Roughly 48 more hours...
by Robertpz on Jul 29, 2009 3:55 PM CDT
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...left to improve our team. Enough is enough. Roy and Lance are hurt and now we are calling up some of our minor leaguers to fill in for Roy and other injuries. Looking at some of these trades going on out here, it would shameful to hear that Drayton has told Ed to take his phone off the hook for any teams looking at adding a hot bat like Miggy or a quality bullpen player like Jose by Friday July 31st. I know everyone has criticized me either for being too wishful in what I think an AL team would offer for either player OR I have been called a fairweather fan. However, I believe that adding the right depth or getting a 3rd pitching option to go behind Roy and Wandy, but ahead of Moehler is exactly what we need. Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are just past their prime. It's like the late 90s Houston Rockets when they had Barkley and Pippen. Sure, they put up some decent nights from time-to-time, but overall, they are just names that remind you of back-when. Jose or Miggy might be back next season by choice, but there is no way both of them sign. Trade both, thank them for their hard work, and try & capitalize on adding some younger talent for the 2010 season and beyond. Stay status quo and we will have enough in the tank for some big wins every once in awhile, but not enough to keep playing at the level needed to make the playoffs. I'm just sayin'....
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I don’t see it happening. And, personally, I wouldn’t consider a Tejada trade at this point. I might have considered a Valverde trade before Hawkins went on the DL. The Astros are still close enough to contend. You just don’t wave the white flag on the season when the team is still this close to the division leader. That’s my view anyway.
Id be up for this trade
Erstad, Kata, Michaels, Hampton, and Ortiz for a bag of baseballs, a few maple bats, 3 sunflower seed bags, and some orangers
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 29, 2009 4:21 PM CDT reply actions
and soon
i might wanna add pudge in there
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 29, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
What if ...
we traded Valverde for a guy who could help this team now and in the future. There’s a nice blog written by Chip Bailey on the Chronicle website saying that we should pursue Kazmir and that if we offered Valverde we might be able to get him. I’D BE ALL FOR THAT!!
Yes it weakens our bullpen but we just got Brocail back and hopefully Hawkins injury isn’t too serious. We wouldn’t have a dominant closer but would still have good arms with Brocail, Hawkins, Arias …The Rays are trying to rid themselves of payroll and Valverde would give them a much needed arm for their bullpen and then he’s a free agent next year. The Rays are also strong on young pitching and they’d probably rather trade a struggling pitcher who’s making 6 million (I believe) than a young pitcher with loads of potential.
It might be a nice way to help us out for next year without hurting our chances this year.
Kazmir's an expensive arm
2009: he’s got about $2,000,000 left on his contract
2010: $8,000,000
2011: $12,000,000
2012: $13,500,000 club option
plus, his contract includes an $800,000 bonus if he gets traded.
Recap: that’s about $22,000,000 for two years and two months, or $35,000,000 for three years and two months.
You only take on that kind of contract if you think he’s going to bounce back to his old self. And the Astros don’t exactly have much financial flexibility, either now or in the near future.
Just don’t get your hopes up is all I’m saying.
it would be a very expensive gamble
Dave Cameron has an interesting article on Kazmir here.
If he’s a 4 BB/7 K/1 HR per nine inning guy, that’s about a +1.5 to +2 win pitcher. Kazmir is under contract for $20 million in 2010/2011, and then a team option of $13.5 million for 2012 or a $2.5 million buyout. So, he’s either going to cost $22 million for two years or $33 million for three years.
+1.5 to +2.0 win pitchers aren’t worth $11 million a year. However, there is of course the chance (however small) that Kazmir’s stuff and strikeout rates rebound, and he gets back to something more like the +4 win pitcher he was from 2005-2007. That built-in upside has to be factored into his cost, and probably pushes his true market value to somewhere in the $10 to $11 million neighborhood on a short term deal.
In other words, Kazmir’s deal isn’t a terrible one. It’s not a bargain in any sense, but it’s probably not that far off what he’d get if he was a free agent. Given the ratio between his talent level and cost, he should have trade value right around zero. He’s not a boat anchor that teams won’t touch, but the price tag is high enough that the Rays shouldn’t expect any real talent coming back in return.
If Tampa wants financial flexibility, they can probably dump Kazmir on someone with the payroll space to take a risk. Given their budget issues and pitching depth, it’s probably not a bad idea to move him now.
But just offering Valverde doesn’t seem like it would do it.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
of course
if Drayton were willing to take on the money, and if the Rays would take Valverde, I’d do it immediately.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
I am not with those guys...
I am more for trading for next year talent than I am for taking on fat contracts. We still have Lee’s contract plus eating Matzui’s money for another year.
I just think if you look at next year’s team:
OF – Pence, Bourn, Lee
1B – Berkman
2B – Maysonnet/Matzui (Edwin just needs more at-bats)
3B – Keppinger/Blum
SS – Tejada (if we don’t trade him)
C – Pudge/Quintero keeping the plate warm for Castro
P – Roy/Wandy/?/Moehler/Norris
We need to try and upgrade 3B/SS and find a #3 pitcher. When I say that, I am implying we are trading for a player or players who could contribute in 2010 more so than right now. If we can get a 2009 player, so be it. But I wouldn’t think that’s a viable option. Other than that, I say no to more payroll.
I doubt that's the team
Outfield and first look right but everythin else up for grabs,.
At third for example, you left out the Aaron Boone factor.
Also, If Miguel Tejada is with the team, think second or third for him (probably third since Astros seemt to favor Matsui over any of the incumbent third sackers (plus if range is the reason for the move, why move Tejada to second).
Astros may have six catchers at camp in spring training.
Maysonet/Manzella will make their claims to short next year.
Wandy is the only sure thing next year at pitching (Norris looking more concrete). No one has considerd this, but Roy O hinted last year he might retire if he’s arthritic condition worsened. Nothing mentioned this year about that , but let’s see how he respond to this current injury.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 30, 2009 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Boone and Blum are on contract for next season
and I doubt that they’ll be signed again. Same goes for Moehler.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
the money would be an issue but..
if he’s due to make 8 million next year then that would substitute right in line with Valverde’s money (as I beleive he’s making 8 million this year). So we’re not taking really taking on any more money. Then in 2011 he’s due to make 12 million and that’s the year that Kaz matsui and his 5 million salary comes off the books.
So we would have the money to do it. The problem is just finding cheap replacements for late inning relief and 2nd base (Which if our farm system continues to grow … hopefully we will have some productive cheap players on our MLB roster by 2011 and 2012).
I think it’s a gamble you take. Kazmir is struggling now and could probably be had for the right price. He’s still got great stuff (if healthy) and is only 25. Even so … we wouldn’t be counting on him to be our ace but he could be a very nice #3 pitcher for us. Most pitchers that switch from the AL to NL have a good success rate. A rotation of Roy/Wandy/Kazmir/Norris/Bazardo next year would be us heading in the right direction I think.
If the Rays want young SP back in a trade for Kazmir then we’re out of luck … but if that’s what they’re looking for I don’t know who is going to give them that. If they want a closer to help them this year then they couldn’t do much better than Valverde. If we throw in Towles i think that would peak their interest. Navarro is struggling this year.
This is probably all trivial b/c it doesn’t seem like a move that Wade would make. But it sure would be nice to take a chance on a guy like that.
How about Peavy?
OK…so this is just a pipedream of sorts, but as we’re talking about hypothetically taking on the contract of Kazmir, who I think is likewise a fine pitcher, what about Peavy? Sure, he’s on the DL now and not slated to return until sometime in August, but maybe the Padres want to complete their fire sale and would lower their asking price. It would have to come soon as it’s 3 pm here on the east coast, but I can’t think of any Astros fan who wouldn’t love the Oswalt/Peavy combination. Early in the season, San Diego wanted to dump off his contract- at the right price, of course.
Sure, I’m just dreaming, but I think Jake will be back this year and would give us a nice lift- for years to come.
the difference
is that the Astros could get Kazmir for comparatively little. Peavy is a great pitcher who will probably return to the field as a great pitcher. Kazmir has experienced a marked loss in velocity and has had trouble throwing his slider. Were the Astros willing to take on his contract, then they’d be taking a big risk, and the Rays might be willing to dispose of that risk for a smaller risk and smaller payroll.
With Peavy, there is no such risk. And so acquiring Peavy would take much of the Astros’ cost-controlled talent.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
rumor...Peavy traded to White Sox
MLBTR reports it as a Heyman Twitter message. He says it is unknown if Peavy approved the trade. White Sox don’t have much depth of minor league talent to trade.
didn't Peavy already veto a trade to the White Sox earlier this season?
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
Peavy changed his mind and approved the trade.
From his agent:
Peavy waived his no-trade clause to approve the trade, which was first reported by SI.com.
"I think Jake just got to the breaking point," Axelrod said. "One team wanted him bad enough, and the other team wanted to get rid of him."
peavy
Looking at his interview, I think SD put it to him as " you gotta go.."
And I see the “SAWKS” picking over the carcass known as the Cleveland Indians.
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