Bud Norris and his control

The InterWeb has been abuzz in the past 12 hours since the news of Bud Norris' callup hit. A couple months ago, I did a short profile on Norris here. In charting each of his starts, I really like what Norris brings in terms of potential to the rotation.

In 19 starts for Round Rock, Norris struck out 112 batters in 120 innings, averaging 8.40 K/9 and 3.98 BB/9. He struck out ten batters once and allowed two or fewer runs in 11 starts. Norris has a positive G/F ratio at 129/109 and a HR/9 rate of 0.45.

His record at Round Rock is pretty terrible at 4-9, but his expected winning percentage sits at .687, meaning his record should be more like 13-6. His Pitching Runs Created is at 51.12, which means he has created the most runs for the Express of any player this season. His average game score is a 57 and he's induced 16 double plays.

I am concerned, however, about his control. In Zachary Levine's Q&A with Tal Smith yesterday, Smith suggested that Norris' lack of control was similar to Wandy Rodriguez, so I went back and looked at Wandy's track record to begin his career. Rodriguez is pitching in his fifth season in the majors and here are his BB/9 rates over that time span: 3.7, 4.2, 3.1, 2.9, 3.0. In the minors, Wandy had a career BB/9 rate of 3.1 and his progression went like this: 2.4, 2.5, 3.3, 3.6, 3.3, 4.5 (though that last season consisted of only five starts at Round Rock).

Obviously, as the levels got harder, Wandy got more inaccurate. Norris has a career minor league rate of 3.7 and a progression of 3.1, 3.7, 3.5 and now 3.98. So, to this point, Norris has had worse rates for most of his time in the minors and for his college career. In three season with Cal Poly, Norris had a BB/9 rate of 5.47, but that number is skewed by his sophomore season when he walked 30 batters in 34 innings. In his only season as a full-time starter in college, Norris walked 57 in 110 2/3 innings, giving him a BB/9 rate of 4.64.

While Norris does give up free passes more than you'd like, he differs with Wandy in another, very key area. Only once in his minor league career has Norris given up more hits than innings pitched and that came in 2008 when he hurt his arm. That's only been true for Wandy about half the time, as he had 3 of 6 minor league seasons with more hits than innings pitched and his first two pro seasons continued that trend. Of course, this shows the big difference between the two: Norris is a power pitcher, who misses bats while Wandy is not overpowering, but uses location to make up for lack of speed.

What does this mean for Houston? I haven't the foggiest. No one seems sure how they'll use Norris, as the 8th inning role has recently been vacated with LaTroy Hawkins shingles-related trip to the DL. Norris has proven, though, that he does deserve a shot at the big league rotation.

David C.

Minor Musings