Hunter Pence, All-Star

Inspired by Joe Sheehan's all-star ballot at BPro, I decided to actually fill out my own. Part of Sheehan's criteria when naming players is sustained production - don't vote for a player having a "flukey" season over the guy "we all know" is the better player. Personally, I think that's pretty boring. If Adrian Gonzalez is having a better season than Pujols (like Berkman last season), then I'll vote for him over Albert. God forbid we have some new blood in the ASG.

Anyways, here's Sheehan's NL outfield vote:

Outfield: Carlos Beltran, Mets; Manny Ramirez, Dodgers; Adam Dunn, Nationals. It looks like a protest vote, or that I'm making a statement, or what have you. It's not. Even with missing eight weeks due to a suspension for violating the drug policy—a presumed use of steroids—Ramirez keeps this spot for me. I do not see any argument that steroids are the reason for his performance, this year or previously; I also don't see where a suspension makes you ineligible for an All-Star berth. Finally, the NL outfield pool is not what it was a few years back. As in the AL, there's a drop-off after the top two guys to a group of comparably valued players with limited track records or a flaw of some kind. I couldn't take two from the pool ahead of Ramirez. He's just that much better than the field, especially if you want to just look at NL performance.

Looking back, I think Ryan Braun might have been a better choice than Dunn was, though Dunn isn't an unreasonable pick. The two are similar players, Braun growing into a better version of what Dunn has been for the last eight years, with fewer walks, more contact, and a bit better outside the batter's box. Dunn over Braun is the one pick on the ballot that I wouldn't mind having back, and what bugs me is that I missed Braun last year as well. I think I'm mentally overcorrecting for his move from third base to left field, downgrading the value of his performance too much. Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Lee, and Alfonso Soriano all caught my eye here as well.

My first reaction was basically what Sheehan anticipated: Manny's suspended. Now, he's clearly been the best left fielder in the league, but I wouldn't vote for a guy who went on a tear and then missed two months because of injury, and I'm not going to vote for a player who misses that time because the league suspended him.

But, beyond that, the main problem I have with the ballot is that he's got two left fielders. Well, a left fielder and a guy who stands in left field (Dunn). I think Dunn's deserving of a vote (maybe not over Braun), but I think when you're filling out a ballot, it's probably a good idea to come up with a complete outfield.

So who's the best right fielder in the NL this season? I narrowed my list down to five players: Jay Bruce, Brad Hawpe, Justin Upton, Ryan Ludwick, and our boy Hunter. Other than Jason Werth, virtually all other starting NL right fielders have OPS+ values below 100 this season.

For reference, here's a quick summary of each player's stats. I've included the basic batting stats, OPS+, wOBA, and UZR/150 (instead of just UZR, because larger numbers are easier to look at).

via i282.photobucket.com

Some notes:

• I continue to be amazed by Bruce's fielding stats. He's just never struck me as a great fielder, and yet his numbers were good this year and last. 
• Pence leads the group in both Batting Average and OBP. He's also a very good fielder, second only to Bruce's ridiculous line.
• Going by wOBA and OPS+, Brad Hawpe is the best hitter of the bunch, but he's also a relatively poor fielder. He's not as bad as Sheehan's pick, Ludwick, but he's below average. His numbers are likely skewed by his home park, but the OPS+ formula should correct for that.
  
• Upton is hitting the cover off the ball, though Chase Field is also an extreme hitter's park.
• The "conventional" stats are kind of interesting. Pence leads the group in stolen bases, though he's only stealing at a little over 70%. That's a lot better than what he typically does, though (last season, he was closer to 50%). It's a little early to make many decisions on that, but that's true of everything here.
• I think a case could be made that Pence is running the bases better than everyone else in our group (maybe not Upton), given his run total. The Astros aren't exactly a good offensive club, so it's surprising he's crossing the plate so often (which partly explains his poor RBI total).
• While OPS+ and wOBA say otherwise, EQA shows Pence as (just barely) a better hitter than Hawpe. EQA does adjust for park effects, and it takes into account stolen bases.

The way I see it, the race for the starting NL Right Fielder spot is between Hunter and Hawpe. And the fact that Hunter will save his team (should he keep up this pace) 12 more runs in the field across an entire season means he's the better choice.

Thus, it seems pretty clear to me that Hunter Pence should be the National League's starting right fielder. We can argue about whether or not we should really be choosing players based upon a few months of data, or if we really need to pick a true right fielder, but (of the players I examined) it's clear that Hunter's having the best season of the National League's all-star caliber right fielders.

As an aside, I fully expect this from Sheehan and BPro: a bias towards established sluggers and an outmoded valuation of defense.