Astros roster begins to take shape
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 15, 2009 7:20 PM CDT
17 comments
Before game time today—which was yet another loss—the Astros whittled down their roster further. There aren't a lot of surprises in this mix, but I think the moves bear some analysis.
Here's the story; here are some block quotes:
Five were optioned to Triple-A Round Rock: infielder Drew Sutton, outfielder Yordany Ramirez, right-hander Sammy Gervacio and lefties Tyler Lumsden and Polin Trinidad.
The Astros also reassigned infielder Mark Saccomanno to Minor League camp.
Like I said, none of these moves are overly surprising. I can't say that I'm not disappointed to see Sutton optioned to Round Rock, but in the end, it's probably the best for his career path. It's also not like we won't see him called up when Kaz inevitably goes down with an injury at some point—so godspeed Drew. Ramirez is so gifted defensively, but aside from a short stint at the Padres AAA affiliate where he mashed, he hasn't done much to warrant a major league job, but maybe he'll develop into a serviceable fifth outfielder in the future.
Sending the lefties down was interesting, because it came on the heels of Hensely being slotted into the bullpen and leaving the rotation race. However, that move doesn't give us anymore lefties in the bullpen, so it'll be interesting to see how Cooper is able to play his platoon split strategy during the season. According to the article above, Trinidad will start at AAA, but it sounded like Lumsden will stay in the bull pen. Coop was impressed with Trindad and expects to see him at in the bigs sometime this season; that's not an overly bold prediction given that Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz will ostensibly be our 3/4/5 to start the season (maybe Capellan after today's effort too?).
The final stop on today's recap of where we're at is Brandon Backe and Alberto Arias. Backe is apparently no closer to starting, with no idea when to begin. There's been a lot of ink spilled about us releasing him so that we don't have to pay his $1.55 million contract, but I think that's a bad idea. Yes, he's Brandon Backe, but at least we know he can be around replacement level for us. This team is shallow on starting pitching depth, and I think $1.55 million is worth a DL slot and at least hedging our bets against our ridiculously old rotation. That brings me to Arias, whose IP this Spring Training had indicated the Astros were shoping him as a bullpen only candidate, but that status was finally confirmed, for me at least, yesterday in this article. We've talked about Arias a lot over the offseason, so this doesn't make a whole lot sense to me. Paulino doesn't look ready to be a starter; Ortiz, Hampton, and Moehler are old; Backe and Wandy are dubious for health reasons right now; and Hensley has been pushed to the bullpen. So why on Earth are we not trying to cultivate a guy who has the promise of a starter to be a starter?
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Alberto Arias
I thought he was being looked at as a starter as well, but a glance at the depth chart on the official Astros site has him in the bullpen.
But then again,
that very same depth chart has Toby Hall backing up Towles at the catcher position with Jason Castro as the third backup, with nary a mention of Q.
I agree with you on Arias.....
I have been disappointed that Cooper never acknwledged him as a competitor for the 5th starter slot. It is almost impossible for him to make the roster in the bullpen, unless someone is injured. The media, at least, seems to think it is a cinch that everyone from last year’s bullpen will be come back. I don’t know Arias’ options status, but I hope he doesn’t have to clear waivers to be sent down to Round Rock.
He looks like he has plenty of options left
But I’m not an expert on that.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 15, 2009 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe it could be that all the ex-Royals have taken up starters spots down in Round Rock and the club thinks they profile better than Arias does? He was pitching in relief for Colorado when we picked him up.
Yeah
But I imagine that he was converted to a reliever because he wasn’t an effective, from a GB standpoint, at AAA Colorado Springs and Coors Field. He was fairly successful at the early stages of his career at the lower minor league levels as a starter. I just don’t see why we’re discounting him.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 15, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions
As for Backe, that is a tough call...
Assumng he doesn’t make the 25 man roster—and his injury hurts him with that—he will have to clear waivers. If the Astros think he won’t make the 25 man, I could see them eyeing the savings on his contract. If the Astros would use the savings to sign someone who might help the team (like Pedro Martinez or Pudge), I might be OK with it.
would it really be worth it for the Astros?
Both Rodriguez and Pedro are asking for about $4-6 million. That’s really freaking cheap, but I don’t think just adding either (or both) of those players is suddenly going to give the Astros a shot at contending. I’d rather seem them save that money for draft bonuses or signing foreign prospects.
True for Pudge
But I think Pedro could be an asset.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 15, 2009 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions
But I agree
If money is really as tight as they say it is, then we need to keep it for the draft picks, but I also don’t believe that money is as tight as they say it is. Especially because draft bonuses are amortized.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 15, 2009 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah, but
unless the Astros make the playoffs, what’s the point? Every team is faced with a tradeoff between the future performance of their club and the current product. If the goal is to win a championship, then money spent getting the club to a better-but-still-not-playoff-bound point is essentially wasted (this ignores, of course, the effect of winning on attendance, but I don’t think the attendance figures for a 75-win club is that different from a 70-win club).
I think the best strategy Wade and Drayton could take would be to dump salary early on (mostly by trading Valverde and the rest of the bullpen – maybe not Wesley, though – for prospects), eat Tejada’s salary for the year (teams might be willing to give the Astros something for him if Drayton’s willing to pay some or all of his salary), play their crappy minor league talent, see what sticks, and prepare themselves for the upcoming offseason (when they’ll suddenly have something like $40 million coming off the major league roster). Even if Drayton is making out a lot better than he lets on, he needs to shift the Astros’ tradeoff from the “current product” end of the scale to the “future performance” end. Doing otherwise is wasteful.
This season is going to be shit no matter what happens. But they can make it into a productive shit – kinda like a sac bunt instead of a GIDP. But I just don’t see the acquisition of anyone available right now as really pushing the Astros into wild card contention.
obviously, however, there is some danger
to pursuing such a strategy. You’d certainly piss off Oswalt by tanking the season.
actually,
the more I look at the Astros’ contractual situations, the more hopeful I get for the near future. If Wade plays his cards right, he might be able to get a few relatively good prospects. Teams tend to overpay for relievers, and the Astros have lots of ‘em. Valverde’s contract (if pawned quickly enough) can be worth a lot (the problem is that he’ll only be around for a season. With the current economic climate, Jose might be willing to just sign a short-term deal with whoever holds his contract, so he might be worth something even to teams looking for something longer-term than one season. Hawkins, Geary, and maybe even Brocail (should he pitch well enough to start the season) could all be worht something. None are worth a team’s top prospect, but the Astros could use virtually anything a team is willing to part with.
Really (and I think it was Clack who pointed this out not too long ago) possibly the one good thing that Wade and Purpura did at the major-league level was in free agency. Other than Oswalt, Berkman, Kaz, and Lee, the Astros aren’t tied to anybody after this season is over.
Good God, I hope Wade can/will do something with what he has.
I love the proliferation of the yeah buts
I see you point, and I agree whole heartily, but I was saying if we’re going to make a move that Pedro is the better option, and that we can’t let that get in the way of picks. There’s no problem with trying to make the present product as good as possible, if you’re not going to sacrifice the future.
Having said that, I’m down for your proposed plan.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 16, 2009 3:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I have seen no specific salaries mentioned.
I think it is possible Pudge may have to accept $1 million. He has said he will play for anything, if it comes down to it. He doesn’t have many options at this point. I think $1.5 million w/ incentive would be fair for a pitcher like Pedro coming off injury. I don’t know if he would accept it, though.
Obviously, shedding Backe’s salary doesn’t help much if the replacement salary is $4 – $6 million. So my comment assumes that it might be used to get a bargain in the $2 million or less range. Given those conditions, the question is “would Pudge help this team more than Backe?” would Pedro help this team more than Backe?" My answer is yes to both.
If we're dumping Backe for those guys
Hell yes. I had missed that thread of your logic. I still think it’d be better for us to go after Pedro, just because of our scarcity of depth at SP. I think there’s only so much upside possible at catcher for us, but Pedro could be a 2 WAR player for us if hit’s his 60th or 75th percentiles, where as Pudge isn’t going to start getting on base and doing the other things we need him to do. So I’m going to go dump Backe, take Pedro on a date.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 16, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
actually Pedro is a guy..if you got some luck...
who might put the Astros closer to contending. If he could get back to anything close to his 2005 days with the Mets, you start to have a more imposing rotation with Oswalt, Pedro, Wandy, and Hampy. Of course that is a big “if.” But I watched Pedro some, even when he was injured, and he showed a lot of craftiness in getting outs with weak stuff. If the surgery gets his velocity back a little, he could have a year or two of good pitching.
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Monday, Sep 6, 2010, 1:20 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Casey Coleman Sunny. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80. |
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