This is the Astros??
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 11, 2009 10:33 AM CST
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PrintAs I'm sure a lot of ya'll know, PECOTA has released it's prediction on the 2009 standings. Things do not look good for the Astros- 66 wins, and the second worst offense in baseball (two runs better than the Padres).
I sit in relative disbelief that this is the team I cheer so hard for. Does anyone else get that feeling? Are our glasses that rose colored? I realize that there isn't much room for improvement for a great deal of our players, but from everything we've written and discussed about this off season, I think this team has more than enough talent to reach those 66 wins. Worse case scenario I must admit a 66 win season may not be out of the realm of possibility. We can all save our season predictions for late in Spring Training, but PECOTA definitely made me sit up in my chair a little more.
Here are a few of the more prominent projection systems' 2008 projected standings (PECOTA is included). The Astros were slated to finish 74-88 under PECOTA.
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How accurate
Is PECOTA typically when it comes to these things? I’m new to all of these shenanigans…
this may help
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-how-did-tht-projections-do/
PECOTA has proved to be pretty good at predicting pitcher performances
I’ll link their 2008 projections in the article
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 11, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
PECOTA is great when it comes to predicting individual performances from year to year,
the problem is that it can’t predict playing time. This leads to some fairly odd predictions.
For instance, I seriously doubt that Milton Bradley will be able to play 70% of the Cubs’ games in RF. He played DH almost exclusively last year, and even then he played less than they predict for him this year.
Similarly, they have Koby Clemens playing 15% of the time at 3b. That seems pretty optimistic, given that Clemens isn’t even in AA yet, and that he was converted to catcher last year. I’d also bet that, if Backe performs as poorly as he is predicted, he will be replaced.
Additionally, as Clack points out, BPro just isn’t very good at predicting defensive performances. I blame it on catering to fantasy players for years, but they’re getting better. The Astros were very good last year on defense, and there’s no reason to believe that was entirely a fluke.
So I’d say that 65 wins is a bit low. I’d buy anything around 75 as a reasonable but slightly pessimistic outlook.
66 wins?? At least we wont be losing money right Drayton?
I am by no means a economic genius, but dont they say “buy low, and sell high.” It seems to me like this a pretty decent time for the Astros to spend a bit of cash. Sure, Drayton might lose a few million dollars, but he is a Billionaire, hes got thousands of millions to spare. Why not lock in a few semi long term contracts with players at a huge discount. Or should we wait until the economy turns around so we can bitch and moan that we cant compete with big market teams. 66 wins is shameful. We talk about not bringing in guys like Dunn, or hell even Manny because our outfield would be too bad. At least there, we might actually outhit a a few teams. As it stands now, we can’t out hit or out pitch anyone unless Roy is on the hill. We couldn’t spare a few million for a guy like Braden Looper? Sure hes not amazing, but arent we the team that paid Jennings and Williams 30 million. I wouldnt mind having another 200 IP pitcher. Better than Backe’s stat line of 31 starts for 160 IP.
"Line drive right-center field, THAT'S NUMBER 3000!!!"
My recollection is that BP's pre-season standings consistently...
underestimate the Astros’ final record (at least in recent years…and maybe not in 07). As I said previously, BP’s stats generally deal poorly with defense, at least compared to other methods. I don’t think 66 wins is outside the realm of possibility, but I view it as unduly pessimistic. If a significant player suffers a major performance collapse or the Astrros suffer a lot of injuries, maybe it could happen. The Astros’ depth is fairly thin, and injuries are something to fear.
The astros should take a flier
on some pitcher. I mean, we’re depending on Mike Hampton being our two?! Why don’t we just sign Kip Wells and Kris Benson also, maybe they’ll deliver. Is Mark Mulder available?
In all seriousness, how is an extra million or two on a decent pitcher to make sure we don’t have to depend on Backe or Hensley or Ortiz or Nieve or Paulino going to catapult our franchise into dept? Drayton is either Mr. Moneybag or Scrooge
mulder is a free agent
http://www.kffl.com/player/4861/MLB
The Brewers have pondered signing him, apparently
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 11, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
It was sort of meant as a joke,
and a play on what the astros did signing Hampton. Let’s just sign every injured former-decent pitcher instead of getting a good pitcher.
BPro today....
notes how well they predict the performances of Rookies
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 11, 2009 12:49 PM CST reply actions
66 wins might be low, but
On paper, this is a very bad team. The pitching staff is abysmal. The offense, besides Lee, Berkman and maybe Pence, is a joke.
As they say, they don’t play games on paper, and hope springs eternal. But I can’t say that I was suprised to see a statistical analysis pegging this team as one of the worst in baseball.
I try and see the glass half full....
I don’t think that the Astros EVER get enough credit. Sure they look bad on paper, but when have the Astros ever followed the paper? I say 80 Wins at best. Roy O is great, Mike Hampton(more than 7 games), Wandy will be great, Moehler will be good, and Backe will not be great. I’m not sure on the hitters yet.
GO ASTROS
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 12:05 PM CST)
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