Felipe Paulino's big day wasted as Astros bullpen falters

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 19, 2009 4:36 PM CDT

There are roughly two things I want to point out after this loss.

1) There were several high leverage situations that faced the Astros today, and time after time, the team failed to one degree or another to take advantage of them. Lance Berkman on two separate occasions, and Ivan Rodriguez in his only AB of the game weren't able to get the job done by scoring runners on second and third. Here's graphical evidence of our team's collective ineptitude:

Sunday_medium

2) Point two is really just a continuation of point one: the Astros left 24 men on base today. Not two, not four, twenty four. This statistical improbability of this is dwarfed only by the team's inability to do anything offensively. Don't get me wrong, it wasn't just the offense that screwed the pooch today. Chris Sampson, Geoff Geary and Tim Byrdak all gave up runs. It's a shame though, that as well as Felipe Paulino pitched today, he wasn't able to record a "W".

Box Score and Recap from the Reds Reporter, here.

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well

anyway besides the stros blowing it themsleves leaving 13 on base, that horrible call also prolly blew the game…woulda still been down 1 but still had 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs left in that inning and single gives us the game (also prolly 3 only for CIN since valverde NOT sampson woulda been in the game)

Instant replay should involve other things like that, foulballs, and Swinging-nonswinging strikes too (that also killed us as Pudge had a called strike that was a ball, he woulda walked and not K’ed)

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Apr 19, 2009 4:46 PM CDT reply actions

Tough game...

…but the im not worried about…second week of the season just ended and Pualino had a very good outing…well get out there tomorrow and get a win…lets go Bourn

by The Bourn Believer on Apr 19, 2009 6:17 PM CDT reply actions

I absolutely love

that, in all the highlights presented on BBTN, they give us exactly 0 of anything Paulino did. It’s cool, ESPN, it’s totally not like those of us who didn’t see the game might want to see how a guy who struck out 6 was doing. Fucking yankee sob’s.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 19, 2009 7:56 PM CDT reply actions

If it makes you feel any better

there were some highlight worthy plays in the Brewers/Mets game that BBTN and MLB network didn’t bother with. BBTN was infatuated with a play where a fan interfered with a fly ball. Despite showing it a few times and chattering about it, they were wrong about what the umpire did – he called Hardy out, judging that the outfielder would have made the play. How often does that happen?

by ol Pete on Apr 19, 2009 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't get the 24 LOB

both box scores say 13 LOB (still a ridiculous #). when I first read it here I was shocked. that’s almost 3 per inning. Am I missing something about the stat, or what you’re saying or did you just get misled by an error in an earlier box score.

today’s box

by lnewcomer on Apr 19, 2009 9:19 PM CDT reply actions

The Box reads

25 on that link.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Apr 19, 2009 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions

You're reading it wrong

That’s adding up all the baserunners that each batter left on base. Suppose Quintero reaches. Then the pitcher, Bourn, and Tejada all strike out. Each of those three batters left Quintero on base, so the sum of the LOB per batter is 3. But the team only left one on base.

You want to look for the Team LOB a bit lower.

by Xan on Apr 20, 2009 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions

thanks for the clarification

I can understand why he might read it like that now. and it makes for an interesting thought. which one should be the quoted #? I think it’s more accurate to say the Team LOB is 13, but to take your example, doesn’t merely saying 1 LOB understate the futility?

shows how a seemingly basic stat can be more complex than it looks.

by lnewcomer on Apr 20, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions

That's interesting

I had always considered that sum to be fairly useless, but I hadn’t thought much about it.

I recall an analysis done on this site last year, where it was basically concluded that teams that LOBs aren’t really bad, because teams that are scoring a lot leave a lot of runners on base. So you can’t say that a good team has fewer LOBs than a bad team.

But I wonder if the sum-total-LOB works differently. I bet for that number, a good team is lower than a bad team.

by Xan on Apr 21, 2009 1:43 AM CDT up reply actions

I think the analysis was done in 2007 by rastronomics...

my recollection is that he used the sum total number, but don’t hold me to it.

by clack on Apr 21, 2009 7:39 AM CDT up reply actions

Found it

This seems to be what we’re talking about:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2007/5/29/92511/5108

And it’s definitely team-LOB, looking at the formula he used (and credited you for!) to approximate it.

by Xan on Apr 21, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions

I had forgotten he had to use a proxy calculation for LOB...

My post (“don’t hold me to it”) was because I thought the sum total was the only data available. I think team LOB is the right one to use. And it isn’t easy to find across teams without going to boxscores, which led Rastro to the proxy calculation.

I still like my theory (which I posted as a comment there) that slugging percentage and isolated power has a lot to do with team LOB efficiency. HRs clear the bases and other extra base hits are less likely to leave extra base runners in a RBI situation.

by clack on Apr 21, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Okay

so I’m watching the rebroadcast of the game (so the FSN station in New Orleans thinks Alabama college softball is a bigger draw than Astros games in the afternoon, but not at night…. okay….).

The primary criticism I had read of Paulino had always been that he was throwing so hard that his pitches just didn’t have any movement on them. That didn’t seem to be the problem today, since all of his pitches had pretty good movement on them. Impressive.

Still, he had some command issues. Hopefully that’s just nerves and inexperience.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 20, 2009 1:06 AM CDT reply actions

Same old story

We send in a reliever who walks the first man. And when we get in deeper trouble, our best guy sits in the dugout waiting to come out in the ninth and ‘finish’.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Apr 20, 2009 9:01 AM CDT reply actions

sadly

there are only maybe three managers in the major leagues who might bring in Valverde in that situation: Bob Geren, Joe Maddon, and maybe Terry Francona (saw him do it in the playoffs; less sure he’d do it in the reg. season).

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 20, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions

well, do you really want to bring Valverde in anyway?

He blew the save in the first game, and he said his back was still hurting. I don’t know if his back was in good shape or not.,for last night’s game. I don’t think walking one batter in the 7th inning is necessarily grounds for bringing in your best reliever either. I might have considered changing relievers after Geary’s hit by pitch…but I probably would have brought in Sampson to try and get a DP, and it turns out he gave up a run in his inning later in the game too.

by clack on Apr 20, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions

I would also point out that Valverde seemed to have worse performances....

last year when he was brought in mid-inning, like with 1 or 2 outs in the 8th. I say that without checking the numbers, but that is my impression. Valverde’s control is iffy enough that I’m not sure he is the best guy to bring in cold for, say, a bases loaded situation.

by clack on Apr 20, 2009 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions

true

probably better to bring in Hawkins or Sampson. Still, we don’t know if they were even available.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 20, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions

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