Rick Ankiel and Brian Bogusevic: Fair Comparison?

by Evan Hochschild on Apr 11, 2009 3:00 AM CDT

I was perusing this article from Baseball America, which details NL Central teams' minor league affiliates. Their player to watch for the Round Rock Express this season is Brian Bogusevic. The pitcher turned outfielder has a good chance to get a call up to the majors at some point this season, especially if Michael Bourn struggles at the plate.

An easy to make comparison is to look at St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel as an example of what Bogusevic could become. Ankiel was once a pitcher with a great deal of promise whose career took a turn an unexpected turn when he no longer was succeeding on the mound. Is this a fair comparison to make though?

For starters, Ankiel became a full time outfielder at age 25, while Bogusevic made the switch at age 25. That is where the similarities really stop for these two. Their minor league numbers do not make for a simple comparison:

	Starts	IP	ERA	K/9	WHIP
Brian Bogusevic	64	329.2	5.05	6.1	1.50
Rick Ankiel	85	469	2.80	12.8	1.07

Immediately, one can tell that Ankiel had major league type stuff while he was coming up in the minor leagues. Assumedly had Ankiel's control issues not arisen, he would still be a pitcher. Bogusevic on the other hand, was forced to turn to the outfield full time.

Offensively, we do not have that much data to compare since Bogusevic first started hitting full time in the middle of last season. In 2005, Ankiel played on the A and AA levels (like Bogusevic), his first season as a non pitcher:

	Season	AB	BA	OPS	HR	BB/K
Brian Bogusevic	2008	147	.347	.969	4	20/25
Rick Ankiel	2005	321	.259	.853	21	37/66

The big difference offensively is that Ankiel is much more of a power threat, and will swing and miss much more than Bogusevic as a result. To justify being a major league outfielder, however, power is almost a requirement unless you're able to get on base, steal bases or play unbelieveable defense to compensate. I'm not sure that Bogusevic can do any of those things, which is why this season in Round Rock is extremely important to his development. If he can develop into more of a doubles hitter, his chances of being a viable major leaguer will increase dramatically. As it stands, Brian may already be a better hitter than Michael Bourn, but until he can show the ability to hit for a higher slugging percentage, his value will be muted. His defense is improving in centerfield, as was noted by Baseball Prospectus.

I'm encouraged by what his PECOTA projections have in store for him this season. His 75th percentile projection has this line for him in 2009:

	AB	BA	OBP	SLG%	HR	WARP
Brian Bogusevic	480	.293	.364	.490	15	3.5

Playing above his projected line by 25% would render those statistics this season, so says PECOTA. Of course, it's unlikely that he will get that many at bats on this level, but I'm optimistic that even in our wildest dreams he could conceivably produce that kind of season.

Entering into his age 25 season, it's getting to be make or break time for Bogusevic. While he probably will not become a hitter in the mold of Ankiel, Brian Bogusevic does have the ability to hit for a decent average, run the bases well and play nice defense for the Astros. Developing upon that potential, and getting a chance to show what he can do is all that stands in Bogusevic's way at this point.

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This has been linked to a few times

but here‘s a pretty good scouting report on Bogusevic. He’s listed as the #2 prospect in the Astros’ system:

It’s a small sample size, but I’m extremely impressed by the seamless transition made by Bogusevic ever since turning his sights on becoming a hitter. Even more impressive, Bogusevic has the looks of a polished veteran with a complete understanding of the strike zone and how to use the entire field.

Bogusevic walked in 11.6% of his plate appearances and sprinkled line drives and ground balls all over the field. In fact, he went the other way more often than when he pulled the ball and will need to do a better job of turning on the ball.

With Corpus Christi, Bogusevic posted an unsustainable .443 BABIP and he did the same in the AFL with a .413 BABIP, so he has the ability to make hard contact. The problem for Bogusevic is an extremely high GB% (65), which means he’ll be hitting mostly singles instead of getting hits of the extra base variety. He’s too often hitting the top half of the ball.

…

Bogusevic has the added value of being able to play a premium defensive position in center fielder. His range is solid and his arm is of course, very strong.

Best Case Outcome – Average everyday center fielder…probably doesn’t have the power to be much more than that

More Likely Outcome – Solid 4th outfielder

It’s entirely possible, I suppose, that he can make adjustments to his swing this year and hit more fly balls. Bill James has an interesting essay in his ‘09 Goldmine about “flyball” vs “groundball” hitters (James claims that virtually all hitters hit essentially the same proportion of GB/FB/LD) that the few true groundball hitters tend to have a pretty hard time of things. His main example is Juan Pierre, who we all know sucks. So, while it’s possible that Bogusevic could do well in the majors hitting the ball mostly on the ground (particularly since he hits the ball so hard) it would be a lot easier for him if he could elevate the ball a bit.

It’s good that BPro thinks he can hit for more power, too:

The Good: Bogusevic has a body type and tools that project well, and he needed little time to adjust upon his return to hitting. He has a quick, quiet swing, with gap power that many believe will increase based on what they saw from his Tulane days.

At the end of the day, we’ve only seen a small sample size: a half season of A/AA and his time in the AFL. He’s displayed the kind of power the Astros would need from him before, and there’s good reason to believe that he can regain that. I suppose we’ll see as the season goes on.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 11, 2009 3:57 AM CDT reply actions

So far, so good in AAA....

he did hit a HR on opening day, and he is hitting something like .450 after 2 games.

by clack on Apr 11, 2009 8:43 AM CDT reply actions

The three things that worry me

1. The unsustainable BABIP that the above-linked article mentioned
2. When he made the jump from A+ to AA, his strikeout rate jumped to nearly 20%.
3. I’m worried his performance will start to suffer toward the end of the season…he really hasn’t played a full season as a position player in a long time, and I’m wondering if he’ll need time to get “stretched out” to play a full 162 games.

by AstroAndy on Apr 11, 2009 9:00 AM CDT reply actions

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