The results of that were not intuitive to me. I actually thought there’d be a lot more regulars around replacement level.

Interestingly, yesterday, the Fan Blogger at the chron was evaluating Wade’s trades. And I was looking at the numbers, and I think that, in terms of WAR, we’re going to win Lidge for Bourn.

Last year, as dominant as Brad Lidge was, 41-for-41, he was only worth 2.2 WAR. Bourn had a rough season, but I saw the Lidge-Bourn trade as one for years…trading a guy with only one year left before free agency for a gut with a lot less time on his clock. Anyway, a quick look at what Bourn has provided us with so far this season…2.0 WAR. That trade looks much better since Bourn flipped the switch.

He has improved because his plate discipline is similar to what it was in Philly and at AAA. From that perspective, it’s hard to criticize Wade. All you can expect from Wade is to make a good trade based on the available information at the time. And Bourn’s performance this year is more in line with what the available information showed. That information would indicate that Bourn has some flaws as a hitter which will keep him from becoming a superstar, but that he is good enough to be valuable.

If you criticize the Lidge-Bourn trade, it has to be based on claiming that Wade should have gotten more for Lidge. And it’s hard to know whether that is true or not. Last year, I said I would have preferred trading Lidge to the Mets for Milledge…but at this point in time, I look to be wrong (even though I still believe Milledge can be a good major leaguer—he is still very young—if a team manages his development better).

Statistics aside though Philly won a World Series after the trade, that will hang over the trade unless the Astros win a World Series with Michael Bourn. From a financial and statistical stand point the Astros might come out on the better end of the trade, however in the grand scheme of things the Philly’s won a championship.

to what Bourn has turned into. He’s better than he was in the minors…and after watching last season, I was very skeptical that he would ever turn out. He’s been a little lucky so far this year (.376 BABIP) but with his speed and skillset he should be able to maintain a higher than average……average.

but unfortunately his .376 BABIP screams regression to the mean. By looking at 3 year averages in all the the MLB the highest has been Chipper Jones and Manny at .360, with most of the “High BABIP” guys resting in the .330 range. Regressing Bourn back to the the .330 BABIP range will drop is BA to the .250-260 range. Regressing him the the “norm” of .300 is even worse and hopefully because of Bourn’s new high LD% we will not have to think a bout that.

Is Bourn still worth being an everyday player with a .260 BA and a .320 OBP. Of course with his stellar defense and speed on the base paths. The problem is that a .320 OBP guy is not someone that should be the lead off man.

Hopefully he and Tejada keep this type of “Luck” going all season, but in the long run they will regress back to the established norms of BABIP and therefore so will their production.