How old is too old to be a Prospect?
by farm_stros on Apr 22, 2009 6:00 AM CDT
in Minor League News
7 comments
This week we witnessed the trade of Drew Sutton, who will soon be 26. Part of the discussion surrounding this trade concerned whether or not Sutton is really a prospect. His "advanced" age was often used as proof that he is not. I did a little research in hopes of adding a little insight to the discussion about when a prospect is too old to be a prospect.
I researched 26 players who were in last year's all-star game. The starting position players, 2 starting pitchers, and two relievers from each league. My criteria for determining when a player "reached the major leagues" was 200 at bats or 50 innings pitched in a given season.
Keep reading for the results
Two ineligible: Kosuke Fukudome, Ichiro Suzuki
Turned 27 during first year: Brad Lidge
26: Josh Hamilton, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Chase Utley
25: Kevin Youkilis, Geovanny Soto, Alfonso Soriano, Billy Wagner
24: Dustin Pedroia, Lance Berkman, Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday,
23: David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Tim Lincecum
22: Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Roy Halladay, Joe Mauer
21: Alex Rodriguez, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster,
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according to Baseball-Reference.com....
Brad Lidge pitched 8 innings at 25 and 85 innings at 26. Maybe different references use varying cut offs for age during a year?
That makes me follow up with B-R…Papelbon pitched 34 innings at 24. Utley is shown with 152 plate appearances at age 24. OK…now I just re-read your article and that doesn’t meet your cut off. Now, with that in mind, those two hit the threshold at ages 25 instead of 26, according to B-R.
I don’t have time to look further, but it seems like Baseball-Reference is 1 year earlier on the ages compared to yours.
by clack on Apr 22, 2009 8:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not a good comparison
Most of your ages are off, further, setting the line at 50 IP for relievers is ridiculous. Papelbon had 34 innings of sub-3.00 ball as a 24 year old. I don’t think anyone would argue that he hadn’t arrived. Furthermore, nearly all of those players had substantial, and long term, success in the minors before their big league careers took off. Sutton has one good year. To compare him to Chase Utley is ridiculous. In five years any mention of Drew Sutton’s name will be followed by “oh yeah, I remember that guy.”
by seanbergmanrules on Apr 22, 2009 11:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not the greatest comparison, yes
But doesn’t it still make the point that viable prospects are pretty much going to come onto the scene relatively young?
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by Stephen Higdon on Apr 22, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify on the ages
I attempted to avoid confusion, but think I added to it. In determining the age a player “made it” I calculated the age they turned during the year they broke the threshold. For example, Utley was born in 1978. He broke the threshold in 2004. He turned 26 in December 2004. I think that is where some of the age differences came from.
seanbergmanrules, you make a good point that it would be a more valid comparison to have a different threshold for relievers. I agree that it would be ridiculous to compare Sutton and Chase Utley and conclude that they are equal or close to equal as players/prospects. However, I am not seeing where I did that.
by farm_stros on Apr 22, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, you should probably use Baseball-Reference's ages...
Baseball publications and teams use a “convention” of sorts to state ages—based on mid-season age. Given the confusion here, you can see why they would follow an accepted way of describing ages. The way you state the age makes it more difficult to compare ages. (FYI, under your method, Drew Sutton is 26 years old, rather than his current age of 25.)
Baseball-Reference says that ages are stated as of midnight June 30 of the year. (Sutton’s birth day, by the way, is June 30, which means he is 26 this season, according to B-R.)
I agree about using a lower threshold for relievers.
by clack on Apr 22, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes.
even though this comparison is mostly based on how early “elite” players made it to the big leagues. I would guess that a somewhat higher proportion of lower level players made it to the big leagues later than elite players.
I answered “yes” to DQ’s question, because most of the “later” prospects above (even if stated 1 year later than the B-R age) had exceptional reasons for being so late to the majors. Lidge was identified as “major league ready” earlier in his career, but injuries delayed him. Josh Hamilton had well known addiction events which make him a very unusual case. Soriano started out his minor league career in Japan.
by clack on Apr 22, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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