NL Central Positional Throwdown: Relief Pitching Edition
by Evan Hochschild on Mar 5, 2009 3:00 AM CST
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PrintIn our last installment, we saw that the Cubs starting pitching was tops again in the NL Central. Now our journey through the division takes us to relievers. Relief pitchers are like punters in football- you only hear about them if they play poorly. Instead of including every single AAA pitcher who could potentially get called up and contribute, I'll be looking at each team's closer, set-up man/men, and another important arm.
Chicago Cubs Key Bullpen Members: Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija
Kerry Wood was given his walking papers this offseason, and his loss was Carlos Marmol's gain. Marmol was stellar in 2008, though perhaps overused. Regardless, he has electric stuff and already has closer experience, converting 7/9 save opportunities last season.
On the other end of the spectrum is Kevin Gregg, the presumptive set up man. He lacks the quality pitches that Marmol has at his disposal, getting by last year in part because of an extremely low BABIP. Marmol's BABIP was even lower, but his strikeout numbers are far more impressive. Gregg has a lower K rate and a higher walk rate. If that BABIP would adjust even slightly, the next guy in line could some time as set-up man.
The next guy in line is Jeff Samardzija, another hard thrower the Cubs have in their arsenal. The projections are not as optimistic as Cubs fans would like though. Still, he is a talent who may end up in the rotation before his career is through if he can develop his off speed pitches. Points Awarded: 6
If the city of Chicago wasn't full of enough Golden Domers already, this guy will do his best to increase that number..
Houston Astros Key Bullpen Members: Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, Chris Sampson
Valverde again led the NL in saves in 2008. An underrated closer who mixes a hard fastball with a split finger fastball he throws fairly regularly. He strikes out a high number while maintaining a strong BB rate as well. His contract runs out at the end of this season, and I wouldn't expect him to be back. Regardless, his successful recent past should continue on into the 2009 season.
Doug Brocail is an old man. An old man who had one of his best seasons last year, despite breaking down a little bit towards the end of the season. Two things should help ease his burdens: 1) LaTroy Hawkins being here for a full season 2) an improved rotation. Well, at least LaTroy will be here...If the second thing doesn't happen, at least we have...
Chris Sampson to take the ball in long relief situations. After off season surgery, Chris is easing into his spring routine. He is a pitch to contact guy with a remarkably high GB%. He doesn't strike a lot of guys out, but he doesn't walk many batters either. Just what the doctor ordered. Points Awarded: 5
Milwaukee Brewers Key Bullpen Members: Trevor Hoffman, Carlos Villanueva, David Riske
Last season Milwaukee went out and spent 10 million dollars on Eric Gagne, thinking he'd be able to solidify the closing situation. Wrong. He's back though, on much cheaper terms this time. Closing this season is Trevor Hoffman, the long time Padre. The Brew Crew is in luck this time, as Hoffman should be outstanding once again in his 16th big league season. He may not strike as many guys out as he used to, but that changeup is still awesome and he doesn't walk a lot of guys either.
Carlos Villanueva is just a good relief pitcher. He throws four pitches, and keeps the ball on the ground. A nice K-rate and a superb K/BB ratio makes him an ideal member of a good bullpen. He can make spot starts if necessary as well.
On the other hand, you have David Riske. Not that he's a bad pitcher. Based on his numbers, he seems like a decent enough bullpen arm. What struck me was his incredibly high LD% (29%), and his near 1 K/BB ratio from last year. I guess there are worse pitchers in baseball. It was a close battle for third between StL and Brew City- I'll give Milwaukee the edge, ever soooo slightly.
Points Awarded: 4
St. Louis Cardinals Key Bullpen Members: Chris Perez, Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte
Gone for good is former closer Jason Isringhausen, and in his place steps Chris Perez, a youngster who is a traditional fastball/slider guy. He came in and pitched pretty well to close out 2008, though he struggled with walks and blown saves (4 in 11 opportunities). If he wants to secure his role as the Red-Bird's closer, it'd be in his best interest to figure these issues out.
Ryan Franklin is a cagey veteran. I don't really know what cagey means, but I heard Jon Miller say it once. Franklin did save 17 games for the Cardinals last season but he also walks a ton of guys, gives up too many hits and can't compensate for those short comings with the ability to strike a guy out when he needs to. A former starting pitcher with Seattle, perhaps he would be better suited to be a long relief guy, as he can throw six pitches with some effectiveness.
Jason Motte is probably the best pitcher out of the three mentioned in this article. An older rookie at 26 last season, Motte pitched only 12 innings in the bigs. He projects well and has "closer stuff", a phrase that I hear commentators use with regularity. Perhaps what I'm most excited about is the potential for his own fan club at new Busch stadium utilizing the Mott's applesauce. Hopefully a creative individual can photcopy a bunch of applesauce labels and crudely/cutely slap an "e" between the last "t" and the "'s"...Points Awarded: 3
You totally thought I was gonna be the one to make the first Motte's Fan Club signs involving applesauce...nope, just a picture of the man himself
Cincinatti Reds Key Bullpen Members: Francisco Cordero, David Weathers, Bill Bray
Limiting the home run is important for any relief pitcher, especially one in the Queen City. Francisco Cordero does that very well, and if he did nothing else of any distinction he'd still be a good fit for this club. A fine closer all in all. Maybe he is worth the $8.6 million he was paid in 2008! (He is not.)
I've looked through hundreds of player projections on Fan Graphs, and I've never seen the three player forecaster systems be this much in agreement on any one player. Looks like your classic veteran-who-doesn't-have-great-stuff-but-doesn't-walk-an-inordinate-amount-of-hitters-either type guy. Whew.
I'm a little stupefied right now. I wanted to lay into a member of the Reds bullpen, and I though Bill Bray would be one such candidate. Wrong. Young pitcher with pretty good peripheral stats. What's more, he has an even better potential fan club than does Jason Motte. Cincy-fan, you're on notice. And when novelty Mr. Bill Bray claymation t-shirts are on sale, I want my just compensation!! Points Awarded: 2.
If I don't get royalties/credit for my Mr. Bill fan club idea, I' ll be as upset as this guy..
Pittsburgh Pirates Key Bullpen Members: Matt Capps, John Grabow, Tyler Yates
If you've been paying attention, you've noticed that I think relievers who have low BB rates are nice people to build a bullpen with. Matt Capps in one such pitcher Please, look at what I'm talking about. It's sorta sad though, in a way. Capps closing for the Pirates must feel the same way as Pauly Shore's awards-acceptance speech- it just doesn't get utilized all that often.
John Grabow and Tyler Yates are both average relief pitchers. Don't believe me? Here, and here. Nothing to write home about, and to be honest, nothing I wanted to write about. Instead, I'll conclude with this:
Sid Bream looked like he was running with a piano on his back from the moment he left second base. Still managed to score the winning run of the NLCS. Such is Pittsburgh Pirates baseball. Long live, Mazeroski!
Points Awarded: 1
Total Pitching Staff Points:
Chicago-12
Houston-7
Cincinnati-7
Milwaukee-7
St. Louis-6
Pittsburgh-2
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Hmm
if the Astros are really tied second after the pitching, they look in good stead for the remainder of the throwdown. Yee-haw!
JEFF TEAGUE TIME.
I disagree...
Hoffman should have retired two years ago after passing Lee Smith. He has been whining in the paper about the Padres “letting him go.” My evidence? Petco Park is the most pitcher friendly park in baseball in my opinion, now he is going to a band box ballpark, he is going to get lit up.
A Walk Is As Good As A Hit.
Also...
Sampson isn’t really a strength, he couldn’t make it as a 5th starter so he got moved to the bullpen. Key Bullpen contributors would be; Valverde, Brocail, Byrdak/Hawkins.
A Walk Is As Good As A Hit.
I disagree, probably whole-heartedly
1) The fact that Hoffman "whined’ in the papers is no concern of mine, really. The city of San Diego seems to like him just as much as ever. Head on over to their blog on SBN, and ask their opinion of Hoffman.
2) http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1035&position=P
His HR rate did jump dramatically, despite his overall fly ball percentage dropping..that tells me a lot of bad luck occurred. Bill James, Marcel, and CHONE all seem to agree with me
3) Sampson is definitely a strength. With our starting pitching as weak as it is, a guy who can go out there and clean up messes, and keep games close is an invaluable asset. What’s more, Sampson could actually improve this season as compared to last season. Brocail, Hawkins and Byrdak should all regress this year.
http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=HOU&year=2008&leag=N_L
That’s a link to show just how valuable Sampson is to our team. This excerpt from a prior article I wrote about Sampson explains the pertinent stat in that link:
While there are bigger names in our bullpen, Sampson was our best arm in terms of Pitching Runs Above Average (pRAA). A lot of the time, its difficult to ascertain who is pitching well in relief, and who is taking advantage of lucky situations and park effects. The middle innings reliever often gets the short of end of the stick in terms of luck, and pRAA neutralizes situational pitching, park effects, and expected outs. Doing so allows us to get a more objective view of a particular pitcher, regardless of their role on the pitching staff. What we can see is that Sampson has flown under the radar. He pitches in some of the most difficult situations conceivable, and does the kind of work that allowed this team to succeed despite their run scored/runs allowed differential.
True, he may not be good enough to be a starter. Then again, is Brandon Backe, or Mike Hampton, or Brian Moehler? There aren’t that many legitimate starting pitchers in the big leagues, as it is. A lot of teams, like the Astros, really have to stretch to find five-eight pitchers who can be considered guys who can start games for them. Sampson would probably be a better starter than either of those three I mentioned, it’s just that he’s a ton more valuable to this team as a member of the bullpen.
Thanks for the strong opinions though. I like a little back and forth!
by Evan Hochschild on Mar 5, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions
I would have never guessed you had that in you.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 5, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
Moehler ...
Is going to have a sub 4.50 ERA and a winning record with at least 12 wins.
by entropic soul on Mar 5, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Oh come on!
20 wins, maybe.. but 21 is just unrealistic!
by entropic soul on Mar 5, 2009 7:04 PM CST up reply actions
I second that.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 6, 2009 2:56 AM CST up reply actions
miscellaneous
Cubs: Just a guess, but they might keep Somejars in AAA starting. Marmol as a closer means that he doesn’t fill the role he did last year, coming in whenever things were unraveling, in which he excelled.
Brewers: Gagne has one of those contracts where he can walk away if he isn’t on the ML roster by a date that is soon. He has had a sore shoulder. I don’t know a whole lot about Riske as he came over from the AL which i am less familiar with. His ERA+ has been good in his career outside last year when he had some arm problems.
Reds: Weathers always looks explosive to me but manages to do a decent job.
Cards: I don’t know much about their young guys, but after Izzy last year, I’m sure they’ll be better.
I don't think the Hoffman signing was bad....
given the Brewers’ situation, they had to do that, and the price wasn’t terribly unreasonable. Hoffman may well be good again. However, with any relief pitcher at his age, you have to be concerned that his performance could fall off the table at any time. It’s really the same kind of situation with the Astros’ Brocail. Brocail pitched well last year, but the odds of a collapse increase with age…as an Astros’ fan you just hope it doesn’t happen this year. And I think the same thing applies to Hoffman and the Brewers.
One thing that is fascinating about Hoffman is that he is the only current closer I can think of who relies on a soft little change up to get his outs. He is almost like a Doug Jones….another closer who pitched for both the Astros and Brewers at one time, and threw 60 mph stuff at hitters. You have to admire closers who work in that slow range.
Card fan here
Excellent write up. I’m going to go back and check your rotation summary as well.
I pretty much agree with your assessment with the Cards’ pen. Josh Kinny is another guy that could be key though. If he’s healthy he’s an asset that could still be considered for closer. He throws two fastballs but his slider is his bread butter. Lots of movement. He was key in the Cards’ 06 WS run before blowing out his elbow in 07 and missing most of two years with TJ surgery. Perez has the best stuff of the three you mention but is still struggling for consistency. Motte will be entertaining just because it’s fun to watch a po’d guy throw 98-99. His secondary pitch (slider) needs lots of work though. As for Franklin, StL just needs him to be consistent. Maybe fill the Russ Springer role as a 6-7 inning shutdown man.
Anyway, keep up the good work. Should be some good battles in the central as everyone scrambles to catch the Cubs.
NL Central Dogfight
I’m repeating myself from another post, but if the Cubs falter (and they are the Cubs), the NL Central could be a real dogfight this year.
Astros must jump out early and hold on, having a relatively weak schedule the first half of the season, and a nasty schedule the final two or three months.
It’s important for a team to have a strong closer and set up men. That ought to be the Astros strong suit this year. This thread renews my fainting hopes.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 5, 2009 3:29 PM CST reply actions
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Current Series
3 game series vs Rockies @ Minute Maid Park
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Friday, Apr 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT |
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| Sat 04/07 | 6:05 PM CDT | |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 6:03 AM CST)
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