Discussion Time: It's Open Season for Astro-Bashing
by Evan Hochschild on Jul 24, 2009 9:17 AM CDT
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PrintFangraphs takes a turn on calling out the Astros for being frauds. Basically, it talks about how Lance Berkman's absence is going to sink our ship, which is good thing, because the Astros just aren't very good. A post I made yesterday about Lance's injury was fairly similar to Mr. Anderson's actually, except I chose the glass half full point of view.
The article makes a few valid points, but it's the venom associated with points that makes me wonder if the author just woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. I made a pretty lengthy comment and I'll repost it here:
Wow! Why the hate, man? I read FanGraphs every day, and I never see an author write this way about a team…did the Astros organization do something terrible to you?
Jason Smith, Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, and Brandon Backe are either no longer with the team, are injured, or are in AAA with zero chance of rising up to make the big league club again this season. Take out their terrible performances, and the team doesn’t look so bad.
The Astros appear "lucky" because of their run differential/strength of schedule so far. Again, every team has throw away blowout losses that skew their pythag record. This team is no different. They’re something like 0-8 in games decided by 8+ runs…they lose blowouts, in other words.
True, maybe, they aren’t that good, and maybe they don’t have a great farm system (ok, they don’t have a good farm system!), but why the need to jump all over them like this?
As far as costing the team a draft pick…it’s not like it’s the NBA or NFL where early first rounders are more of a sure thing. It’s baseball. Tons of busts, no matter if you pick #4 or number #24 in the first round.
Does that sound about right? Did I miss anything?
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Everybody likes to hate
Everyone was hating before the season started. No different. Now they are just getting upset cause Houston isn’t doing as bad as they thought.
so true
when the projectors and prognosticators are wrong, they flail to prove they’re actually right and that teams with winning records still stink.
We’re only two series in to our put-up-or-shut-up stretch, though. Losing 9 or 10 of the next 13 could dump us right out of the conversation.
by littlevisigoth on Jul 24, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Hey HLP - isn't RJ one of your boys?
I’m sure we’ll never know whether this is a typo or a malapropism, but its funny:
It goes without saying that Berkman is a vital clog
The Rays, unlike the Astros have a lot of vital clogs
zing!
haha yes, Pete. He is a fellow SBN writer….I thought about pointing that out in the post itself, but I thought better of calling out a “co-worker”.
by Evan Hochschild on Jul 24, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
I figured it was a pun
on how the Astros are “sabotaging” his preseason predictions.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
Report: Cardinals complete trade for Holliday.
Wallace and two other minor leaguers go the other way.
Well,
as you say, this is nothing particularly new. The Astros aren’t a good team. BUT, they aren’t the God-awful team that so many predicted them to be in the preseason. And that’s mostly because Wandy finally put things together, Pence rebounded from a tough (but decent) season (though he’s been in a slump for a while now), Bourn surprised everyone but the Astros’ FO and became a contributor, and low-risk investments in Ortiz and Hampton have mostly paid off. Oh, and Arias, Sampson, and Hawkins have made up a great bullpen.
I think the latest revised PECOTA projection I saw pegged the Astros for about 75 wins. That’s what a lot of us thought at the beginning of the year (mostly because y’all decided Bourn couldn’t possibly be that bad), and I think it’s a conservative estimate for the Astros this year. Are the Astros getting lucky (though, really, I think saber-minded writers need to rethink and define what exactly is lucky and baseball and what isn’t)? Probably (I think the Astros fans, writers, and personnel would probably prefer “overachieving”).
Only one thing in the article – other than the stuff about guys who aren’t with the team anymore – really irked me:
Frankly I might be a bit irked as an Astros fan, all this luck is going to cost Houston a nice draft pick for their efforts.
Yeah, you know, that’s what I thought all through last year as a Texans fan: “Don’t get that touchdown, Slaton! We can’t possibly win the division, so we should hope for a high pick!” That’s what I thought a few months ago as a Rockets fan: “McGrady’s injured and Ron Artest is now our #2 guy?! TANK! TANK! We can’t win a championship with this crew, and I want a shot at Griffin!”
Oh, wait… that’s not what I thought at all. Because I’m a fan and I like to see my team win. I’m as statistically oriented and rational as any other fan in baseball. I want to see the Astros build a farm system and succeed long term. But I’ve also seen too many franchises attempt to do basically what RJ is suggesting: don’t try to win games now and perpetually rebuild. And you know what? I don’t want to be one of the fans who follows a team like that – always waiting for next year’s draft and hoping in vain. If the Astros understand what everyone else in the fucking country seems to understand (the NL Central is weak and pretty much anyone but the Pirates has a shot at it, though that might change with Holliday in St. Louis), then why shouldn’t they try to take advantage? Because they’ll get the 20th pick instead of the 12th? I don’t give a shit.
Maybe I’m spoiled. Maybe it’s because the Astros have made the playoffs more often than not when I’ve been following them. Maybe it’s just that I hate the way drafts work because I’m a competitive guy. But I’d rather see the Astros get a 4-star prospect in the first round next year and win 85 games than see them get a 5-star and win 70.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Jul 24, 2009 1:21 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
I agree
I like the excitement of going for the win, for the championship, for the playoffs. No one can predict next season accurately at this point, much less two or three down the road.
Astros should not deplete its minor league system to add a rental player however.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 24, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
That is, I agree EXCEPT
I disagree about the Astros projected wins for the season – (As an aside – Before the season I thought they’d win at least 80 games and maybe as many as 86 or 87 games this season. The low to mid 70s didn’t sound right).
The 75 wins definitely looks low. If the Astros win 40% of the remaining games they’d have 76 wins. Every 3% over 40% winning percentage adds 2 wins. If the Astros win 46% of their remaining games they will have 80 wins. If they match their current 52% rate, they’ll have a respectable 84 wins.
A winning streak here or there and they have a shot to make the playoffs.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 24, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
The sabermetric fanatics are mad that the Stros keep breaking their meters
Not that I’m at all against sabermetrics, I love advanced statistics, I loved FJM, I loved Moneyball, but it appears that some people take sabermetrics as the ultimate and final word on a team or player. Statistics are a very useful tool but they can also be manipulated to say whatever you want them to say, and shouldn’t be the only deciding factor in evaluating a team or player.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 24, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions
like HLP, DQ and others at TCB, I am fascinated by sabermetrics...
and I think it is a powerful tool. But some people view it as more mature than it really is…as if the latest WAR analysis or computer simulation is the final word which can explain everything in baseball. If the real world results are contrary to their projection, then something must be wrong with the real world. Maybe a better reaction is to think, “maybe my model of the baseball world doesn’t explain everything, and there is more research to do.”
by clack on Jul 24, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Why do the astros need to be buyers?
Why not promote some of the old minor leaguers and see if they can fucking hack it in the BIGS? Bring up Royce Huffman and Chris Johnson to get some fucking at-bats and starts in Berkman’s place (Royce played 1B at Elkins when they won the first state championship in ’95).
by Cactus Jack Sancho on Jul 24, 2009 5:48 PM CDT reply actions
I think the thinking on Royce Huffman is that he isn’t in the Astros farm system. And he hasn’t been. Since 2006.
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