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Lancaster Blues: Astros farm system has depth in the outfield

This really isn't about the team itself, but rather two members of it: Jon Gaston and T.J. Steele. And they are tearing apart California League pitching.

Steele: .383 avg., 6 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 25 RBI, .442 OBP, 1.123 OPS....in 24 games and 94 at bats!

Gaston: .321 avg., 20 2B, 9 3B, 17 HR, 52 RBI, .405 OBP, 1.083 OPS...in 68 games and 249 at bats! (thats 46 XBH)

Star-divide

While some of these unbelievable numbers can be credited to ClearChannel Stadium, the JetHawks' notoriously offensively-inflating stadium, they're still seeing the ball unbelievably well and hitting the snot out of it. 

Which brings up the blues. Why aren't they being promoted? The problem doesn't lie in these two gentlemen, but rather in that Corpus Christi, a level above, has more outfielders on the team than it can handle. Here they are (avg/obp/ops):

James Van Ostrand: (.280/.386/.880), 24 years old

Collin DeLome: (.259/.318/.814), 23 years old

Mitch Einertson: (.253/.318/.703), 23 years old

Josh Flores: (.239/.307/.651), 23 years old

Andrew Locke: (.345/.391/.937), 26 years old

Nick Moresi: (.231/.231/.462), 24 years old

So, first of all, Moresi and Flores should not be getting any significant playing time, right? That's fair enough. And then, there's Drew Locke. Why is he still in AA? With the numbers he has, he should either a) be promoted to AAA ASAP or b) be promoted to MLB to take the spot of Jason Michaels. So what's blocking his way? 

John Gall: (.238/.313/.681), 31 years old

Brian Bogusevic: (.286/.356/.776), 25 years old

Eli Iorg: (.209/.227/.530), 26 years old

Yordany Ramirez: (.269/.282/.716), 24 years old

Reggie Abercrombie:(.266/.313/.730), 27 years old

My plan is: promote Ramirez and Abercrombie. Why? Their offensive numbers don't particularly stand out or anything. But then again, Michaels and Erstad are around for one thing: DEFENSE. So cut them. And John Gall too. Abercrombie and Ramirez are defensive studs, and promoting them would let the organization move others around. Locke and Van Ostrand (or just Locke) to AAA, Gaston and Steele to AA. It just makes sense. 

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This is a great post, AFF. It’s great to get a look at pan-organizational depth at a position. With two drafts in the bag, there’s going to be a lot of pressure from the bottom over the next year, and I imagine a lot of guys are going to find themselves in the “high noon” situation that Nieve and Paulino found themselves in during spring training this year.

I think you can make a strong case for bringing Ramirez and Abercrombie up. I’ve not been terribly impressed with J. Michaels’ defense (or offense for that matter), and Darin Erstad just completely fell off the table this year (lack of playing time? or just age?). I think Abercrombie stands to be an improvement off the bench, especially when it comes to the power game against RHP. And I remember being impressed by his defense when we last saw him in the majors.

I think Ramirez is less likely to get called up…he had some attitude issues a little earlier in the season…mostly admiring his homeruns for far too long. It may have gotten so bad that he was deliberately plunked during a game which led to his being benched for 3 days, although it’s hard to get information on what exactly happened. His speed would make him an asset both as a pinch runner and as a late-inning defensive replacement. Yordany would make a good complement to Abercrombie since he’s got slightly better splits against LHP.

I feel bad for Flores because he had a knee injury that caused him to miss a full year of development in ‘08. He had a good May (.289/.354/.433), but he got hurt early in June, and now he’s out for the rest of the season.

It’s exciting to see, though, that we actually have some kind of organizational depth in the outfield now.

by AstroAndy on Jun 20, 2009 1:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This will never happen.

Because this plan makes way too much sense. I’ve been kind of wondering why Gaston hadn’t been promoted. Thanks for the insight bud.

by Irish Pete on Jun 20, 2009 1:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Great post...

…i agree with the idea of cutting micahels and erstad..this probbably wont happen until the end of the season though…Michaels and Erstad are respected veterans who im sure the front office wouldnt feel right bout cutting…This type of thing happens all the time in baseball…look at david ortiz…if russell branyon was having that kind of season on the mariners he would have been cut weeks ago…maybe we can use some of those outfielders as trade chips to bring in some pitching, though i would much rather call them up…

by The Bourn Believer on Jun 20, 2009 2:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The problem with promoting anyone

is that they wouldn’t get any consistent playing time. Before the season started, I think a lot of us assumed that Bourn would be benched by now, but the fact that he has turned into a downright good player means that won’t happen. Pence is also having a great season, and the same goes for Lee. The Astros have a pretty good starting outfield, and none of its members tend to miss much time. One would think Lee would need more time off, but he’s oddly something of an iron man out there (it probably helps that he doesn’t really exert himself).

A better manager might be able to find adequate playing time for everyone, but I’m not really confident that Coop can do that.

But you’re right about Michaels and Erstad. Michaels showed some flashes of offensive ability early on, but neither he nor Erstad are really doing anything.

I think calling up Abercrombie is a pretty obvious solution to the problem. I think DQ showed before the season began that a Reggie-Bourn platoon could do well in CF, and there’s no reason why he can’t replace Michaels as a right-handed PH and a true defensive replacement.

I don’t know if Ramirez is really the best option for replacing Erstad, however. Ideally, you’d want another left-handed bat. Bogusevic provides that, but promoting him brings up the consistent playing time problem again.

See, Reggie’s a player who is, for the most part, finished developing. He’s 27, and I think he pretty much is what he is going to be. If you can’t get him playing time every few days, that’s not too big of a deal.

But Bogusevic is still a prospect. He needs to be getting more than just pinch-hit PAs and the occasional defensive appearance. It’s the same problem you run into if you want to promote Ramirez or Towles.

Still, I think it’s pretty obvious that the Astros’ horrible bench can be addressed. Maybe it can’t be solved by just promoting rookies, but clearly something has to be done about it. Erstad and Michaels clearly aren’t getting the job done, after all.

Your friendly neighborhood Dreamshake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Jun 20, 2009 2:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

With Abercrombie, I think you’re right that he’s finished developing. His ceiling is as a backup OF, and he’s there…no real projection left. It’s a shame that we had to hire someone from outside the system to do a job that Abercrombie showed he can handle.

I think with J. Michaels, we were looking to re-create the Darin Erstad experiment of 2008…instead, neither J. Michaels nor Erstad himself are living up to 2008 Erstad standards.

I think it’s possible that Abercrombie did so well in his 60 plate attempts that Astros brass wanted to see if he can turn out as a starter and not just a bench guy, and that’s why they have him starting in AAA. His success with the Astros in 2008 didn’t carry over too much into his time back down in AAA, however, so maybe the front office is looking at him as more of a backup now.

Looking at the difference between his 2008 AAA stats (300 PA) and 2009 AAA stats (253 PA), they probably had him working on reducing his K rate and boosting his walk rate this year. His walks are up 3% this year and his K’s are down almost 4%. But his K/BB ratio is still a terrible 0.22, thanks to a 28% K rate. That being said, when he actually gets a hold of the ball, it usually goes for extra bases, and that’s the kind of off-the-bench surprise that we need more of on the big club.

by AstroAndy on Jun 20, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good points.

However, I don’t think Michaels’ main purpose is defensive. He is supposed to be the main PH. Erstad is suppose to be the primary defensive replacement in the OF and the main LH Pinch Hitter. Ideally I would replace both of them with someone from the minor league system. However, we don’t have a lot of LH options, like Lad said above, other than Bogusevic, and he won’t be helped by a PH role given his age.

I would go with either Abercrombie or Locke to take the Michaels role. Locke is at an age and organizational role where I wouldn’t worry if he sits on the bench and only gets occasional starts. And that is the role Abercrombie has previously had. Abercrombie probably makes more sense because he is a better defensive player, but I would be more curious to see how Locke hits at the ML level, even if it is a brief stint.

Given salary considerations, I would think that Michaels is more likely to get cut than Erstad..

by clack on Jun 20, 2009 2:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I was looking at Drew Locke’s Minor League Equivalencies, and in a big surprise to me, they held up astonishingly well…His BABIP had looked unsustainable when I first glanced at it, and I’ve seen such poor translations using that MLE tool before, that I expected to see a huge dropoff. But they’ve got him pegged as a .281/.315/.430 player in the big leagues.

The thing with Locke, though, will simply be whether he is capable of making adjustments. Now that teams are seeing him a second and third time around, his performance has started to sag. Here’s his OPS by month:

     April: 1.199
     May: 0.908
     June: 0.701

I know month-long sample sizes won’t be good windows onto his performance. This was just something I saw that I thought might weigh against an immediate call-up for Locke. In fact, to me it suggests that he should stay in a league where they already have a headstart on learning his tendencies, just to see if he can make the necessary adjustments.

by AstroAndy on Jun 20, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great point

Thanks for digging that up.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Jun 20, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Response

I agree with very many of the responses to this, however I just want to make this clear: I am no expert on baseball development or even these players. I’m sure the Astros brass doesn’t have the exact same view as I do, but they (hopefully) know these players better than I do. However, in a purely outsider perspective, I really just wonder what the harm would be to CHALLENGE these young players. I’m not in favor of rushing anybody, but if a player is clearly having sustained success in one setting, doesn’t it just seem logical to see if that player can handle a more difficult setting? Perhaps I’m just naive, but that seems right to me.

by astrosfanforever on Jun 20, 2009 7:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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