill on some levels, the team needs to find a cost effective player to play one of those infield spots. I may be castigated for this, but I would even consider trading Hunter Pence to find a comparable middle 3B/SS/2B. I know Kaz takes up space at 2B, but after 2010 he’s gone and there is no heir apparent. Cartwright in Lancaster/Lexington (I cant remember which) may be an option, but outside of him, I dunno. Maysonet seems like he is past the point where he could be a decent option, though I could be wrong. Before I write too much, I’m probably going to make a post on this subject..

by Evan Hochschild on Aug 11, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Farmstros made the interesting comment in another thread that thought had been given to converting Towles to a 2d baseman. I have no idea if he is capable of that or not (even though my off the cuff reaction is that 3d base might be a better spot for a tall catcher with a good strong arm). But, if that’s true, it might reflect two lines of thinking in the organization: Towles has been surpassed by Castro at catcher, and a young offense oriented second baseman is needed.

As far as conversion candidates go, good toolsy athletes often get assigned to CF. So, I would think that a young player in that mold we be the best candidate.

by clack on Aug 11, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mike Hampton's knee injury...

Just saw Hampton interviewed on the pregame show. He says he has been pitching with some pain in the knee all year. Since he has been pitching through it all season, he feels confident that knows how to handle it when he pitches. At least, that is what he says. I would imagine that a knee injury of this type could adversely affect his control. Mike says that he will get surgery in the off-season, and the doctor told him “he can pitch as long as he wants after that.”

This reminds me of Brad Lidge’s knee injury in 07. He was pitching with some pain in the knee all year, but had to get rest at times when it began to affect his pitching too much. Lidge had two knee surgeries in off-season / pre-season 08, the first of which was to clean out the cartilege and the second which repaired a “torn left meniscus,” similar to Hampton’s.

by clack on Aug 11, 2009 6:02 PM CDT reply actions  

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