Astros Farm System Question #1- How Many Express Arms Will Make it to MMP?
by farm_stros on Feb 25, 2009 5:11 PM CST
in Minor League News
14 comments
The lack of talent in the Astros system has been well-documented. However, one source of hope at least for this season is the AAA pitching corps.
Heading out of Spring Training in 2008, the Astros had basically no chance of receiving any help by calling a young arm up from their AAA affiliate, Round Rock. By season's end, call-ups Jack Cassel and Fernando Nieve combined for only one win, pitching 41 innings in 20 appearances between them.
In contrast to last year's minimal production by call-ups and the bleak picture painted by most concerning the Astros minor league system in general, there is hope for improvement in the area of young arms at the highest minor league level this Spring.
The improvement begins with Bud Norris, who spent last season in Corpus Christi. He also participated in the Arizona Fall League. His 2008 was good enough that he received a major league training camp invite and has a chance to leave Florida with the big club most likely as a reliever.
After Norris, Felipe Paulino and Fernando Nieve are next in line. Both pitchers struggled with injuries in 2008. However, if they are healthy, they could contribute to the big club.
Another arm to look for getting a few starts in 2009 is Polin Trinidad. Trinidad, a lefty, split 2008 between Salem and Corpus Christi. It will be interesting to see if he starts at Corpus or Round Rock. My guess is Corpus. If the big league rotation struggles or is injured, Trinidad could get a chance to contribute. From all I've read, he is not overpowering, but he is crafty enough to get outs.
Chris Blazek and Sammy Gervacio look to be ticketed for the Round Rock bullpen this Spring. However, the lefty and righty have high K/BB numbers and could fill in the Astros bullpen as the year progresses. This is more likely for Gervacio since he is on the 40-man roster and the Astros already have two lefties in the bullpen in Wesley Wright and Tim Byrdak, not to mention Rule 5 draftee Gilbert de La Vara.
Longshots to contribute at the top level include Brad James and Josh Muecke. James pitched in Corpus in '08 missing some time to injury. Muecke was the most reliable starter at Round Rock. However, he faded as the season wore on. I have heard him mentioned as a possible bullpen candidate, although he has been mainly a starter in the minors.
With as many as eight candidates, the traffic of pitchers on Highway 71 between Houston and Austin this baseball season looks to be more active and productive than last.
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Nieve and Paulino look like the only young guys for the rotation.
(Of course, Hensley, Capellan, or Ortiz could end up in RR and be first call ups if the bullpen falters.) Nieve has to clear waivers in order to be start the season in Round Rock. Who knows if he would clear waivers. I am guessing “yes.”
You are making a case that a lot more bullpen help may be available. That’s good. Almost all bullpens have turnover during the season. If some of the young guys look good, I wonder if the Astros would consider trading one of the expected bullpen relievers (say, Byrdak or Geary) for something they need?
Trade Geary
TBH, I would be perfectly comfortable trading Geary now. I like our bullpen, I beleive it’s our greatest strength, however given Geary is coming off a career year and will almost certainly regress this year, coupled with the fact that I think we can cover his loss pretty well with what we currently already have.
Also, an extra $1.7 Mil off the books can’t hurt, especially during these penny pinching times.
The big question would be, what could we get for him?
Not much
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Feb 26, 2009 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
Arias looks to probably nibble on some major league innings this season.
There’s always room for a groundball pitcher.
Always
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Feb 26, 2009 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
The Bullpen
will have to be the backbone of this pitching staff, although we would like to have that in a solid rotation. Of course both would be great. Ortiz just might pitch his way into that 5th spot. Overall pitching did seem good except for Graves.
Some of the young guys had a good day at the plate…Saccomano, Johnson, Sutton and Manzella.
Stros take on the Braves tomorrow at Disney at 12:05 pm CT on ESPN as Oswalt takes the mound.
Good Call...
on the game being televised tomorrow, looks like i’ll grab a six-pack and grill it up. Go ’Stros.
Also, I agree with baggs, I think the Astros should shop Geary.
A Walk Is As Good As A Hit.
Agreed
i’ve been thinking about this as a good option for a while…if we have anybody in our minors ready for the majors, its guys ready for the bullpen. We’ve been hearing about all these arms that could be major league ready and will be getting opportunities to compete for the bullpen but theres not a spot open in the bullpen unless we send somebody from last years bullpen down to AAA. Every guy is a veteran or is young and is expected to do even better like Wesley Wright. So a trade seems logical. We drafted Gilbert de la Vara in the rule 5 to compete for a bullpen shot but theres not an opening. Trade somebody out of the bullpen so people like Norris, de la Vara, or any of the others can take the open spot. If i’m any of the guys trying to get in the bullpen i’m thinking there’s not a spot there for me. Give them an oportunity and it will actually give them some motivation cause a rotation spot is the only motivation for these guys right now and half of them aren’t even considered for that spot.
Honest question
How prevalent is it for a team to trade a player in the middle of Spring Training? Anybody got some good examples to throw around?
by littlevisigoth on Feb 26, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions
I knowi it happens....
And I know there are some more significant examples around the league (I can’t recall them at the moment though), but usually it is lessor players. And that’s because teams tend to worry more about their 40 man and 25 man roster limitations as they get further along in the spring. Tim Redding comes to mind when I think of the Astros. McEwing was traded to Astros before spring training was over a couple of years ago.
I forgot this Astros' trade....
Mike Lamb was traded by the Yankees to the Astros in the later stages of spring training.
Another reason spring training trades occur is if teams get some key injuries during the spring. It seems like some springs are active in transactions and others not so much…probably has to do with injury luck and so forth.
Minor league pitching
If the Astros have arms that will make it to ML why was every minor league affilate under .500? (I think there was only one exception)
two reasons
1) player development is not all about winning or losing… a pitching prospect can have a crappy ERA, but if he’s working through his mechanics and developing pitches like the coaches want him to, they don’t care.
2) just because a team stinks, doesn’t mean all their players stink.
not that I’m arguing that the Astros have great major league-ready arms, but even in the worst performing farm systems, there will be a few players that turn out to be major league quality, and if you’re talking about bullpen guys like Gervacio, he’d have a pretty minimal impact on wins and losses, no matter how good he is at his job.
by littlevisigoth on Feb 26, 2009 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
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