Carlos and his Amazing Technicolor Powerhitting (Or lack thereof)
by Evan Hochschild on Jul 15, 2009 6:00 AM CDT
in Stat Geeky
3 comments
As players age, certain elements of their on field performance begin to decline. Speed, velocity on a pitcher's fastball, and arm strength and mobility for outfielders are just a few examples. For a hitter like Carlos Lee, the ability to hit for power has proven to be a huge part of his game over his career. Since becoming a full time outfielder with the White Sox in 2000, Lee has never failed to hit fewer than 24 home runs in a season.
This season though, Carlos hasn't been as potent at hitting the long ball. His 13 home runs at the All Star break coincide with a relatively low .485 SLG%, and a near career low ISO of .177. The isolated slugging percentage drop off hurts the most, as the Astros are struggling to hit for extra bases as a team. As I wrote earlier this summer, ISO is the offensive statistic that correlates most strongly with winning baseball.
Should we have seen this coming? Can Carlos Improve?
Here is what two projection systems had for Carlos this season, in terms of SLG%:
| Projector | SLG% |
| PECOTA | .505 |
| CHONE | .522 |
Even the notoriously conservative PECOTA had him slugging higher than his current .485. Let's see what ZIPS has him projected to do for the remainder of 2009:
| SLG% | ISO | HR | 2B |
| .497 | .192 | 25 | 32 |
He's supposed to improve, but will still be below his career averages in both SLG% and ISO. Some interesting peripheral statistics to take note of: Lee's HR/FB% is at a stout 10.4%, but his FB% is down from years past. This means that for the first time in his career, his GB/FB rate is above one. This may just be a one year decline in his power stats, but at 33, Carlos is most likely entering the decline years of his career. It's not so much that he's not hitting home runs as he has in years past- it's his low ISO. In order to justify his contract, and for the Astros to stay in the hunt, his best bet lie in upping his 2B totals to the high 30s or 40s.
Believe it or not, Carlos has outperformed his salary so far in his tenure as an Astro. He'll be hardpressed to do so this season and in future seasons as well, but adding to his double totals would help mask the fact that his best home run days may be behind him.
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Last year, Lee went through a bad slump—in May, I think—and I began thinking that this is the age-related decline starting already. As we all know, Carlos Lee came on with a vengeance in the second half, before his injury. So, I have refrained from thoughts about Lee entering a steep old age decline. Hopefully, he will begin hitting like gangbusters.
For guys like Lee, it’s hard to identify a steep age-related drop off—you don’t know if it is, until after it already happened. Two comparable situations are Carlos Delgado last year and Big Papi this year. In both cases, the older sluggers were mired in early season slumps and everyone was writing them off as “finished;” but both guys came back to prove the conclusion wrong.
Another issue with Lee’s groundball rate is that it increases the liklihood of GIDP, and DPs have proven to be an Astros’ nemesis this year. With runners on base and two strikes, Lee tends to reduce his swing and try to hit the ball up the middle, which often results in a groundball. The intent is good, because he is trying to drive in a run. Maybe he has been getting in more counts with two strikes on him.
by clack on Jul 15, 2009 8:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, if Carlos starts slugging a little more that would definitely help the team. Carlos hasn’t seemed to get on a real hot streak yet, like he’s done in previous years. Maybe it is his increasing age, but I’d always heard that a player’s average went before his power as he lost bat speed. Also, could be the extra 20 lbs he’s put on lately.
Blum’s power seem’s to have entirely disappeared as well. But perhaps his 2008 power numbers were fluky and this is just more in line with his career norms. Astros could use Wigginton’s pop.
by jmike on Jul 15, 2009 8:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not completely worried
Carlos is obviously going to eventually decline, but wait it out till the end of the season.
I remember he went on a serious hot streak after the break (25 RBIs in July, 13 in 9 August games) and probably would’ve managed career-high numbers if it hadn’t been for that season-ending broken hand (still had just under two months left, already had 28/100).
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
by jonthefon on Jul 15, 2009 10:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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