How the next week is the most important in the Astros' season
by HighLeveragePerformer on Jul 18, 2009 6:00 AM CDT
in News
7 comments
The All Star Game has long since finished and real baseball is back in full swing. If parity is what sports fans crave, then this MLB season has been a veritable feast of average, yet entertaining baseball. In the NL, only the Nationals, Padres, Diamondbacks and Pirates can count themselves as being too far out to make a post season push. Teams such as the Braves, Astros, Rockies, Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Marlins and Mets are close enough to make the division and wild card leaders nervous.
With so much on the over the next few series, the Astros have everything in front of them. It's not as if all of our remaining games are with teams that we are not chasing, which happens seemingly all the time in the NFL. Thankfully baseball is not like the NBA, where a team gets precious few chances those teams in the front every chance to fall flat on their faces, just ask the 2007 and 2008 New York Mets.
There are many games yet to be played, but the Astros are in a position where everything more or less boils down to the next four series. If the team falls out of contention before the trade deadline, it's possible that this is the year that Drayton McLane eases up and decides to trade away a few veteran players for a prospect or two. Miguel Tejada, LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde may be wearing another uniform by July 31st if the Astros' can't handle the July heat. 2010 looks to be an interesting season for the club, but I don't want to look ahead before we absolutely have to. Speaking of 2010, Bud Norris is expected to be a big part of that team. The probable loss of multiple veteran starters means that Norris and other young guns should be given a chance to prove themselves on the major league level. Depending on how the team performs in the upcoming weeks, Norris (and possibly Yorman Bazardo) could be used in a number of ways.
If the Astros are in the hunt come August/September, Bud Norris could be inserted as a late innings pitcher, just another arm to bride the gap between the starters and Jose Valverde. Our bullpen has rode hard and put up wet this season, and a live arm like Norris would be a welcome addition to the team.
On the other hand, a poor performance out of the gates could find Bud Norris as a starting pitcher down the stretch, acclimating him to this level and knocking out a Brian Moehler or Russ Ortiz. Concerns exist about Norris' arm health, considering he had elbow difficulties just last season. If given the green light, we may be exposed to the future sooner than we had anticipated.
After this current series in Los Angeles, the Astros travel home to play St. Louis and New York and then fly to Wrigley Field to play Chicago. Before we get ahead of ourselves, the series against LA and STL should tell us where we are. The Astros don't have a history of playing well on the west coast or beneath the Gateway Arch, but that has to change in 2009 for there to be any hope heading into August.
Recent opponents like the Nats, Giants, Pirates and Padres all had holes in their lineups, and the Astros were able to take advantage of those holes to boost their record to .500. Top to bottom though, the Dodgers are the best team in the NL, and possibly all of baseball. Their offense gets on base, has solid contact hitters, and has the Predator (aka Manny Ramirez) as a near impossilbe out when he's on his game. Things don't get any easier on the other side of the ball, as young pitchers Jonathan Broxton, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley make up a talented staff. Veterans like Randy Wolf and Hiroki Kuroda are steady as she goes, and have played in important games many times before.
The Cards are an all to familiar road block to success for the Astros. Tony LaRussa never seems to have the most talented bunch, but they always win and almost never beat themselves. Aside from Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick is warming up, and Troy Glaus is on his way back from injury. Colby Rasmus is a talented rookie, and Yadier Molina is a terror to try to run against. Adam Wainwright pitches like Walter Johnson against the Astros, and Chris Carpenter is back to his old, really, really good ways.
Making progress in the standings these first few weeks won't be easy, but as it usually is with the Astros, it will be fun and it will have you interested. Before we start to think about 2010, the offseason or even August, these next two series will certainly define and alter the organization's future plans. Game on.
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I agree that the next few series will have a major impact on the Astros’ position in the standings. But I don’t think that the results, one way or the other, will turn the Astros into sellers at the deadline. In his interviews recently, Wade has said that he doesn’t see the Astros trading off players. I think he is going forward with this group of players, for better or worse.
by clack on Jul 18, 2009 7:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice try but premature
showing the Astros (and the Brewers) in a second place tie in the Central Division standings. Not so fast, please; the Cubs have a microscopically higher winning percentage, and therefore are the true second place team. Let’s hope that is soon to pass.
"Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs"
-Earl Weaver
by bwhite2323 on Jul 18, 2009 11:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Close enough for government work
Cubs currently are a tiny fraction of a percentage point ahead of Astros and Brewers because they played two fewer games; but all threeteams are “3” games behind the Cardinals (and of course that 3 is a misnomer too – Astros have won four fewer games than the Cardinals (and so are four back) and lost only two more (and so are only 2 back). (Cubs can be 5 back or 1 back depending on which column you read)
The point is the Cubs, Astros and Brewers are all fairly equally situated as to each oher; and all within reach of the Cardinals.
The Reds and Pirates are in our rear view mirror and so we don’t consider them anymore.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 18, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Premature, yes
But I think the overall idea is this: This stretch of series won’t determine what happens in September and October, but they will provide a strong hint as to how the Astros, as a team, are going to operate in the second half. 3/4 series against strong opponents. Two of those three are against divisional rivals, in a tightly bunched Central race. So this stretch will determine whether the Astros start August still in the bunch, or chasing from behind, and I think that shapes, to a pretty large extent, whether the Astros are in control of their destiny, or we have to hope that other teams blow up in September and the Astros catch fire like in 2006 and 2008.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Jul 18, 2009 11:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
A lot of speculation in HLP piece
I agree with clack that Astros will NOT be sellers even if the next four series don’t go well (and the first one is already going well thank you very much). I wroe arant inlast nmgiht’s aganist peope who say Astros play better after the AllStar game.They usally play WORSE until late August when they turn on afterburner. In the recent past (multiple years) the whole Astros fandom has written them off but Drayton McClane stuck with the team and they rebounded. (recall last year when seemginly everyone locally and nationally mocked McLane for signing Randy Wolf late). Astros won’t be sellers.
The Astros have aleady rebuked the idea the Dodgers would take the current series.
I think Astros face the Cardinals at MMP and not under the Gateway Arch next week (by the way Roy O vs Chris Carpenter next Wednesday!)
I’d think the most important week of the season will be the final week.
Every series is important but none is do or die (yet)
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 18, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I think that Astros push last season began in early August, nearly came to a screeching halt with El Caballo’s season-ending injury, but then resumed. Of course, then came the hurricane, and a five-game losing streak right after that near the end of the season, and that finished things fast.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
by jonthefon on Jul 18, 2009 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
has hampton been working out during the break/ Would be nice to win tonight
by tuck321 on Jul 18, 2009 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 5:43 PM CST)
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