Current Elias Rankings: how it could affect the Astros' offseason

If he accepts it, well you could do worse out of the bullpen for $5 million. If he doesn’t accept it as Valverde likely will not, then you’re rolling in picks. I think it’s a gamble the Astros can take that could cost them some money, but isn’t really terrible going either way.

I think I agree with your assessment, but another factor in whether or not we offer Hawkins is whether or not they intend to re-sign Valverde. I would assume they’d want to retain at least one of them. If they lost both, we’d likely be in the market for a free agent bullpen veteran ourselves.

I don’t think the Astros will offer Hawkins arb. because they have a history of leaning towards the safe side when it comes to arbitration. This was Purpura’s philosophy. It seems as though it has become Wade’s philosophy. Two very different GMs, what is the link that ties them? Drayton McLane. He (unlike many Americans prior to the hysteria filled economic “collapse”) is very careful where he puts his money, something I am hesitant to fault him for. Anyways, I do believe that Houston will seek to resign one of the Hawkins-Valverde duo. I would guess Hawkins because he is cheaper and has proven to be effective in the ninth inning this season. However, I don’t think Houston will let it get to arbitration. They will look to resign him at a number below what he would receive in arbitration. I do believe they will pursue, or at least look into a long term contract. However, they will soon find out it will likely take a 3-5 year deal worth 30+ million. The front office and Drayton know one of their problems is all of the big contracts they hold. Also, I believe Houston views Bud Norris as their future closer, or at least, late innings reliever. I think if they viewed him as a starter, he’d be in Houston starting already.

I do agree that $5 million for a year of Hawkins is far from a worst case scenario, it would almost be ideal, but Houston’s track record does not support the action.

For instance, I would really want to see how a guy like Hawkins pitches throughout the season before making a decision. Hawkins has been so overworked that I would worry about his arm falling off. Valverde’s value in both arbitration and free agency could shift signficantly depending on whether he has a so-so year or a great half season from here.

As others have noted, McLane is completely risk averse when it comes to arbitration. He doesn’t want to take even well calculated risks on arbitration. I would go the other way…taking significant risks on arbitration, like teams such as the Padres and Brewers have historically done in order to maximize their draft choices. Sometimes you get bitten, but usually it works out OK, and you end up with a boatload of draft choices.

As an aside, I would point out that a Type A designation for either Tejada or Hawkins is probably going to limit their ability to get big contracts in free agency (if arbirtation is offered). Both guys are at an age where teams aren’t going to want to give up high draft choices to sign them and pay big money. Think of Orlando Hudson, as an example. That could give the Astros some leverage to sign them to reasonable contracts, if the team wants, before the arbitration decision date, because the Astros could threaten to offer arbiration and cut down their salary options. Consider the example of Brocail who signed a fairly low cost contract with the Astros for a Type A reliever.

I’d really like to see Drayton do the offer arb. and pray that the FAs stay away so the Astros get picks, but I really don’t see him taking too many risks.

I think Valverde seems like a safe bet to offer arbitration and see him get a multi-year deal elsewhere. I’m not confident about Hawkins, I think they shouldn’t offer him arb. because, well, he’s getting up there in years and he’s had quite the workload. Of course, they probably should try resign him early before anything becomes concrete in terms of contracts but not for any gregarious amount and let him walk if he does get that sexy offer elsewhere.

Tejada? He might not get a deal anywhere with Type-A status, considering everything. I see him resigning with the Astros for less than what he’d get in arbitration and bypassing the entire business. If they can’t sign him before that, I kinda see Drayton doing it just to get him back.

Weird thing for Pudge. I think they should offer him arbitration, but hey, he didn’t get any looks from teams until the Astros signed him. Castro may be ready in 2010, and Pudge could be useful to have around but I don’t think Houston will be losing sleep over making the right decision.

MLB is having a difficult season at the turnstiles and TV revenue is down. This will probably keep salaries from escalating too much (or at all) during the off season. My first guess is that it helps the smaller market teams be more competitive, but I’m not sure at all.

— Keep Pudge to hold fort until Castro comes up next year. His veteran plate calling will be nice with any young call-ups we have next year.

— Keep Hawkins as Valverde is gone! We need the flexibility if he is needed to step up into Jose’s role.

— Brocail being back in full-form next season would be like having new addition to the roster especially if he moves into 8th inning role behind Hawkins.

— Trade Tejada and Valverde or get the valuable compensation picks if no trade can’t be had. I still can’t imagine any AL team not wanting Tejada’s bat down the stretch…