Why did the Astros option Edwin Maysonet to AAA?: Good Question

by DyingQuail on Jun 28, 2009 7:00 AM CDT in Stat Geeky Comment 11 comments

I feel you, Edwin. Stay strong.

The Astros had a hard decision on their hands yesterday when they activated Geoff Blum from the DL. With a surplus of role players already on the bench, someone had to go. The options, at least in my mind, were probably between the following guys:

Michales and Kata are both on the wrong side of 30, while Edwin Maysonet, who has had a sterling 2009 campaign at both AAA and the major league level, is 27. Both Kata and Maysonet can play multiple defensive positions in the infield with Kata actually having spent sometime roving around the outfield during the course of his career. Kata probably should receive credit on this point because he's an über utility man and a switch hitter (i.e. the ultimate grab a glove or a bat and get in there kind of guy).

So with three options, how did the Astros arrive at sending Maysonet to AAA? I'll go through how I would have approached this decision after the jump.

Making defensive assessments of their 2009 campaigns is too dicey because all have seen limited playing time at their positions and defensive metrics require a large sample size to have real meaning. Looking at career trends, Michaels has been a stellar defensive player for most of his career, but since 2006 has been worth 5.7 UZR in a 2000+ inning span, and hasn't been anything special with the Astros in 2009. Kata has pretty much been average to just below average everywhere on the field since 2005 (minorleaguesplits.com doesn't have a link and his UZR samples are just to small to say anything meaningful). Maysonet has been slighly plus at SS throughout his career and even saw time in left field in 2008 where he broke even (minorleaguesplits.com and same caveat about his UZR samples).

The conclusions I came to after looking at all the numbers is that Maysonet is probably slightly better than Kata in the infield and it seems like Michaels really doesn't offer anything, at this point, that Kata or Maysonet couldn't in LF. Really though a cases could be made to go a variety of ways with that assessment, so please weigh in on were you stand, but It's clear that none of them can claim to be the consensus glove off the bench guy.

So that leaves their offensive contributions:

Edwin Maysonet: .315 AVG / .356 OBP / .407 SLG / .337 wOBA (career wOBA: .315)
Matt Kata: .240 AVG / .269 OBP / .280 SLG / .249 wOBA (career wOBA: .293)
Jason Michaels: .179 AVG .247 OBP / .290 SLG / .303 wOBA (career wOBA: .327)

Arguably, Jason Michales has had the hardest job of all three of these guys because a lot of his PAs have been as pinch hitter, so you can read his line with a small grain of salt if you wish. On offense though, Edwin Maysonet has been an above league average hitter in terms of wOBA (league average is around .330 depending on the year), while Michaels BB% of 6.9% has helped him out quite a bit in the wOBA department over Kata. Maysonet posted a 6.1% BB% and the only time Kata has reached base this year other than a hit is his one HBP. Maysonet's numbers are inflated due to his LD% of 26.8% which is not only unsustainable in general, but well above his career average of 16.2%. For what it is worth, he had a LD% of 19.8% AAA before being called up this year, so you can decide where exactly to regress his batting average. (line drive data from minorleaguesplits.com)

Looking at those lines and keeping in mind the other caveats that have to be introduced, as well as the career declines of both Kata and Michaels based on their age, it really feels like the Astros should have been deciding on whether to designate Kata or Michaels for assignment (does Kata have to be designated or just optioned?).

The only thing I've been able to dig up on the move from an organizational perspective are the following:

"He's done exactly what we've needed him to do," manager Cecil Cooper said on Friday. "He hasn't not played well. It's just that the role has been diminished, because guys have become healthy, the guys that were supposed to be out there playing are playing."

To me, that elucidates...nothing. So maybe Coop's comment on why having Blum back helps us make sense of somethings:

"It's another left-handed bat and makes us stronger," Cooper said.

Admittedly, the Astros are limited on left handed batters and with Kata being a switch hitter, he has that going for him in terms of staying on the roster. What's left then is a decision between designating Jason Michaels (age 33) for assignment or optioning Edwin Maysonet to AAA.

I run this through my head in the following way: Edwin Maysonet, in the prime age range of his career, is having a career year so far at the plate, can play multiple infield positions, has experience in the field and is even working on his catching abilities. Jason Michaels in the decline of his career, can only play the outfield, which hasn't be doing well, and has yet to prove himself capably offensively. If both Kata and Maysonet have played in the outfield during their careers and we already have a capable fourth outfield in Darin Erstad, why do we need to hold onto Jason Michaels? (Jeff Keppinger has also played in the outfield as well). When we looked at their offensive value above, the choice seemed to between Kata and Michaels, but if left handedness is being given weight, then Michaels sort of becomes the easy choice for who to boot.

The only conclusion I can come to is that he has a rapport with Ed Wade from his time in Philly and a guy in the Round Rock press box mentioned that there were a few of the Astros brass who weren't fans of Maysonet for no real reason in particular. At the very least this just feels like a preference for a veteran bench presence rather than youth. Maysonet needs no more seasoning at AAA; he's 27 years old and has had nearly 500 AB there. Even if Maysonet is kept on as a bench presence it's not like that's the kiss of death in terms of him seeing playing time. It just requires sounder management of our roster. Miguel Tejada needs more off days in the second half and Kazuo Matsui won't stay healthy for the rest of the season if he's allowed to grind it out every game; there is clearly use for him. All this move does is block Maysonet from developing at the major league level while he is capable of it and I am hard pressed to think of something positive that comes from this in return.

So at the end of all of this (and believe me, this has been a labor of inquiry) I'm left skeptical of this decision in terms of wanting to win baseball games, and I am confused as to why Jason Michaels and Brandon Backe aren't both trying to plot their return to baseball with another team.

Poll

If you're in the driver's seat, who do you get rid of?

Maysonet

12 votes

Kata

53 votes

Michaels

241 votes

306 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

yes, I agree with your conclusion...

and probably would be more firm in saying this is a bad decision. I think Michaels may not be in the comparison, from the Astros’ perspective, because they view Michaels as the primary PHer and “power” bat off the bench. (However, I would replace Michaels with Y. Ramirez, Abercrombie, or Locke for that position though.)

I think the decision came down to Kata or Maysoonet. Kata has played good defense (and Maysonet has played decent defense too), but Kata’s career stats indicate he can’t hit. You’ve layed out the reasons for keeping Maysonet, including “merit,” given his fine performance so far. “Handedness” shouldn’t be a major factor, given that Maysonet is a RHB who has shown the ability to hit RHP better than LHP over his carrer. I blame Cooper for the outcome of this decision because he refused to play Maysonet after Matsui came back, and gave all of the available playing time to Kata. This made it impossible for Maysonet to prove that he could continue his excellent performance. Cooper’s “he hasn’t not played well” is not only a grammatically grating double negative, but also a refusal to acknowlege that Maysonet has been the Astros’ best rookie surprise. I think Maysonet fell victim to the organization’s obsession with gritty veterans.

by clack on Jun 28, 2009 7:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I get the Michaels has a role

He was originally envisioned for and that’s they way I was going to originally approach it, but he doesn’t hit as a PHer, so I realized the point was moot. Five of his eight doubles are from his multi-PA games this year, and in general he has demonstrated nothing that suggests he can PH. He doesn’t play good defense, so I actually went back and changed the beginning of the post because I realized his power bad in the clutch-esque status is undeserved.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Jun 28, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I agree that Michaels is unsuccessful in his role.

however, I think the Astros wouldn’t view Kata/Maysonet as possible replacements for him, because they don’t fit the role he is supposed to fill. but I would like to see Michaels replaced on the bench, though I don’t think Kata or Maysonet are good fits for the role. of reserve outfielder/primary PHer.

by clack on Jun 28, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

A bench of Abercrombie and Maysonet makes so much more sense than Kata and Michaels.

I almost titled this post “Maysonet optioned to AAA for being on the right side of 30”.

by DyingQuail on Jun 28, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's amazing to me

that Bourn, Penc,e Paulino, and Wright are allowed to play for this team.

Oh, and Erstad should have been cut a few weeks ago, too. It’s like Cooper and Wade think that your bench is there to give away outs.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Jun 28, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not seasoning - playing time

Kata and Michaels are dead-end ballplayers. If Maysonet is going to be a contributor in the future, he’s better off getting at bats in Round Rock than just sitting in Houston on the bench. He’s never going to be much of a pinch hitter – just a utility guy. If the Astros are looking into the future at all, that may have been why they decided to send him down.

By the way, “gritty veteran” Jason Smith is hitting .231 in Round Rock last I looked. Don’t see any reason to have him at Round Rock at all, but that’s really the type of player we’ve been seeing for the last several years there.

by noz on Jun 28, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he is going to be a utility player...

and he is better than the current utility player, then why isn’t he on the roster? Sure he will sit on the bench a lot, but that is what a utility player does. Maysonet is at the age which is typically the peak of a baseball player’s ability, 27, and if he is going to be a utility player in the majors, he should be there now.

by clack on Jun 28, 2009 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As I stated above

I see no real reason why he couldn’t have been incorporated more into the line up for starts. Today is a perfect example. Keppinger is not a SS, nor will he ever be one, and he has built in playing time as a platoon at 3rd base. Tejada will need a rest day pretty regularly in the second half so there’s plenty of playing time available.

by DyingQuail on Jun 28, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Favoring the older guys again

I’ve been wondering (just like everyone else perhaps) why Maysonet hasn’t gotten more time split between 2B and 3B for this team. I mean, Keppinger isn’t bad out there and Matsui is (gasp) actually starting to come around a bit at the plate. I guess its better to get ABs in AAA than ride the pine in the big show then.

See you soon Maysonet!

B^2
"LeBron James is just an upgraded version of Ron Artest"
(Artest after Houston pummeled the Cavaliers 93-74)

by Nitroberg on Jun 28, 2009 9:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

WONDERFUL POST DQ!

I agree that today was the perfect day for Maysonet to start at SS. I agree with absolutely everything in this post and with clack saying that if he is to be a utility player in the future then he should be one NOW.

by Cor on Jun 28, 2009 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cooper and Michaels Terminated, Astros take NL Central

Jason Michaels has proved himself worthless. He is a checker in a chess match. He is a VHS tape in a DVD collection. He is a french fry in the order of onion rings. His stats prove it. His defense proves it. His ridiculous hair cut proves it. So long, Jason. May you never set spikes on our field again.

As for Cecil Cooper. In a word… clueless. He NEVER makes the correct decision. He has lost numerous games with his coaching “style”. He is responsible for every game the Astros lose in one way or another. Too many examples to choose from. Clueless Cooper is never agressive, never wise, never alert, and never correct.

The Astros are a coach away from 1st place in the NL Central.

by Fiction Rider on Jun 29, 2009 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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