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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Astros' 25 Man Roster: Who's going up, who's sliding down

Going into the spring, we knew that a majority of this team was set in stone:

  • the bullpen
  • the front four starters in the rotation
  • the five outfielders
  • starting infield

In the past few weeks some things have changed that have caused the Astros to re-evaluate their roster heading into their April 6th opening day game against Chicago. Pudge Rodriguez was signed to a one year contract, most likely sliding JR Towles down to AAA. Luckily, Lou Palmisano was not taken back by Milwaukee, which allowed the Astros to keep keep him as a minor leaguer. Catcher depth is never a bad thing.

Aaron Boone had to have heart surgery, opening up a roster spot for a platoon partner with Geoff Blum. Chris Johnson is an option, but he would not be an ideal platoonmate with Blum, since both hit best against right handed pitchers. Jeff Baker, Juan Uribe and Jeff Keppinger are but a few names that have been tossed around as potential options at the hot corner. Internally, Chris Johnson seems to be our best, and only real option. Again, although he may be on the opening day roster, it doesn't mean that he will be successful immediately.

The fifth starter's slot was Brandon Backe's to lose, and as a result of injury and poor performance, Backe slides out. Going up is most likely Russ Ortiz. A non roster invitee, Ortiz has been impressive, no more so than in his last start against the Reds, a six inning, one hit, no run performance. Jose Capellan is another NRI, but after a shaky start against the Blue Jays, I'd expect him to be on the Express roster when Spring Training breaks.

As for our back up middle infielder, the Astros brought in a plethora of guys with plenty of warts. Whether it be age (David Newhan, Matt Kata, Jason Smith) or lack of a solid bat (Tommy Manzella and Edwin Maysonet), or lack of defensive skills (Drew Sutton).

It all depends on what Cecil Cooper is looking for. If he wants someone who can come in and hit well, I'd argue that Sutton is his best bet.  Jason Smith has hit well in the spring, but he is a journey man and has never shown the ability to perform on this level. Sutton's pedigree is above average, and if given the opportunity to get ABs on a consistent basis, he could become a very serviceable major league hitter. This won't happen right off the bat, as he has been sent back to AAA. Smith's defense is suspect, and Kata, Newhan and Manzella have not performed well enough to earn a spot on the ML roster.

That leaves Edwin Maysonet, who has played well defensively and recently contributed to the offensive cause by knocking two home runs off of Toronto ace Roy Halladay.

 

Chutesss_medium

Ortiz looks like a winner, Towles goes back down...for now

 

So where does that leave us? Here's what I think our 25 man roster will be heading into the regular season:

Catchers (2): Ivan Rodriguez, Humberto Quintero

Infielders (6): Lance Berkman, Kazuo Matsui, Miguel Tejada, Geoff Blum, Edwin Maysonet, Third Baseman- my vote goes to Jeff Baker if Colorado releases him

Outfielders (5): Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Jason Michaels, Darin Erstad

Starting Pitching Rotation (5): Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz

Relief Pitchers (7): Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, Doug Brocail, Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins, Wesley Wright, Geoff Geary

This leaves us with nice depth in AAA. Players such as Alberto Arias, Jose Capellan, Bud Norris, Drew Sutton, Brian Bogusevic and Chris Johnson will gain valuable experience while giving the Astros options should injuries/poor performance occur.

Maysonet_medium

Edwin Maysonet

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Because we won't need 5th starter before 4/19..

Cooper said he might schedule Ortiz to start at Round Rock, before we need him.

It make Arias or Fulchino some chance staying in 25-roster on opening day, but they will be optioned down on 4/18.

by HubertL on Mar 25, 2009 4:31 AM CDT reply actions  

Hmm

I wouldn’t mind Jeff Keppinger too much at that 3B platoon, even though he has no power and doesn’t take too many walks. But it seems like he can hit for average and he was hitting about .300 until he broke his wrist last year and wasn’t the same after that. BUt can he play third?

Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

by jonthefon on Mar 25, 2009 6:25 AM CDT reply actions  

yes.

He has played a few games at 3d for the Reds. Generally most shortstop are able to play 3d base.

by clack on Mar 25, 2009 7:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

Keppinger v. Baker

Their splits against lefties are both very similar—OPS 900+, 350-370 of which is OBP, which would be rather uncharacteristic for an Astro. Neither is really a stolen base threat.

Nevertheless, I think I’d prefer Keppinger to Baker in a platoon because of their career strikeout rates against lefties:
Baker—46 strikeouts in 221 plate attempts for a K% of 20.8%
Keppinger—8 strikeouts in 300 plate attempts for a K% of 2.7%

Also, I still have a (perhaps irrational) fear that the batting numbers of any Rockies player might not translate well to MMP, despite the fact that Kazuo actually managed to play better here.

by AstroAndy on Mar 25, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

on the other hand

Baker has fared a bit better against righties than Keppinger. In fact, careerwise, against righties, Baker has not been too significantly different than Blum, and Blum specializes in righties.

And if you look at Blum’s production last year, either Keppinger or Baker could be a better full-time player than in a platoon with Blum.

by AstroAndy on Mar 25, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Coors Field factor was in the back of my mind.

(it always is when you think about Rockies’ batters.) Baker has almost a .900 OPS at home and an OPS below .700 on the road. May or may not mean much.

by clack on Mar 25, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

is the thinking that

one of Baker, Uribe or Keppinger will be cut loose by their teams?

by ol Pete on Mar 25, 2009 8:11 AM CDT reply actions  

it is, as far as i know

they’re all on the fringe as far as making their respective clubs

by Evan Hochschild on Mar 25, 2009 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

have been a bit out of touch this spring

but i think your assessment is very sound, especially with Ortiz and Maysonet contributing solidly this afternoon (which since I was drving back from Galveston, I actually got to listen to a game for the first time in a while). the biggest question mark at this point seems to be the third base platoon. i don’t know anything about this Baker guy from Colorado, but I’d think they’d shy away from CJ unless they planned on giving him more than a righty platoon’s worth of starts. has his ST warrented that sort of reward? i haven’t paid enough attention to know.

by littlevisigoth on Mar 25, 2009 3:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Not to this point.

Chris Johnson is hitting about .240. He has had hit moments of clutch hitting. But his at bats are small enough that a 3 for 3 day or a 0 for 3 day can make a substantial difference in his batting average.

by clack on Mar 25, 2009 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

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