Offense stout as Astros beat Dodgers again

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 22, 2009 9:57 PM CDT

Another W against a good Los Angeles club. Roy Oswalt was great for five innings, then he had his troubles in the sixth, giving up bombs to Manuelito, Andre Ethier and Casey Blake.

The Astros responded immediately, with Jason Michaels knocking in Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee with a double in the sixth. After taking the lead 5-4, the Dodgers failed to hold off the Astros charge again, as Lance Berkman and Ivan Rodriguez keyed the rally with RBIs.

LaTroy Hawkins disposed of LA in the ninth in 1, 2, 3 fashion.

Tomorrow is our first chance to bring out the brooms in 2009. Wandy takes the ball. Death by curveball for the Bums, methinks...

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A complete post game wrap can be found here.

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The more I think about it

the more I like the idea of giving the ball to Hawkins a little more often in 9th inning situations.

Valverde could very likely be way too expensive for us next year, and it’d be nice to know if Hawkins can step in as closer. I know some people have mentioned that Hawkins hasn’t fared too well as a closer before, and I don’t have the working knowledge of things like leverage stats to actually investigate this (HLP…is this your area?).

I know that just looking at traditional statistics, Valverde has been a better pitcher than Hawkins, but I’m wondering if the drop in quality would be justified by the cash savings…especially if we were able to use that cash to beef up other areas of the team.

by AstroAndy on Apr 22, 2009 10:26 PM CDT reply actions

hmmm

it COULD be my area…no relation to my user name on here though! I’ll do a little investigating and see if i can’t turn anything up

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 22, 2009 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Hawkins was a closer for the Cubs and blew some important saves...

and then had to deal with the media/fan pressure after that. He was more or less run out of town because of all the booing, etc. I think he had some problems as the Twins’ closer before that. He may have had some trouble closing for the Giants after he left the Cubs. But in between all of that, he was usually very good when used in the set up role. So, he kind of gained the reputation as a pitcher who thrives in the set up role. Therefore, teams tended to sign him for set up, instead of closer, roles. He probably was happy with that. You had to feel sorry for him over the abuse he took in Chicago.

I’m not sure a leverage study would help much. When he has been a set up guy in the 8th, the leverage may have been higher than as a closer. He is a logical choice to fill in with Valverde out, because he does have considerable closer experience, albeit some of it with bad results.

Given his history, I would be reluctant to make him a permanent closer. However, I’ve always like the idea of lefty / righty pitchers to share closer duties. If the Astros had a tough LHP to share the job with Hawkins, it might be interesting. At this point, I’m not sure I see Wesley Wright doing it.

by clack on Apr 22, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Shouldn't be a "closer"

As you describe, Hawkins may not be able to handle the pressure of the role. But I don’t understand the idea of the closer in the first place. If you have a one-inning, lights-out horse, put him in the 7th, 8th, or 9th, whichever one has the big guys coming up. Or put him in the middle of one of those innings, if they get a man or two on. The whole idea of creating a made-up position like “closer” which sucks up your best bullpen guy, all for the benefit of a contrived and new statistic, is stupid.

by Xan on Apr 23, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Pence

finally came through when it matters tonight. This might get him going now, and I think the next time he comes up with bases loaded….grand slam?

hunterpencefan. Astros nerd.

by hunterpencefan on Apr 22, 2009 10:28 PM CDT reply actions

Here's what I don't get:

You’re Joe Torre. It’s the bottom of the 8th, and you’ve got a one-run lead. You need to hold that lead for six outs, and you only have three to increase it. Granted, you’ll have a PH, then your two greatest OBP threats coming up in the 9th, but you really need to hold that lead.

And Lance Berkman – a guy in a slump, but one who is still getting on base and has hit a few homers over the past two weeks – is leading off the home inning.

So you’ve got a few choices:

A) Bring out Broxton. Yeah, I know, you’re Torre and you’re a very traditional (even if that “tradition” only goes back to TLR) manager, so you’re not likely to call your closer in the eighth, but why not? He hasn’t been used since the 17th, and he can handle two innings, right? He’s a big guy.

B) Bring out your LOOGY. We all know about Lance’s platoon splits.

C) Bring out your hot hand: Ronny Belisario. A rookie who has been nails over the past few weeks, but who gave up a run last night.

What do you do, Joe? WHAT. DO. YOU. DO?

(“Well gee Lad, I’ll go with C. Duh”)

Okay, so you brought in the righty and he gave up a homer. No biggie. Just gotta get through the inning without any more damage. But (uh oh!) Pence just doubled and you’re in trouble again. And Geoff freaking Blum (!!!) is coming up to bat! And Pudge is behind him!

So, do you:

A) Just pitch to Blum. He’s hitting well as of late, but no point in playing scared now. There are 2 outs already!
B) Pitch around him. Sure, there’s two outs, but no point in toying with fate. You learned your lesson after Berkman kicked your ass.
C) Intentionally walk him. Bill James be damned! Pudge is nothing compared to what he once was, and he’s hitting .255/.286/.362 right now. And it sets up that critical platoon matchup you didn’t care about five minutes ago.

Honestly, I think the Dodgers lost this one mostly because Torre made some inexplicable decisions (yeah, the Big Puma and Pence had a lot to do with it, too, but that’s not the point).

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 23, 2009 12:48 AM CDT reply actions

put Kuo on the mound at 8th, Astros might be done...

He is setup man. he is lefty but tearing both right-hander and left-hander.

If Kuo was not hurt or something, Torre did play the lose by himself.

by HubertL on Apr 23, 2009 4:44 AM CDT up reply actions

my recollection is that Torre used Rivera in the 8th frequently....

with the Yankees. Back in Lidge’s early closer days, when Garner would use Lidge in the 8th, JD would point to Torre as the guy who popularized the “long save.” So, I don’t know that Torre is tradition-bound on this issue. However, maybe he doesn’t like using Broxton in the same way as Rivera.

I like HubertL’s idea of using Kuo on Berkman. The downside of using a LHP on Berkman is that Pence is pretty good against LHP. All I know is I LIKE the choice Torre made, based on the results.

by clack on Apr 23, 2009 7:41 AM CDT up reply actions

Torre lost this one.

I am a Dodgers fan living in Houston, and was at the game last night. I totally agree with this point; Joe lost it. Belisario may have been a defensible choice to start the inning (Kuo has been dismal his last two outings) notwithstanding the advantage of turning Berkman around had he gone with a left (Will Ohman anyone?). But after the home run, and the ridiculous wild pitch on an intentional walk (to GEOFF BLUM?!!), it was clear Belisario did not have his best stuff (in which “best” is a relative term).

I would have, at the very least, made a change at that point. Given the Stros lineup, Broxton to start the 8th would have been a gutsy move. Torre is big on trust (read his book with Verducci and you can see) and he doesn’t trust Broxton yet like he trusted Rivera.

by BlueBulldog on Apr 23, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

All I can think of

is that Torre might be placing a lot more value on short-term stats: Blum’s been very hot lately, Berkman hasn’t. That’s not a horrible way to manage or anything, but it seems to me that when facing your opponent’s best hitter, it’s probably best to try to reduce his impact as much as possible. If I’m Cecil Cooper and I’m facing the Phillies’ 3-4-5 of Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning, I’m damn sure going to send out Byrdak or Wright to get those outs.

And it’s the same with Berkman. Add in the fact that the pitcher was following him, and that the Astros don’t really have any more right-handed bats on the bench (Michaels had been used; Smith’s available, but he’s awful; same goes for Quintero; I guess you could send out Hampton), and it just seems so obvious to bring in a lefty.

You can’t really blame Torre for the wild pitch, but that (and the homer) should have been a signal that Bellisario was either losing his command or nerve.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 23, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions

First thing I thought

Ironical with Hunter in the picture about the “stout” offense – I know, not logical. I only watched the highlights. Was that Manny shot a record of some sort?

by ol Pete on Apr 23, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions

The weird thing

is that I don’t remember the ball flying over the wall all that often before. It’s happened, but it’s pretty rare. You’d see balls go out of the park or hit the train tracks a few times a season. I’ve seen it happen like 6 times so far this year. I think the idea that the balls being used this year are juiced might be pretty accurate.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 23, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions

I haven't heard anything about it as a record...but maybe something will come out today....

the ball cleared the park and went to the street below, but that has happened before.

by clack on Apr 23, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions

the past few games haven't been recorded,

but so far lance has the farthest home run this season at the juicebox, 435 ft

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_413&type=ballpark

we can check back in a few days when they get the data for the manny ball

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 23, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions

According to Hit Tracker

It had a true distance of 437 ft.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Apr 23, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions

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