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Around SBN: The Slow Decline of Duke

NL Central Positional Throwdown: Rightfield Edition

Wow. This was probably the toughest group to give an order to. A lot of quality players playing right field made it a fun contest to break down.

Star-divide

Chicago Cubs Right Fielder: Milton Bradley

I'll say this first- I could have gone with Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick or Corey Hart here, and had good arguments for each. I decided to go with Bradley based on his potential to flourish playing for the Cubs. After signing Kosuke Fukudome to a free agent contract before the 2008, Chicago hopes that Bradley will become the offensive threat that Fukudome never really became. After a video game type season last year with Texas, Bradley signed the aforementioned deal with the Cubs. A good athlete, Bradley should be able to play a good right field as well. He is an injury concern, however, but if healthy he has the potential to be a moster. Points Awarded: 6


Bradley_medium

Milton Bradley [pictured on the right] is all smiles in Chicago

Houston Astros Right Fielder: Hunter Pence

After coming in like a lion in 2007, Pence was much more lamb-like in 2008. He struggled to adjust to an increased percentage of breaking balls. His BABIP dropped precipitously, and as a result, his batting average tanked. On the plus side, while his strikeout percentage stayed the same, his walk rate rose in 2008. That should help the ol' OBP rise, which makes him even more vulable. The next three guys on this list, Jay Bruce, Corey Hart, and Ryan Ludwick are all projected to have lower OBPs than Pence. Another reason to be high on Pence: an extremely low LD% in 2008 should increase this season, while his uptick in FB% should continue as well, probably meaning more HRs this season. Points Awarded: 5

Cincinnati Reds Right Fielder: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce's 2008 rookie campaign was a sandwich. The pieces of bread were tasty- Bruce was hot coming in, and finished strong as well.  They were two slices of jalapeno cheese bread. What went in between the bread wasn't so tasty-his OPSs in June, July and August never rose above .730. These middle three months were like three sardines in the sandwich. Basically, I had to ask myself: do the ends make up for unpleasant middle? To an extent, yes, but not enough to place him above Pence or Bradley. He struck out a lot in those months, a trend that should continue into this season. Be that as it may, Bruce has a strong history mashing in the minor leagues, so a rebound year should occur. The difference between Pence and Bruce truly was negligible. In terms of WARP Bruce actually wins, 3.7 to 3.5, and  in VORP Bruce squeaks by with a 29.4 to 29.3 win. Still, I like Pence based on his ability to steal a few more bags and his stronger arm in right. Points Awarded: 4


Breaddsc_7309_medium

Jay Bruce hopes to have more jalapeno cheese bread type months

Milwaukee Brewers Rightfielder: Corey Hart

Corey Hart is the lone 20/20 guy on this list. There is a great deal of value in that, obviously. Where Hart hurts himself and his team is his total inability to take a walk. Not that anyone on this list outside of Milton Bradley is an extremely patient hitter, but Hart swings, and swings, and swings. Through the month of May, Hart had an extremely respectable OBP. After June, his numbers in that category were Bourn-like. His decline culminated in a ridiculously poor September, toting a line of .173/.192/.437 into the finish line. This season Hart looks to rebound, but unless he changes his approach, I don't really see him coming around. His defense and baserunning are above average, and he is a base stealing threat. Hart is valuable, no doubt, but his free swinging ways hamper him a great deal. Points Awarded: 3

St. Louis Cardinals Rightfielder: Ryan Ludwick

Wait a second! How is an All Star this low??? Ryan Ludwick had an OPS+ of 150 last season! He was equally good against both left handed and right handed pitching last season, to boot. What gives? What gives is that Ludwick  made this leap when he was 29 going on 30 years old. That means his peak seasons are gone. He's a bit like an Astro minor leaguer- old. He stuck around in the minors until he was 28. Not to take anything away from Ludwick. His power numbers should stick around for a few more seaons, though that .299 BA in 2008 was a little BABIP induced. A nice story, nonethless, and a solid player. Points Awarded: 2

Pittsburgh Pirates Rightfielder: Brandon Moss

A former prospect in the Red Sox system, Moss came over in the Jason Bay trade. He hasn't had a full season under his belt so far in his major league career, but he has put up respectable minor league numbers. Everything about Moss tells me that he is going to be an ok right fielder- his contact rate, his walk rate, defense, and base running. He lacks a great power bat, but again he's more than ok. His competition looks to be the likes of Craig Monroe and Eric Hinske. Points Awarded: 1

Total Points through 9 Comparisons:

Chicago Cubs-43

Milwaukee Brewers-40

Houston Astros-32

St. Louis Cardinals-30

Cincinnati Reds-27

Pittsburgh Pirates-19

 

 

 

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No way Bradley deserves the #1 spot

he’s a walking injury risk and although he is a terrific hitter (those OPS+ numbers are ridiculous), I don’t think he’s produced the overall consistent final numbers to warrant selection there.

But overall that’s a really difficult list to pick from. It could go any way. I’d probably take Ludwick at top right now simply because he’s hitting in front of Pujols, which is the best spot to hit in all of baseball. I can’t separate Pence and Bruce, and Hart is probably just behind them.

Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

by jonthefon on Mar 21, 2009 5:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

to each their own, i guess

i thought: “in a late game situation, when i need someone to do something positive at the plate, who would i want up there?”

i chose bradley. his defense will be fine, so it’s not like that takes away from anything.

true, he is an injury risk, but it’s not like he’s an old man.

and yea- pence and bruce were waaaayyy too close. i could have flip flopped them.

by HighLeveragePerformer on Mar 21, 2009 6:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bradley...

I think he is a fine player. But I am not certain if he can stay healthy playing an everyday RF…or perhaps his defense will suffer. After his knee surgery, Bradley was never consistently used in the outfield in Texas; he was a DH much of the time. I also think Bradley’s temperament may not do well in Cubbie-land. If he gets off to a good start, he may be alright. But if doesn’t and the bleacher bums get on him, and he gets moody, or explodes on Piniella, things could be ugly.

by clack on Mar 21, 2009 6:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Reed Johnson gives them a decent backup so if he plays about 125 games or so I don’t think it’ll be a big deal. RF in Wrigley is difficult though. And there is the brick wall and those foul territory bullpen pitching mounds.

by ol Pete on Mar 21, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

er-uh

really? only two of the group have shown they can have all-star type seasons.
i guess you must expect ludwick to fall of the face of the earth. 5th, are you kidding me?

a .318 obp is going to pass a .375 obp in one year, when the .318 has a hole in his swing the size of texas?
if you can spin it, pence is out. he must be killing the breaking pitches this spring.
homerism is legal, enjoy.

by ball in play on Mar 21, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

well

i wrote right off the bat:

I’ll say this first- I could have gone with Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick or Corey Hart here, and had good arguments for each.

Basically, any of these guys besides Moss had “first place” qualities to them…I like Bruce and Pence’s potential, Bradley’s OPS, and Hart’s 20/20 ability..Ludwick may end up being tops or better than some of those aforementioned guys, but my opinion is that he won’t

by HighLeveragePerformer on Mar 21, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope Hunter Pence is at least second best of the group

Milton Bradley should fall if for no other reason than controversy and resulting team discord follow him (even when it’s not really his fault).

Ludwick should be higher – probably Numero Uno.

Corey Hart is an Astros killer so I’d rank him higher too .

Overall though, the NL Central features some excellent right fielders. (and one Cecil Fielder -that’s a joke son)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 21, 2009 11:25 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Brewers looking stronger than experts predict

The experts apparently feel the loss of two front line pitchers hurt the Brewers . This exercise though indicates the Brewers will separate themselves from the pack, trailing only the “mighty” Cubs.

It would be interesting for a tweaking of the reslts based on opening day rosters. I coudl not say much about the other teams, but Houston may receive different rankings at catcher and third (and in my opinion a higher ranking at starting pitching) than was rightfully given to the team in the first go -round.

It is reassuring (maybe misleading) to see the Astros strolling in at third place in the division.

Do you have more positions to go? I cannot recall if starting, middle relief and closer were done already or if they were to be split into different categories, or if bench players, managers, organizations, minor league depth, GMs, owners, fan base, and media interference wil be evaluated.

Whatever, I’ve enjoyed the evaluations . Kudos to HLP for quality job.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 21, 2009 11:41 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hart can be a hacker

He played too many innings last year and got into the all-star game so not only missed that break but was involved in the voting process that got him in. New manager and hitting coach are at least emphasizing approach at the plate. So far this Spring Hart is hot as a pistol, but we’ll see.

by ol Pete on Mar 21, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 2.10.2010 at 5:43 AM CST)


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