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Ryan Dempster: Pitch selection and success

The Astros were able to notch a victory for the first time this season, in large part by scoring against Cubs starter Ryan Dempster in his last two innings of work. On the whole, Dempster pitched fairly well: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. After being a relief pitcher from 2004-2007, Dempster returned to a starter's role in 2008, and did so seamlessly.

What could he have done to go from slightly above mediocre reliever to ace starter on the the NL Central Champions? One pretty important area where he altered his approach was in his pitch selection.

Looking at his 2007 and 2008 seasons, Dempster seemed to almost pitch backwards. Meaning that he threw his fastball much more frequently as a starter than as a reliever:

Season Fastball Slider Changeup
2007 46.1% 33.3% 20.7%
2008 55.% 27.4% 16.7%

 

A lot of what he did as a pitcher did not change much: his percentage of groundballs/flyballs induced, swing percentages and contact rates remained fairly constant. What changed a great deal for a one season flucutation were his strikeout and walk rates. He struck out nearly half a batter more per nine innings (7.43 in 2007 vs. 8.14 in 2008), and walked roughly three quarters of a batter less per nine innings (4.05 in 2007 vs. 3.31 in 2008).

Does throwing his fastball more mean he was more aggressive as a starter than a reliever? Batters were slightly more apt to swing at balls in the strike zone in 2008, than in 2007. Again, this all seems backwards. Relievers are known as strike zone pounders, never ones to want to pitch tenatively. They're firemen, summoned from the bullpen to put out offensive flames. Walking batters is some of the best fuel to keep a blaze going. Perhaps when he became a starter, Dempster learned this lesson or at least took it more to heart.

The sample size is not significant, but let's take a look at what Dempster did last night, in terms of pitch selection:

Pitch Number Thrown % Thrown of Total
Four Seam Fastball 43 47.77
Changeup 12 13.33
Slider 30 33.33
Curveball 3 3.33
Two Seam Fastball 2 2.22

 

It's just one start, but his pitch selection had more in common with his style in 2007 than in 2008. He struggled the most in the fifth and sixth innings, where his strike percentage was below 60% in both. While it remains to be seen how Ryan Dempster will approach his 2009, it does appear that he is most effective when he throws his fastball with greater frequency.

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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So what's up with Rich Harden?

I can’t find anything that indicates he’s injured, and it would seem that he’s the Cubs’ true 2nd starter, so why didn’t he start last night?

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 8, 2009 10:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

DQ and I were wondering about that too

Lilly is pitching tonight for them, but I don’t know why Harden is down in their rotation. Maybe it has something to do with rest days/off days?

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 8, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

still recovering from food poisoning, maybe?

I’d ask over at bcb, but they have that fascist waiting period.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 8, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Harden had a bad spring training...

That’s my recollection anyway. Whether that means he had arm issues which needed rest—-I don’t know.

by clack on Apr 8, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

here are some Harden links of interest...

Cubs reveal Harden has shoulder tear…

Look at the photo in this spring training article about Harden.

Mar. 20, ESPN blog:

Harden, 27, has been brought along slowly this spring because of his history of shoulder problems. He has made two starts so far, going 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA.

by clack on Apr 8, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hehe

Had not heard it called a “fascist waiting period” but I will say thanks for letting me join without waiting, you guys have been cool. Bascially, the Cubs approach is one of caution with Harden. When he is healthy and on he is an ace. But you can almost always expect 20-25 missed starts from the guy. With rock solid TRL and Demp showing consistancy on the mound those guys are the natural 2 & 3 guys in the rotation. He did get shelled during ST, however most of the era numbers came from that game over the weekend at Yankee Stadium. So yes, he is still recovering — he is scheduled for start on April 10 vs. Brew Crew.

"Ask Dad. He'll know. And on the off chance he doesn't, he'll make something up"

by StevenABQ on Apr 8, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the cubs want to limit his innings pitched

to try to keep him healthy the entire year.

by tootle on Apr 8, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What you have found is consistent with an analysis I read ...

a couple of years ago (before the 07 season, I think). I saw it at baseballanalysts.com, but I don’t have time to look through their archives to retrieve it. The article found that Dempster threw the lowest percentage of strikes in the majors. He was the Cubs’ closer at the time, and it indicated to me that hitters should be very patient with him. However, last year, it seemed like patience alone didn’t work against Dempster. Your analysis seems to explain why. For a guy with his history, it will be interesting to see if can continue to throw strikes.

by clack on Apr 8, 2009 11:27 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

pheww

I’m glad a reputable source found the same things I did..

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 8, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good work

But all I care about is giving props for rocking Urban as your avatar.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Apr 8, 2009 12:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

and all I care about is give YOU props

for knowing that my profile pic is of Urban Shocker

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 8, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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