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Jay Austin


Jay Austin, the Astros 2nd Round Draftee from the 2008 Draft, really struggled last year at Greeneville (R) (he hit .198 in 212 abs...ouch). His struggles continued this year, as he hit only .191 in April and .247 in May for Lexington. However, he's really begun to pick it up in June and July. Here's a quick look at his progression.

Star-divide

April: .191 average, 5 CS vs. 2 SB, .267 OBP, .250 SLG

May: .247 average, 3 CS vs. 6 SB, .291 OBP, .299 SLG

June: .311 average, 3 CS vs. 6 SB, .364 OBP, .426 SLG

July: .588 average, 1 CS vs. 1 SB, .611 OBP, 1.000 SLG

 

While the July #s are a small sample (4 games), his growth is undeniable. I think the best sign has to be the increase in OBP, which shows that he's also taking walks along as collecting hits. It'll be interesting to see how he finishes, but right now his #s are the following:

.272 avg (season-high), 14 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 19 BB, 48 Ks, 15 SB vs. 12 CS, .324 OBP, .366 SLG

 

Obviously these numbers could use some improvement, but they are markedly better than earlier this season, which I think we Astros fans should take as a great sign of a young, raw player making huge strides.

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interesting.

He really didn’t show a jump in walks in June/July, his OBP increase was driven by a higher batting average. One thing that jumps out is his groundball rate of 69% in both 08 and 09, which is as high as I’ve ever seen. With that kind of GB rate, he won’t be hitting HRs or many extra base hits—or one would think…he does have 14 doubles and 3 triples this year. He is only 19, and hopefully he is starting to figure out hitting.

by clack on Jul 5, 2009 7:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The thing that jumped out at me

was how dramatically his K rate fell from last year, despite being aggressively promoted.

K rate (according to Fangraphs):
2008 – 32.5%
2009 – 19.8%

It’s still high, but it does show that he’s still learning.

by AstroAndy on Jul 5, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

by the way, FirstInning.com has slightly lower K rates for Austin....

It shows 29.9% for 08 and 18% for 09. (I’m not sure why there is a difference; but my initial guess is that K rate may be based on plate appearances for First Inning and per at bat for Fangraphs…I don’t feel like checking that guess.)

As for the GB rate, it’s too early to start harping on that. But, unless he is viewed as a future Juan Pierre, I would think that the groundball tendency is something they will need to get him to back off on. Teams tell fast players to hit groundballs to take advantage of their speed, but I would think that he has the potential to grow into more power hitting. I checked Jacque Jones’ GB%, since he is one of the more groundball oriented power hitters I can recall. Jones had an average GB rate around 55%, and had a rate as high as 59%, but he had to get HR/Fly rates as high as 25% to have good slugging seasons.

by clack on Jul 5, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You’re right about how First Inning and Fangraphs calculate K%. First Inning does K/PA, Fangraphs does K/AB. Off the top of my head, K/PA seems to be the better measure.

As for Austin’s power development, eyewitness reports suggest that he’s still got room to mature physically. Another good indicator, perhaps, is that his GB% is steadily declining if you look month-by-month (although I’d still like to see a corresponding rise in his LD%). The ScoutingTheSally article suggested that outfielders have started playing him shallow, so it’s possible that he’s trying to loft the ball now over their heads now as an adjustment.

by AstroAndy on Jul 5, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's great to see the improvement

But he seems to have struggled mightily for a second round draft choice. I am curious: does anyone know why Astros drafted him in the second round?

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 5, 2009 12:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

high upside....

I have seen many interviews with Heck and he really likes all around athletes, guys who excel at several sports. Jay Austin had elite speed, considered the fastest player in the draft, and was highly recruited in football. He has a strong throwing arm, which means that he has the potential to become an elite defensive CFer. It’s not like he was an unknown; he was a high school all-american as an outfielder. But his skills were considered raw, and the Astros didn’t seem to be surprised by his early struggles hitting. Many of the all around athletes, who were three sport stars, will be considered raw for baseball because they didn’t concentrate their time on the sport, which requires much work.

by clack on Jul 5, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

to underscore his speed, one scouting report calls his speed “world class,” and Heck, himself, said Austin’s speed is “top of the scale.”

by clack on Jul 5, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

PG Crosschecker said it was possible that he was the fastest player in the 2008 draft. He ran the 60-yard dash in 6.20 seconds at a showcase. For comparison purposes, the current stolen bases leader in baseball is Carl Crawford, who reportedly ran a 6.4. Bo Jackson is supposed to have run the fastest 60-yd dash at a showcase and he did it in 6.1.

He also did a bit of pitching in HS, hitting 90 on the radar gun.

And despite having a statistically poor first year, BA ranked him as the 12th best prospect in the Appalachian League at the end of last season. Here’s what they said:

Though he struggled to make contact in his debut, Austin hit hard line drives when he did connect. The Astros’ second-round pick in June, he maintained his composure and gave a consistent effort in the field and on the bases, regardless of his fortunes at the plate. Austin has a chance to be a good hitter if he can learn to shorten his swing and use the opposite field. He also would benefit from improving his bunting ability so he could take advantage of his speed. His power potential is fringy, but he’s an above-average runner with the instincts to make him a prolific and efficient basestealer. A premium quick-twitch athlete, Austin is a plus defender in center field and has average arm strength.

by AstroAndy on Jul 5, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love to hear

that Austin is improving. If we had a blemish from last years draft (looking back thus far) then he might have been it but it looks like he’s becoming comfortable and reaching his potential. GO JAY!

by Astrosws20 on Jul 5, 2009 6:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like how the Astros drafted a player named Austin last year and a player named Dallas this year. But seriously, good to see him doing well.

by jmike on Jul 5, 2009 10:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good

It sounds like he is coming along nicely. He sounds like a ballplayer.

by PeteyNhtown on Jul 5, 2009 11:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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