Comparing Michael Bourn and Jacoby Ellsbury
by Evan Hochschild on Jul 9, 2009 6:00 AM CDT
in Stat Geeky
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PrintWhen it comes to young, speedy centerfielders, Jacoby Ellsbury is someone who comes up with great frequency. He plays in a large media market, in front of ravenous fans and for a media that salivates over anything Boston. After struggling in the postseason last year, Ellsbury has recovered to find success batting down in the Red Sox' batting order.
Interestingly, manager Terry Francona now has J.D. Drew leading off, while the speed merchant Ellsbury hits comfortably in the six hole most nights. If the Astros were to do this, Cecil Cooper would have to bat Lance Berkman first. Since Boston has many high OBP guys, they have the luxury to bat one of them first. The Astros have Lance as their great OBP guy, and that's about it. As such, Cooper has the more traditional table setter in Michael Bourn lead things off, and after an extremely poor showing in 2008, Bourn too has rebounded to play well in 2009.
Type Jacoby Ellsbury Baseball into Google and you find 377,000 results.
Type Michael Bourn Baseball into Google and you find 212,00 results.
I was actually surprised that it was that close. Off the field, Ellsbury dates Penthouse models. Off the field, Bourn...I don't really know what he does. Play XBox probably.
On the field, here is how the two compare this season:
| Player | AB | R | H | OBP | wOBA | SB | WPA |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 308 | 41 | 93 | .348 | .346 | 35 | -.63 |
| Michael Bourn | 304 | 46 | 87 | .359 | .343 | 26 | 1.01 |
Eerie isn't it? Ellsbury outslugs Bourn to make things even closer, but only by four points (.399 vs. .395)! In terms of runs created based on their wOBA, Bourn eeks out on top so far in 2009 by half a run. The similarties are so striking, but playing in different leagues and coming from different backgrounds don't make them an easy comparison.
Does defense break this virtual tie? Advantage to Bourn, though neither has a positive number in their UZR/150 column. It almost feels hollow to give Bourn the nod when neither has been all that great defensively in 2009. Wait! Jacoby has stolen thirty five bases this season. He stole home, and we heard about it, and heard about it...In total though, using FanGraphs' speed score, Bourn not only tops Ellsbury, but is peerless in all of baseball.
The season may only be half over, but Bourn has been better than Ellsbury in 2009. Good on ya, Michael.
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interesting comparison....and about the UZR results...
I have some skepticism about the negative UZR result for Bourn. Bourn was well above average, according to UZR, a month or so ago. So, he has flallen dramatically over that period. Usually when that happens, those of us fans who watch all the games notice it. But, based on observation, Bourn has been very good defensively. We use UZR quite a bit because it is convenient. But when I am skeptical of the result, I like to compare to other defensive metrics.
According to Revised Zone Rating, Bourn is the fourth best NL CFer, and 6th best in the MLs. I checked Bill James on line for the +/- results. Bourn is +1, according to that metric. According to Bill James, Bourn has been +5 throwing, which means a total of +6 for both James defensive metrics.
Back to the topic of Ellsbury vs. Bourn, according to RZR Bourn is much better defensively. Bill James’ on line also shows Bourn as much better on defense, since Ellsbury is 6 on the +/ and 0 on the throwing metric.
don't know how the strike through got there...
correction to last sentence…“Ellsbury is 6 on the +/ and 0 on the throwing metric.”
yeah, I noticed something similar in the past week with Pence's numbers, too
Maybe UZR is attributing some of the Astros’ troubles against the Giants to the outfield defense?
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
I thought about that...
even though it is hard to believe that two games could cause that kind of change. That first Giants game is the only one I can recall where I thought Bourn looked bad in the field. As it turns out, the Astros’ coaching staff had gone into the Giants’ series with a poor positioning plan for the outfielders, which failed to account for the huge gaps in RC and LC. Both Pence and Bourn looked more comfortable in Game 3 of that series, after the positioning was corrected.
It is also possible that Bourn may have lost some rating in Petco or the Twins field because several balls dropped in front of him. The +/- indicates that Bourn is very good on deep balls but below average on shallow balls (something I had observed). Bourn has acknowledged that he needs to improve his jump on shallow flies. That may be more of a recognition problem in unfamiliar ballparks.
UZR contains some type of park factor adjustment which may account for differences with RZR and +/-, also.
Great post. Bourn has indeed played really well this year, hopefully he’ll have some postseason success to make him more of a household name.
I wonder what a comparison of Lance Berkman and Mark Teixeira would look like?
For shits and giggles...
Tejada —- R: 46, 2B: 29, HR: 7, RBI: 46, BB: 10, K: 26, SB: 2, OBP: 0.359, SLG: 0.479, AVG: 0.330
Pedroia — R: 60, 2B: 26, HR: 3, RBI: 37, BB: 39, K: 25, SB: 14, OBP: 0.374, SLG: 0.402, AVG: 0.296
Jeter ——- R: 55, 2B: 16, HR: 10, RBI: 35, BB: 39, K: 41, SB: 17, OBP: 0.393, SLG: 0.457, AVG: 0.315
Teixeira —- R: 53, 2B: 23, HR: 20, RBI: 62, BB: 49, K: 52, SB: 1, OBP: 0.388, SLG: 0.546, AVG: 0.281
Berkman — R: 45, 2B: 18, HR: 17, RBI: 51, BB: 61, K: 57, SB: 6, OBP: 0.401, SLG: 0.529, AVG: 0.273
Youkilis —- R: 50, 2B: 20, HR: 14, RBI: 47, BB: 45, K: 67, SB: 4, OBP: 0.413, SLG: 0.546, AVG: 0.289
by littlevisigoth on Jul 9, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
It's funny
Because there’s a user who has that as his username and at the time, I think everyone thought it was more sarcasm than and the ability to allude to the double entendre that lead to the username. Now, it just looks prescient.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 9, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Off the field, Bourn…I don’t really know what he does. Play XBox probably.
Well, if that Hunter Pence ESPN video was any good indication, he and Pence spend at least part of their free time hanging out with Geoff Blum. And that’s just hilarious.
You know, given how heavily the Astros sometimes promoted Backe as a local guy, it’s kind of odd that they don’t do the same with Bourn. And Bourn’s from the city proper, too.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
my recollection is that Bourn said he was playing X box when he got the call that he had been traded to the Astros. So that may be a good guess.
Didn’t Pence, Bourn, and Blum get the same haircuts or something?
They got
“Rally” Hawks.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 9, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
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