Miguel Tejada trade rumors. Is McLane giving up already?
by scalito on Jun 14, 2009 5:28 PM CDT
38 comments
There is a disturbing article on Yahoo's frontpage which discusses the possiblity of Tejada being traded before the deadline. As an Astros fan, this trade news is disconcerting: what exactly is McLane trying to do is the first question that pops in my mind. The Astros are four games back from the wildcard, and the division lead isn't that far off either, especially considering the struggles of the Brewers and Cubs. Is it time to mail it in? That is what I'm hoping some of you Astros fans can help me with so I can prepare for the dismantling of the team and/or key pieces of the broken franchise. Our pitching hasn't been that horrible, and my god if Oswalt pitches like he did yesterday, the Astros will at least hover above .500 for the remainder of the season.
Basically, I'm excited about this season but worried about the future -- I can smell a typical Astros 8 to 10 game winning streak around the corner. I heard our farm system is no longer last in the league, but I still don't know much about it. I'm just trying to uncover the motivation for trading someone batting .355. I want to win now. Let's hope McLame get's cold feet.
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If you watch the video, it's just idle speculation
This sort of thing has cropped up in the middle of the last few seasons. It’s nothing to worry over. Can your remember the last time Drayton McLane said “OK, this isn’t our year, let’s make some trades”? I can’t, and I’ve been following this team for a while.
Every year, there are 22 teams that don’t make the playoffs and the talking heads are always willing to declare a fire sale for any team they don’t think is worthy of the playoffs, even if there are still over 100 games left to play in the season.
Trades are harder to make than you’d think. And Tejada won’t go anywhere, especially if we keep playing like we have the last four or five series.
Depends on what you get for him
I’d listen to all offers.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
Yes
Tejada is batting .355-ish now, but that it doesn’t really appear sustainable just going through his peripheral rate stats, so if we can flip him to help restock the farm system at his peak value, why not?
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jun 15, 2009 12:20 AM CDT reply actions
Don't see any GMs wanting to take him
and giving good value in return. Hell, the Astros are only four out at the moment which may be an illusion, but it would be weird to see Drayton give up considering how he made those two trades when the Astros were well out last year.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
yeah, I don't think you can trade Tejada when the team is still in the NL Central hunt.
At this point, the division is wide open to very every team in the division. And trading Tejada would be viewed as a “give up” move by the fan base. I don’t see a Tejada trade happening at this point. Yeah, Tejada’s BA will probably come down to the .300 – .310 range by late summer, but I have to think that most of the teams who might want him know that and would appropriately discount his value. As I’ve said before, the fact that most teams don’t consider Tejada a legitimate shortstop, defensively, will make his trade value much lower than people might think. And, of course, his salary makes him hard to move too.
I think you trade Tejada now . . .
don’t forget that he was good enough in the first half last year to be an all-star before he tired in the second half and ended up sub .300 with 32 GIDP. Tejada’s trade value is highest now and unfortunately that trade value seems to be to the in division Cardinals. If you keep him to the end of the year you risk losing him for nothing at all. Even if he keeps up his amazing run the only way you get anything for him is to offer him arbitration and have him turn it down. But with the way that many contact negotiations went this last summer do you think there is any way he turns down a $10M year in arb? Then you just have the same aging SS problem you have this year blocking up your system. Don’t forget the main question of this too . . . the Astros are losing money big time due to low attendance . . . turning over a high salary player for the future of the franchise makes sense on many levels. I am for this deal, I am not sure we wouldn’t be better off, especially if we can get a young MLB ready INF (not 1B) to go forward.
at this point, I wouldn't favor bringing Tejada back next year, unless he played 3d base.
I think it is plausible he might settle for a reasonable and lower salary. Otherwise, I would offer arbitration and take my chances. But I don’t think Tejada is causing a problem “blocking up the system.” The Astros don’t have any shortstops who are near the major leagues whom I would worry about being blocked. Our shortstop draftees this year are at least 3 years away from the majors. If Tejada switched to 3d base, potentially he might block Chris Johnson. But I am not convinced that Johnson is good enough to be a major league hitter. Maybe he proves me wrong by the end of the year, though.
I'd like to see Manzella get a real shot before his talent just totally wastes on the vine
And moving Tejada to 3B, with Manzella at short, would be a good way to start 2010. This would allow Blum (or whoever next year’s counterpart is) to play a more proper role as a bench/utility guy.
I think Tejada will be re-signed for next year, I just don’t trust Ed Wade to give him a contract that doesn’t hamstring us in acquiring some other area of need.
The problem with Holding onto Tejeda and running him through arbitration is that
unfortunately he would be better off accepting arbitration and abd the Astros would be stuck at the 8-10M range for Tejeda at SS/3B. Add that to the increase in Wandy and Valverde’s salary and there is no room for other acquisitions. Even without the additional payroll the team is at 88M.
With just moderate increases in the arbitration numbers of Wandy, Pence, Bourn, and Keppinger the payroll should be over 90 M.
The best course of action would be to hope that Valverde comes back strong and he can be dealt at the deadline. Thar leaves enough wiggle room that if Tejeda does accept the Arb, it won’t blow the budget and the team has to make move like last off season.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
I think you may overrate how much Tejada would get in arbitration.
The arbitration awards next year should start to reflect the reduction in free agent pricing last year. A team may or may not want to bank on that. And we see that the Astros are indeed risk averse on arbitration. Arbitration isn’t an irrational process, and Tal Smith is the best at persuading arbitrators to buy into view. But if you get an arbitration award you don’t like, you can always trade the player then.
I Agree
And there may be an additional benefit to arbitration over a standard re-signing…even if you pay more in arbitration, you are only locked in for one year, whereas if Tejada re-signs, it is likely to be for a multi-year contract.
We will probably have a budget problem in the offseason and something is going to have to give. But considering where we have some semblance of organizational depth, Valverde is more likely to be jettisoned than Tejada. The playoff picture would have to be pretty dismal to get rid of him at the trade deadline, and given the way arbitration/free agency works, I have to imagine we won’t be offering Valverde arbitration…there’s too big of a risk that he accepts, unless he starts telegraphing that he wants a multi-year contract.
If you sit a 90M after eveyone else but
Tejeda and Valverde, how do you expect to rebuild the pitching staff with no room left over in the budget with those two guys reaching arbitration. As it is the team is sitting at 102M. If Uncle Drayton is complaining about the payroll now there is little reason to believe that there is any more room in the budget.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
The problem is that most of arbitration
is based off of historic precedence. Historic precedence will hurt the Astro’s significantly on Tejada’s arbitration figure. There has been no dip in arbitration figures, especially wit hthe dramatic increase we saw last off season. If anything the historic rate will increase not decrease.
As far as trade him if he does get that value, then you are stuck with the problem that you might not get anyone willing ot pick him up at that price and instead decide to wait for the Astro’s to eat some money or release him out right before the season at 20% of his contract. Either way the Astros lose on the scenario.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
my point is that arbitration will always work on 1 year behind economic condtions,
The parties can and do use free agent signings from the prior year to bolster their cases. Since we are talking about free agent arbitration, and not team control arbitration, that is the most comparable data. I think a good case can be made that older sluggers who don’t defend well were the biggest losers in free agency last year. Last year also wasn’t a good year for middle infielder salaries. Now I’ll admit that I’m assuming Tejada will be hitting something more like .280 – .290 by the end of the season. If he is hitting .350 at the end of the season, his value will be a lot higher.
The problem is that agents tend to use
historic arbitration figures plus inflation for their baseline based upon their previous salary to determine what they consider market value. There is a reason why very few teams go to arbitration with veteran Free Agents. It is not the fear that the player will win necessarily. I is the problem that while going through the arbitration process that player ties up hi arbitration figure in your budget.
To add to the problem the difference between the Players offer and the Owners offer rose by 6% last year. Players are winning more often now vs. 10 years ago. Teams that have a tight budget can’t afford to lose at this point, not when the the gap between the 2 figures continue to increase year after year.
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=492&Itemid=65
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
all but one of the arbitrations (David Weathers) in that link for 2009 are team control arbitration, as opposed to free agent arbitration. There really isn’t anything that is reasonably applicable to Tejada. All I can is that I was amazed that Smith and Wade won their arbitration for Mark Loretta last year (at something like $2 million) when I believed that Loretta had a good case for his $4 million. I also tend to believe that Tejada is sincere when he says that he wants to stay in Houston and that he feels like he owes McLane and the Astros for standing behind him during his legal troubles. I think there is a good chance he might sign for a reasonable salary, particularly when he knows that he might end up like Randy Wolf if he doesn’t accept a reasonable offer.
Then at that point you don't get his compp picks anyways
the entire problem with this scenario is that it is VERY unlikely that Tejada will be able to continue at this pace with his .349 BABIP. With his walk rate below 3% now can you expect him to last this year much less be productive next year.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
No he isn't going to hit at his current rate.
But, if you look at his comparables, he is likely to be reasonably productive over the next few years. His HR power is down, but he is on a pace to hit 50 doubles. I think he is likely to stay in the .800 OPS range over the next couple of years. That is why I don’t have a problem with signing him to play 3d base next year, so long as he agrees to a reasonable salary.
But the problem is that you arent going to get a reasonable salary
best case you get him at 7-10M. Now lets not forget that even though his best attributes by far are his arm it does not mean he will become a league average 3B. Ask Texas about Young. He has the exact same tool set with a little more range than Tejada and he is considered in the bottom 1/3 in defense at 3B.
You can pick up a guy that plays atleast league average 3B and a SP for the 7-10M it will cost to get you a slightly above average offensive and bottom 1/3 defensive Tejeda to play 3B.
Bad idea across the board. You downgrade the defense at 3B and block the only legit CINF prospect the team has, Johnson, all in one fell swoop.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
I actually think that SS Tommy Manzella is a better IF prosepect at AAA than Chris Johnson is at 3B. At least right now. Johnson may figure something out by the end of the season. But at the moment, it looks like Tejada would be blocking the better prospect if he stayed at SS.
The problem I have with Manzella is that
it is taking him a .357 BABIP to pull his average up to .296 in AAA. His major league equivalent of those numbers is a .248 AVG, a .294 OBP and .618 OPS. That is not something I would be screaming to see as the starting SS next year. Even if his BABIP normalized in the high range of .330, his OBP would fall to the break even line of .330 this year in AAA.
Johnson at least has his injury as a reason to explain his dampened numbers this year and a better MLB statistical profile than Manzella.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
my crystal ball
says you won’t have to worry about Wandy because he will be traded to the Brewers…
oh wait, it was a dream. Hey I can type in my dream!
I would be so cool with this
if only the Brewers weren’t in the same division.
Your friendly neighborhood Dreamshake mod.
Wandy traded . . .
this is a great point that I wanted to bring up . . . everyone keeps thinking of Wandy as this young pitcher that is still up and coming (at least those in my fantasy leagues do) and if you do a little searching you will notice that he is 30!!! Additionally he is only 16 months younger than Roy-O . . . he should be trade bait as well. He has never finished a season with a WHIP under 1.31 and he is 30 with one double digit win season under his belt . . . he was 10-10 . . . if he is not a classic sell high right now candidate I don’t know who in the MLB is.
Wandy should have several more good years left.
I wouldn’t trade him unless some team offered a huge bounty in return. Otherwise he is just too valuable, when you consider that it would take $10 million to sign a pitcher of his quality on the free agent market. He is still under team control and remains affordable. Wandy’s improvement has been predictable if you follow his periperhals over the last three years. And, yes, he is 30 years old, but the old baseball saying is that lefthanded pitchers often don’t develop and reach their potential as early as righthanders.
I think he's got plenty left in him, too.
But that’s kind of my point. I think that, after Pence, he’d bring the greatest return in trade amongst the Astros players.
The way I see it is this: he’s a legitimate #2 starter when he’s healthy, but he’ll never be a championship-caliber team’s ace. It obviously depends on what is offered, but I’d be willing to part with him. Same goes for Valverde.
Your friendly neighborhood Dreamshake mod.
I like Valverde, but Hawk impressed me with how he filled in. So if they do deal Valverde, he have options for the 9th.
"He walked 18."
"New league record!"
"Struck out 18."
"Another new league record! In addition he hit the sportswriter, the public address announcer, the bull mascot twice...also new league records! But, Joe, this guy's got some serious shit."
Guys we have to consider would this team win it all if we made the playoffs. I have to say NO. We need to rebuild the minor leagues and we need to do it know. We have no top prospect ready at 1st, 2nd 3rd or pitchers. I want to clarify Top Prospect someone that can hope to be a Starter and maybe be a long term option. I am tired of us playing 40 year olds at 3rd and a guyat 2nd that goes on the DL everytime he goe to the bathroom!!!
Berkman, Oswalt, Lee and Tejada are getting up there in age and it is only a matter of time before they start playing like it. We have to have some kids that we can throw to wolves and get this team moving toward a championship!!!!
I think anybody can win if they get to the playoffs.
Look at the 84 win Cardinals team which won the World Series in 2006. Or look at the Rockies team that went to the World Series, a team which was just “hot” but not really that good.
I’d rather not look at the ’06 Cards, considering we were one game from taking their place.
"He walked 18."
"New league record!"
"Struck out 18."
"Another new league record! In addition he hit the sportswriter, the public address announcer, the bull mascot twice...also new league records! But, Joe, this guy's got some serious shit."
Thanks for the feedback
I learned a lot about the Miggy situation. The arbitration stuff was good too.
Just Maybe the trade will work out
If the Astros can trade Tejada for an ace pitcher, the deal should be worth it. Maysonnett can play short, Kata can play second. Astros wouldn’t lose much in the hitting department either. I just wonder if they can trade Tejada for Peavy?
astros wouldn't lose much in the hitting department?
Kata is a lifetime .240 hitter in the majors. Maysonet is a career .257 hitter in the minors.
Tejada
won’t get us an Ace pitcher, certainly not Peavy. he’s a half-season rental.
by littlevisigoth on Jun 16, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Tejada
What about Tejada for Brandon Wood and a pitcher? Wood can play short or 3rd. The Angels need some help and they don’t want to play Wood. Also Tejada’s a free agent, so they wouldn’t have to commit to him long term.
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