Astros Community Projection Project: PECOTA Update
by DyingQuail on Feb 25, 2009 4:00 AM CST
4 comments
I've yet to go through and figure out where the tweaks we've thrown out on individual players are, but I went through and averaged the CHONE and PECOTA projected wOBA's for the hitters. There were a few players that CHONE and PECOTA drastically disagreed with, but all in all, there are fairly minor changes through out.
The project now envisions the Astros to be an 82 Win team. There are still a few tweaks that I need to make over the following week, of course, but I'm pretty excited about where it sees us right now. It's enough to at least keep the season interesting if we out perform that mark, or if the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals struggle.
Here's what the spread sheet looks like now. Feel free to chime in with disagreements and, more importantly, modifications that need to be made for playing time and positions (in fact, I beseech thee). I know Newhan needs to go in there (most likely) so throw out some PA guesstimates with those critiques.
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Didn't we tweak the CHONE projections at one point?
Not that I recall exactly. How did you handle that in averaging PECOTA and CHONE?
by clack on Feb 25, 2009 7:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It was a straight average of the PECOTA and CHONE generated wOBA
I’m pretty sure it’s sloppy, but it’s hopefully sloppy on the players that we need to actually discuss. For the most part, however, PECOTA and CHONE weren’t of by more than .005 on most of the hitters.
We made tweaks of the CHONE, but I was hoping that the PECOTA edits would generate more discussion, etc. It has gotten burried pretty fast though, so maybe I’ll just makes the tweaks and repost on a slower day.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Feb 25, 2009 9:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How do Wandy and Roy have such a high ERA?
I don’t believe it.
by entropic soul on Feb 26, 2009 12:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The ERA's have been generated using tRA*
from http://www.statcorner.com
I used a weighted average of their last three years of tRA* (which is a normalized measure of a pitcher’s true performance). They both look a little high, but I think some of the other pitcher’s look a little low. It’s the best happy medium that the project could find…I think.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Feb 26, 2009 12:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 11:43 PM CST)
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