RJ Anderson: A Response

I think it's safe to assume that Anderson wasn't in the best of moods when he started writing his post on fangraphs (It's not going to be linked to. The comments have been a little crazy).  We can probably assume that as a stats guy Anderson is somewhat annoyed that the Astros tend to outplay their projections practically every year. Both of those seemed to combine when he started writing his post.  He didn't bother to put in research about a team he doesn't follow. Instead he made assumptions. False assumptions. Anderson, it's ok. It happens. But DON"T expect us to let you off the hook for it.

So now a response on why placing Lance Berkman on the DL was the right move.

According to Rotowire, Berkman has been dealing with "a nagging grade-2 calf strain."  Throughout the year Berkman has been his usual good self. Yet Berkman healthy should be even better.The Astros have weighed the DL move, deciding that they'd rather have a somewhat better Berkman playing for the last few months rather than a semi-injured Berkman manning firstbase or worst yet having him on the DL for a longer period of time when the injury becomes worse. Part of this decision is that if the Astros make the playoffs they want their best player ready to lead the team to their first World Series title (hopefully).

The timing of the DL stint isn't too terrible.  The Astros are currently facing off the Mets who currently are the second coming of the Nationals. Then they face the Cubs who aren't playing well this year.  And then they play St Louis. Ok so its a hit, but not a terrible one. From then on they face good teams.  There's also one off-day during the schedule.

Now to take a look at Berkman's replacement.  Chris Coste should be playing most of the games at first.  As a catcher, we should expect that Chris Coste will hit better while at firstbase than playing catcher. The body just takes less of a beating.  Chris Coste's current wOBA is .338 according to fangraphs. I'm not sure where Anderson got his numbers because I find it unlikely that Coste's wOBA went up by .040 points in two days.  Either way Coste is approximately a league-average hitter who should become slightly better while playing first.

Another advantage is that their pitchers are better than advertised.

Mike Hampton, who's my favorite pitcher on the Astros, has more than just a bad ERA to give. His wOBA is .338 (and ironically the same as Coste) which is pretty impressive as a pitcher. His ERA is somewhat inflated as his FIP is only 4.16 a gap of over half a run.  Expect his ERA to come down at least slightly. 

Other odds and ends include Matsui, who has been playing horrendously this year and is likely to rebound somewhat in the second half. Few players drop so dramatically off a cliff. Most players who suffer such a drop tend to rebound during the year like Carlos Delgado did last year. As others have mentioned the Astros have gotten rid of their worst players during the season. And yes the Astros could be counted lucky. As I said before they always tend to outperform their prognastigators. So its not atypical and may even be some type of unmeasured and unrecognized (so far) skill.

So beware. The Astros are better than you think.