When will the Astros front office learn? Sutton sent to the Reds
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 16, 2009 5:31 PM CDT
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PrintThe other night when I was sitting in the press box at Round Rock, the unofficial word was that Sutton was the PTBL in the Keppinger deal; just as it was leaked at the time of the trade. The discussion took place between beat writer who had heard the trade was conditional and that there was a a Player in Column A for the Reds if Keppinger was successful, and a player in Column B if Keppinger struggled out of the gate.
While Keppinger is solid addition to our team, I'm totally dismayed by what this trade represents. The Astros needed a boost at the platoon at 3B when Boone announced he would be undergoing open heart surgery, and with Chris Johnson's wacky platoon split, there wasn't a great match inside the system. There are two ways the front office could have played the situation: Admit that the level of production we were hoping for from the platoon in question wasn't that much and gone with either Blum or Johnson full time and see how it worked out, or look outside the system.
They opted for the latter, but in foolish way. By all accounts, there were to be a number of released players at the end of the season, and Keppinger was one such player. With a surplus of talent in the Reds infield, Keppinger wasn't someone likely to make the team. Even if he had stayed within the organization, should the Reds have made it official that Keppinger would not be a vital asset, I think that he could have been acquired for cash considerations or a lesser player than Drew Sutton.
Yes, Sutton doesn't have a long track record of success in the minor leagues, but he absolutely scorched the AFL last winter. Further, he represented freely available talent when Kaz Matsui inevitably would have gone down with an injury—something Kaz has already done. We're likely to keep Keppinger at 2B in the interim, but the reason he brought to the team was his ability to maximize a platoon split at 3B, not serve this function.
At the end of the day this probably won't be a move that Astros fans will look back on years from now and mutter obscenities at Ed Wade et al., but the thing that seems dangerous to me is that we're still trying to win at all costs—now. In less than two years, Kaz Matsui is off the books, and the question becomes who will we get to replace him? Keppinger could be an adequate full time player, but Sutton had the potential to be more than that, and cheaper. The answer, though, is likely a free agent of some sort. But that just perpetuates the cycle of bloated contracts, aged veterans in decline, and a derth of freely available talent in the minor system.
I'm all for trying to win as many games as possible, but at some point our front office is going to need to start planning for the post-Berkman, Oswalt, and Lee years. Getting those three off the books will free up a ton of money, but as we've learned over the last few years, you cannot buy a full team of talent. Especially for a team with so many holes.
This trade just feels hasty and sloppy.
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Hopefully this trade doesn't come back to bite the Astros.
I really like Sutton, and I was pulling for him to make the team, because I wanted to see a young Astros’ prospect make it. When I set that emotion aside, it probably is a fair trade. An older 25 year old prospect who has broken out offensively only recently for a proven 29 year old infielder, whom at this point can play more positions and play them with better defense. Objectively, that’s not an unfair trade at all. The sidebar, though, is the strategic consideration you brought up, could the Astros have gotten Keppinger anyway at a lower cost, if they waited? That’s a legitimate point. I suspect that Wade didn’t want to take a chance and gave in. I think the criticism about short term thinking is legitimate too.
I think that the Astros felt that Sutton can’t play any position but 2d base, and the position is blocked through next year. Sutton has a short window on becoming a starting 2d baseman…that’s why I wanted him to make the team this year. If he didn’t make the team next year, he would probably be consigned to the Quad-A category and have difficulty getting to the big leagues other than as a long shot. So we were probably destined to be frustrated by the Astros’ treatment of him, if he had stayed (kind of like Brooks Conrad).
What I'm afraid of,
and I think this echoes what DQ is saying, is that this reflects a larger organizational issue. The Astros have the worst system in baseball, and it seems to me that, as a general policy, they need to be protective of what little they have on the off chance that any of their prospects break out.
Still a Great Trade
For anyone complaining, just remember that there is not a single person outside of the Astros fan base that has ever thought Sutton is more than a bench player. Yes, he had a good year last year. 25 year olds tend to do that when they repeat AA. For anyone who thought Sutton was the Astros long term answer at 2nd, just remind yourself how you though about Ginter and Burke. Age and experience level is very important in evaluating a player. Sutton is not a blue chip player, he never was. We traded a guy who might be a decent utility player for a guy who is a decent utility player. Sure, we gained a few years, but I’ve never head a team bragging about having a solid core of young utility players.
by seanbergmanrules on Apr 16, 2009 6:13 PM CDT reply actions
I was pulling fo Sutton
to make the big club this spring…but I think you are dead on. They got a player who has already realized some potential for one who might have some potential. Granted Keppinger is a few years older than Sutton, but it’s a good trade in my opinion.
no way you can call it a great trade
first, Keppinger has had a good week and mostly against lefties. but it’s just a week. that’s even less than a year. if he was really that good, would the Reds have been ready to cut him?
and maybe Sutton just had a good year, and no one viewed him as a blue-chip prospect, but there seemed to be room for him to grow.
maybe it works out OK and Sutton flops and Keppinger turns out to be a solid utility guy. maybe, but not for sure. I know nothing in baseball is sure, but we keep making trades where we give away potential for mediocrity and we end up with years of just that.
well, I think Keppinger is good acquistion; I've said that from the beginning.
I think the Reds wanted to trade him because he had a bad spring and Dusty really liked a young infielder he wanted to keep on the roster. I wouldn’t take that as a sign that there is anything wrong with Keppinger. In fact, the way Keppinger has hit since the season started is very reassuring and dampens my disappointment about losing Sutton. Keppinger is hitting like he did for the Reds in 07 and the first part of 08, when he was on fire. Then he got injured and didn’t play well at the end of 08. Given Keppinger’s poor spring numbers for the Reds, the Reds may have wondered if the injury was still affecting him. However, we have more reassurance with his current performance that his hitting isn’t broken. And maybe that is why the Astros made the traded player contingent on how well Keppinger hits early in the season.
I think whether this is a good trade or not comes down to the Astros’ evaluation of Sutton. A lot of us would like to think that Sutton has a nice potential upside in the majors. I think the Astros came to a different conclusion. Maybe they’re right, maybe not. We’ll find out.
Just Like Zobrist Wasn't Anything But A Bench Player?
by Swing Mechanic on May 8, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
http://www.draysbay.com/2009/4/23/849233/cracking-the-zobrist-code-what-is
jaime cevallos
mkanx director of instruction
by Swing Mechanic on May 8, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
We might have been able to get a better deal had it not been so dead obvious that our back was against the wall at third base. The Reds had been dangling Keppinger for weeks, but there was no guarantee at all that he would have been given a release or put through waivers, or whatever that situation may be. And given that there were others out there looking to fill a similar hole in their rosters…
We were actually the team at a situational disadvantage.
the rumor was that other teams were interested in Keppinger.
The Red Sox were one such team. The Red Sox knew that they’re depth in the middle infield was weak and that they were relying on a rookie to come through (Lowrie, who since has gone down for injury). As it turns out the Red Sox could have used Keppinger. So, the Reds could have told the Astros that they had other offers for Keppinger.
For all of you who were already upset about the Sutton-Keppinger swap, I’m here to stoke the flames a little bit. From McTaggert’s liveblog of today’s game:
Brian McTaggart: Also, there was talk during game of Keppinger leaving for Smith. Keppinger also has a sore back.
CRAP
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 16, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
McTaggart also said that Valverde had a sore back, bringing the count up to 3 players (counting Matsui, too). From the sounds of it, it’s probably weather-related, and not too much to worry about.
I’ll be happy for them to get back to a long homestand in a warmer climate.
Maybe they need to replace the seats on their charter flights.
:p
by entropic soul on Apr 16, 2009 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Matsui has a masseuse who travels with him.
Maybe some sharing should go on…or maybe not, Matsui still has back problems.
Chicken fight gone wrong?
While teaming up Lee jumps on an unsuspecting Kaz, who crumbles to the floor screaming Japanese obscenities.
Kep and Valverde hurt their backs as they frantically try to prevent Kaz from suffocating under el Caballo.
Berkman shakes his head and tells Oswalt it’s going to be a very long season.
Far fetched? Yeah, but what else do they have to do in Pittsburgh on a mid-series off day?
by dallastros_fan on Apr 17, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
this kind of takes the fun out of the win today
i’ll get over it, and there’s always they slim chance that ed wade knows what he’s doing and sutton’s last year was just a flash in the pan, but it just feels like another slap in the face.
You Have
Got to be kidding me. I can’t say anything more than that. Stunned. I was expecting someone other than our #3 prospect for Keppinger.
I don't know that he really our No. 3 prospect...
I think angraphs says that. Most lists have him 6 to 8. I forgotten where farmstroh’s put him. Sutton is not a blue chip prospect, like someone said above. He wouldn’t be nearly that high on most any other teams’ prospect list. That is part of the reason I was pulling for him so much. It’s a great story when a guy can succeed and advance more than a lot of the highly lauded prospects. I always liked the description of him as a baseball rat.
This is a pretty worrying indicator
of the delusion that the front office has going, perhaps pushed being into by Drayton. I thought last offseason was bad, with a Lidge trade I didn’t particularly like, an Anderson trade I wasn’t too sure of and the trade for Tejada that was turrible, just turrible.
Obviously, they still think they can win a championship with a team that has glaring holes, yet aren’t willing to spend to make things improve. Instead, they attempt to replace these guys with low-cost, bargain-bin makeshifts which either come at smallish contracts or for minor leaguers who supposedly won’t make an impact. Not offering arbitration to Wolf or Loretta and not giving Ty Wigginton a contract were mind-boggling decisions especially when they went out and replaced them with Russ Ortiz and Bloone’s Farm. You don’t build a championship team by buying mediocrity. It usually comes from building a core off a farm system, and even dealing away Drew Sutton, who might not have been an everyday ML player is still the wrong train of thought.
The way things are going, this team is going to head down a long slope and at the bottom, they still won’t have the farm system.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
Hey man, I feel you on some of that, but I can’t knock them too hard for what happened this offseason with Wolf, Loretta, and Wigginton.
I believe the front office when they say that the dollars and cents just weren’t there, and that made it necessary to get cheaper but not-as-solid players. I believe them because I am living the same thing. Do you think I wanted to eat these Hill Country Fare 2-Wister cookies? No. I wanted Oreos. These off-brands don’t even come close. But I’m on a budget.
And while we could have offered arbitration to those guys, had any one of them accepted, we would have been stuck with a much larger bill than we could handle. Just like if I went to the grocery store and wrote a check for everything, I’d be overdrawing my account. But if I did it anyway because I expect a paycheck to get direct deposited tomorrow, it’s totally possible for me to end up screwed if my check didn’t go through in time.
Baseball fans lose all sorts of perspective when talking about salaries that run into the millions of dollars. But money’s money and a budget’s a budget and it works the same when we’re talking about baseball player salaries. $100 million should be more than enough to run a good baseball team, but the guys running it in the past made some bad decisions. And now we gotta take our lumps. In the meantime, I’m just going to be thankful that Wade hasn’t signed anyone to a 6-year, $100 million, no-trade clause contract.
The big question was
whether Wolf or Loretta would accept. I don’t think they would’ve, considering there was a starter spot out there for Loretta, it seemed, and Wolf could’ve capitalized on a great stretch run. They ended up both with the Dodgers, so we only lost one compensation pick out of it. Still, the team needs all the higher picks it can get.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
Not to mention...
Wade also blew the Valverde trade. We gave up Chad Qualls, earned $800K for Valverde who earns $8 million. For 10% of the cost, Qualls outperformed Valverde by a significant margin—2.70 to 3.67 FIP. He also produced 2 value wins to Valverde’s 0.8 (according to Fangrapsh).
Can anyone even name a deal that Ed Wade won, even a bit.
by natrix964909 on Apr 16, 2009 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Wolf for a marginal bullpen talent?
Hawkins for a marginal second base talent?
by Only_A_Lad on Apr 16, 2009 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Why cant Kep start??
Everyone is talking about him being a good utility man but he has the hitting skills to be starter in the majors…His first chance to start in the majors was last year and he batted over .300 in his at bats…He was traded because 1) the Reds have Brandon Philips at second and 2) Alex Gonzalez is a very good defensive SS where as Keppinger is sold at SS,3B and 2nd hes not great at any of them…plus the reds have a surplus of talented hitters and have a pretty good farm system…Their are teams out there who dont have 2nd baseman that hit as well as Keppinger or are as solid as KazMat (when hes healthy)…plus the guy is 28 and turning 29 on April 21st, so he isnt as old as people think…he has plenty of sold hitting years in front of him…if hes kept longterm this will end up being a vry good trade for the Astros because they got a professional hitter who will strike out less than 40 times given 500 at bats which is very good…
by The Bourn Believer on Apr 16, 2009 10:32 PM CDT reply actions
not a bad deal
Keppinger has been impressive so far, and has had success with the Reds in the past. He’s still relatively young and under team control for a few more years. Keppinger might even be the Astros ss next year when Tejada leaves. It’s doubtful that the Reds would have just cut him, when other teams like Red Sox, Yankees, etc. needed infield help.
Sutton’s ranking in the Astros’ prospect hierarchy only shows the dearth of talent the team has in the system. Sure he might turn out to be a useful major leaguer, but it will be more on par with the likes of Geoff Blum, not Chase Utley. 25 year olds who repeat AA aren’t going to many All Star games.
Based on what Reds' fans say....
(as well as his defensive range stats), you don’t want to see Keppnger as a starter at shortstop in the future. His defense plays better at 3d and 2d base. It is plausible that Keppinger could start at second base for a couple of years after Matsui is gone.
A scout at RR said that Sutton doesn't have fast enough reflexes for 3B
For what that’s worth.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 17, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
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